Nate Silver thinks Trump will overperform his polling again because he did so twice before

[7,052,770]

Trump 2024 is an entirely different candidate than 2020 then 2016.

In 2016 he was new and brash and maybe even a little moderate

In 2020 he was an incumbent with a devoured base

In 2024 he is a disgraced, twice impeached, treasonous, felon.

He has so much more baggage now then ever before.

Also it’s bizarre to think the polls will fail the same way three times. If that’s the case then the polling industry is useless. Good polling should have unpredictable errors, not the same routine issues.

Your opinion

That's sad yet insightful commentary on America in 2024.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden already said he doesn't believe these polls, I can't wait for 26 we can finally win TX and OH with a Trump off the ballot Guiterrez will be at Cornyn and put TX and OH back into blue column

[DrScholl]

Okay so we got:

(1): Trump voters are so excited they'll respond to any robocall that asks if they will vote Trump but will just forget to show up on Nov. 5; whereas Biden voters are unenthusiastic but will show a North Korean resolve to show up for him

(2): Democratic SOSs will somehow cancel Trump voter driver licenses

Hey I guess if that's all you got, you got to find some way to live with it. I figure I'd spend the next 6 months thinking about ways to fix the favorability issue than believing in increasingly baroque ways that it won't matter.

But the Biden administration in a nutshell is pretending a problem doesn't exist > gaslighting you it doesn't exist > admitting it exists but it couldn't have been predicted or stopped > saying they'll fix it (maybe) at enormous cost after it's already gotten so bad as to be embarrassing.

Not what I meant but if it kept Trump out of office I wouldn't care. My point was Trump doesn't have people to close precincts, limit voting by mail and other assorted tricks Republicans have used to manipulate elections. There is a reason Trump fought to hard to get Republicans elected to elections offices.

The other point is that just because Biden doesn't have a cult doesn't mean he can't win. Democrats have acquired a number of voters that once voted Republican but were often missed by polling.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

With all due respect, if Silver really believes this, he's just an overrated jerk.

Why is he jerk for stating his opinion.

Or is he a jerk because his opinion isn't yours?.

Like you still - despite all the polls indicating otherwise - believe Biden is headed for quite an easy re-election victory. You're genuinely not worried at all. You seem to act from a holy belief that Trump is too unpopular to even get elected president?

How did you respond when seeing the 2016 results. Are you a jerk for having that opinion and ignoring the dynamics of today?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Trump 2024 is an entirely different candidate than 2020 then 2016.

In 2016 he was new and brash and maybe even a little moderate

In 2020 he was an incumbent with a devoured base

In 2024 he is a disgraced, twice impeached, treasonous, felon.

He has so much more baggage now then ever before.

Also it’s bizarre to think the polls will fail the same way three times. If that’s the case then the polling industry is useless. Good polling should have unpredictable errors, not the same routine issues.

Sure but plenty of people on the forums who don't believe the polls at all and think Biden is still doing fine. Sure, admittably a greater number of users are starting to get increasingly worried, but quite a lot are still not really grounded in reality imo.

Things really have to change, they might, it's still 6 months till election day, but as the race stands today, Trump is headed for election victory. Even if the polls are just accurate.

[Tekken_Guy]

Trump 2024 is an entirely different candidate than 2020 then 2016.

In 2016 he was new and brash and maybe even a little moderate

In 2020 he was an incumbent with a devoured base

In 2024 he is a disgraced, twice impeached, treasonous, felon.

He has so much more baggage now then ever before.

Also it’s bizarre to think the polls will fail the same way three times. If that’s the case then the polling industry is useless. Good polling should have unpredictable errors, not the same routine issues.

Sure but plenty of people on the forums who don't believe the polls at all and think Biden is still doing fine. Sure, admittably a greater number of users are starting to get increasingly worried, but quite a lot are still not really grounded in reality imo.

Things really have to change, they might, it's still 6 months till election day, but as the race stands today, Trump is headed for election victory. Even if the polls are just accurate.

No, the race is a toss-up that will be decided in the rust belt.

[RI]

I suspect that if you add two or three points to Trump's vote share in the polls for this and give the rest of the undecideds to Biden (who are mostly Dems who will come home) and assume RFK ends up about where Gary Johnson did in 2016, then you'll be fairly close to reality.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Trump 2024 is an entirely different candidate than 2020 then 2016.

In 2016 he was new and brash and maybe even a little moderate

In 2020 he was an incumbent with a devoured base

In 2024 he is a disgraced, twice impeached, treasonous, felon.

He has so much more baggage now then ever before.

Also it’s bizarre to think the polls will fail the same way three times. If that’s the case then the polling industry is useless. Good polling should have unpredictable errors, not the same routine issues.

Sure but plenty of people on the forums who don't believe the polls at all and think Biden is still doing fine. Sure, admittably a greater number of users are starting to get increasingly worried, but quite a lot are still not really grounded in reality imo.

Things really have to change, they might, it's still 6 months till election day, but as the race stands today, Trump is headed for election victory. Even if the polls are just accurate.

No, the race is a toss-up that will be decided in the rust belt.

Biden needs to win all 3 to win the election if you believe the Sun Belt is not really in play anymore. Trump just needs to win 1.

He came very close in WI already last time. Not much is needed there to change the race. The dynamics in MI almost guarantee Trump will do better, the question being by how much. And Philly isn't really a city Biden does well in (Clinton did better in 2016 in Philly).

Again he only needs one, Trump.

You're saying why Biden still has a fighting shot, which I agree with.

I'm not categorizing this race as Safe Trump. But Trump has the clear advantage now objectively. That advantage might dissipate. Biden has time on his side, but something will have to change.

If this still is the situation in september/october than i think he's done. He needs a good summer, and Gaza out of the news by august, to prevent a chaotic convention and because what is still news in september will impact people's choices for november.

We will know more by august/early september, the following 3 months something has to happen that favours Biden and changes the race, even a ceasefire would already do a lot.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NY T HAS BIDEN AHEAD IF THEY SAY HE IS AHEAD HE IS WHY WOULD YOU MAKE AN R NUT MAP AND TRAFALGAR HAD AN R NUT MAP IN 22 AND IT WAS WRONG AL LA OZ DEF FETTERMAN PA DUE TO FETTERMAN POOR PERFORMANCE IN DEBATE

I never make R nut maps and usually except 2010/14 before the Pandemic they never happened

[Thunder98]

Did Trump overperform in 2020 outside of Florida?

Trump outperformed WI by about 8%, PA by 3.5%, Just over 5% in MI, 1% in GA, 3% in NC, 3% in AZ, 3% in NV, 5.5% in TX, Over 7% in OH and about 7% in IA.

[EastwoodS]

Trump 2024 is an entirely different candidate than 2020 then 2016.

In 2016 he was new and brash and maybe even a little moderate

In 2020 he was an incumbent with a devoured base

In 2024 he is a disgraced, twice impeached, treasonous, felon.

He has so much more baggage now then ever before.

Also it’s bizarre to think the polls will fail the same way three times. If that’s the case then the polling industry is useless. Good polling should have unpredictable errors, not the same routine issues.

Your opinion

Your opinion is that he hasn't been impeached twice?

There are opinions in that statement.

[TechbroMBA]

I don't see what's so hard to understand.

Mike Tyson is a beloved convicted rapist. OJ Simpson was a largely hated acquitted man. Public opinion isn't the same as what the court rules.

Convicting Trump on some extraneous stuff around document retention or campaign expenses, which will then get appealed, isn't going to be the silver bullet the MSNBC cultists want.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Would Mr. Silver be interested in a wager involving this coin I have which has come up "tails" not two, but three times ina row?

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Reasonable assumption. 

A lot more reasonable than the wishcasting that a polling error will be in favor of Biden.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't see what's so hard to understand.

Mike Tyson is a beloved convicted rapist. OJ Simpson was a largely hated acquitted man. Public opinion isn't the same as what the court rules.

Convicting Trump on some extraneous stuff around document retention or campaign expenses, which will then get appealed, isn't going to be the silver bullet the MSNBC cultists want.

Don't you get it J6 was a terrible day Mike Tyson and OJ Simpson are athletes they aren't lying politicians like Trump, what a silly comment comparing athletes to an insurrection

[7,052,770]

If anyone needs any extra motivation to vote for Biden ... imagine how insufferable Nate Silver's gloating is going to be if Trump wins.

[CookieDamage]

"well it happened in the past so therefore it'll happen again for sure!"

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

As I keep pointing out, Trump is doing far too well to overperform these polls, and most of what they're finding are near-impossible margins (for either candidate). No swing state will be won by more than maybe 3% for either candidate.

Trump is too polarizing, and has yet to exceed 46.8% in the pooular vote. Third parties are obviously a big factor, granted. Though they're most likely being overestimated too right now.

I would disagree. The tipping point state in polling is only Trump+1 ish. That is barely to the right of 2020 (WI—Biden+.6) and par with 2016.

So Trump overperforming polling again could only yield a slightly bigger victory than 2016, which seems possible. If Rust Belt polls were showing double digit leads for Trump, I would agree with you, but they aren’t.

[BlueSwan]

Also it’s bizarre to think the polls will fail the same way three times. If that’s the case then the polling industry is useless. Good polling should have unpredictable errors, not the same routine issues.

Not bizarre at all. The polling errors of 2016/2020 were NOT random at all. They were systemic. The errors occured in the very same states and not in a random way. WI, IA and OH (three neighboring and quite similar states) had the biggest polling errors in both elections. Other midwest states not far behind. Polling very systematically underestimated Trump in midwest/rustbelt states. In 2020 we were led to believe that pollsters had changed their methodology as to not repeat the mistakes of 2016, yet the polling errors were even bigger in 2020.

Is it possible that THIS TIME around pollsters have infact overcorrected and are now overestimating Trump. Sure, it is POSSIBLE. Do we have any real reason to believe so outside of wishful thinking? Not really.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

this is my top fear regarding the election, that it's more of a 2020 instead of a 2022.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If anyone needs any extra motivation to vote for Biden ... imagine how insufferable Nate Silver's gloating is going to be if Trump wins.

this is my top fear regarding the election, that it's more of a 2020 instead of a 2022.

Why two polls came out showing Biden ahead of Trump and Biden Approvals in 22 is the same as they are now and we have 3 percent gas and 5 gas prices as it was in 22 it's VBM Da overperform in VBM because more Ds than Rs vote VBM

Chuck Todd said don't expect the 303 map to change in 24 because it's 3 percent inflation and 5.00 gas prices and it will be the same in 26/28 when we elect a new Prez

The S maps in 24/26/28 are the same

Daines can be beaten by Busse and Collins is gone in 26 and in 28 Johnson is gone to Rodriguez and Vance is endangered to Greg Landsman everything else should remain the same

[Inmate Trump]

We need to be very real about the possibility of Trump winning.

Right now, he’s the next president more likely than not.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I previously said Trump peaked out at 225 already so it's okay to overperform polls, not in 2016 but in 20/22

[Rubensim]

Honestly we should agree there a good chance that trump will get his second term
When your own voting ""Base"" is chanting your name with genocide next to it, it really doesn't paint a good picture.

[AlterEgo]

Honestly we should agree there a good chance that trump will get his second term
When your own voting ""Base"" is chanting your name with genocide next to it, it really doesn't paint a good picture.

It's cute that you think that extreme-left college students are the Democrats' "base."