Nate Silver thinks Trump will overperform his polling again because he did so twice before

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1790370911591276745?s=61&t=J4ObZwLK...

[Eraserhead]

If he's going to, Biden is toast. I'm not sure.

[Progressive Pessimist]

As I keep pointing out, Trump is doing far too well to overperform these polls, and most of what they're finding are near-impossible margins (for either candidate). No swing state will be won by more than maybe 3% for either candidate.

Trump is too polarizing, and has yet to exceed 46.8% in the pooular vote. Third parties are obviously a big factor, granted. Though they're most likely being overestimated too right now.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

Nate Plastic strikes again.

[President Johnson]

If that was accurate, Trump would win a 2008 or 1988-style landslide. In such a divided nation this seems pretty unrealistic. If someone accomplishes that, it certainly won't be the guy who couldn't get 47% of the vote twice and was a huge albatross around his party's neck in every post-2016 national election. Trump basically won nothing since 2016.

With all due respect, if Silver really believes this, he's just an overrated jerk.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I wish Pollster was still posting regularly. Last time I asked him he was sceptical that Trump will over-perform his polls this year and offered a detailed explanation why.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I wish Pollster was still posting regularly. Last time I asked him he was sceptical that Trump will over-perform his polls this year and offered a detailed explanation why.

Pollster has been accurate about a lot.

He nailed that New Jersey Republicans weren't going to have the election they wanted last year.

[TechbroMBA]

I find it a bit incredible that the most obvious conclusion to draw from everything we've seen is so hard for the media to grasp.

Biden beat Trump narrowly in the EC (but prettily handily in the PV) when Biden had strong net favorability and Trump had awful net favorability. Now Biden has the same or worse net favorability. That's either going to come out of his margin with mushy middle "undecided voters", or from lower turnout from a less enthusiastic Biden base, or a little bit from both.

The idea Biden will have extraordinary turnout and loyalty from an unenthusiastic and unhappy electorate is a surprising baseline Dem hacks seem to expect.

[iceman]

Shy Trump voters are here to stay but it is much more prevalent in the rust belt. That’s why all need to be cautious with the MI, PA, WI polls. If it shows only a 1-2 Biden lead, then the incumbent is in very deep trouble. We all saw that in 2016 and 2020 polling, but some people here just dismiss ir pretend that it didn’t exist.

Polling in Michigan 2020 consistently shows a Biden 6–7% win, in the end he only won it by a mere 2%

In Wisconsin it was even crazier at 7-9% Biden leads in the polls, but we all know how it ended up post election night.

[DrScholl]

Nate Silver is a simpleton desperate to be right about something after 2016. I've seen evidence that some Biden voters are not enthusiastic but will still turnout to vote for even if they aren't answering polling.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I find it a bit incredible that the most obvious conclusion to draw from everything we've seen is so hard for the media to grasp.

Biden beat Trump narrowly in the EC (but prettily handily in the PV) when Biden had strong net favorability and Trump had awful net favorability. Now Biden has the same or worse net favorability. That's either going to come out of his margin with mushy middle "undecided voters", or from lower turnout from a less enthusiastic Biden base, or a little bit from both.

The idea Biden will have extraordinary turnout and loyalty from an unenthusiastic and unhappy electorate is a surprising baseline Dem hacks seem to expect.

You're ignoring non-incumbent Trump in this, and how much opposition he inspires. Disapproval of Biden by most anti-Trump voters and Democrats will not be enough to allow most to sit out the election or vote third party-letting Trump win. Especially now that the Democratic base is better informed and higher propensity.

[TechbroMBA]

I find it a bit incredible that the most obvious conclusion to draw from everything we've seen is so hard for the media to grasp.

Biden beat Trump narrowly in the EC (but prettily handily in the PV) when Biden had strong net favorability and Trump had awful net favorability. Now Biden has the same or worse net favorability. That's either going to come out of his margin with mushy middle "undecided voters", or from lower turnout from a less enthusiastic Biden base, or a little bit from both.

The idea Biden will have extraordinary turnout and loyalty from an unenthusiastic and unhappy electorate is a surprising baseline Dem hacks seem to expect.

You're ignoring non-incumbent Trump in this, and how much opposition he inspires. Disapproval of Biden by most anti-Trump voters and Democrats will not be enough to allow most to sit out the election or vote third party-letting Trump win. Especially now that the Democratic base is better informed and higher propensity.

Dude - we just had this election four years ago. Nobody forgot about Trump, he never went away. Yet Biden's favorability has fallen to Trump's level even with that being the implicit (and now explicit) comparison.

2020 had the highest turnout in over a century, if you expect Biden to replicate that, with similar levels of margin amongst persuadable voters, when he has far worse favorability then you are starting with the conclusion you want, rather than starting with the information we have.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds overperform polls in 22 lol it's the same polls as wbrooks said as 22 I won't listen to blue avatars

We still have to vote

[Progressive Pessimist]

I find it a bit incredible that the most obvious conclusion to draw from everything we've seen is so hard for the media to grasp.

Biden beat Trump narrowly in the EC (but prettily handily in the PV) when Biden had strong net favorability and Trump had awful net favorability. Now Biden has the same or worse net favorability. That's either going to come out of his margin with mushy middle "undecided voters", or from lower turnout from a less enthusiastic Biden base, or a little bit from both.

The idea Biden will have extraordinary turnout and loyalty from an unenthusiastic and unhappy electorate is a surprising baseline Dem hacks seem to expect.

You're ignoring non-incumbent Trump in this, and how much opposition he inspires. Disapproval of Biden by most anti-Trump voters and Democrats will not be enough to allow most to sit out the election or vote third party-letting Trump win. Especially now that the Democratic base is better informed and higher propensity.

Dude - we just had this election four years ago. Nobody forgot about Trump, he never went away. Yet Biden's favorability has fallen to Trump's level even with that being the implicit (and now explicit) comparison.

2020 had the highest turnout in over a century, if you expect Biden to replicate that, with similar levels of margin amongst persuadable voters, when he has far worse favorability then you are starting with the conclusion you want, rather than starting with the information we have.

There's the theory now that high turnout benefits Republicans. If turnout is lower, which it will be, that might be an assist to Biden.

But really my perspective on the election comes down to this: I don't know why Biden is struggling in polls, but I really need to see a Trump landslide to believe it. Especially after the 2022 midterms.

[DrScholl]

I find it a bit incredible that the most obvious conclusion to draw from everything we've seen is so hard for the media to grasp.

Biden beat Trump narrowly in the EC (but prettily handily in the PV) when Biden had strong net favorability and Trump had awful net favorability. Now Biden has the same or worse net favorability. That's either going to come out of his margin with mushy middle "undecided voters", or from lower turnout from a less enthusiastic Biden base, or a little bit from both.

The idea Biden will have extraordinary turnout and loyalty from an unenthusiastic and unhappy electorate is a surprising baseline Dem hacks seem to expect.

You're ignoring non-incumbent Trump in this, and how much opposition he inspires. Disapproval of Biden by most anti-Trump voters and Democrats will not be enough to allow most to sit out the election or vote third party-letting Trump win. Especially now that the Democratic base is better informed and higher propensity.

Dude - we just had this election four years ago. Nobody forgot about Trump, he never went away. Yet Biden's favorability has fallen to Trump's level even with that being the implicit (and now explicit) comparison.

2020 had the highest turnout in over a century, if you expect Biden to replicate that, with similar levels of margin amongst persuadable voters, when he has far worse favorability then you are starting with the conclusion you want, rather than starting with the information we have.

Democrats control the SOS offices in several key states. The same wasn't true in 2016. Make of that what you will. Logistics matter and without his people in control the game is different.

[TechbroMBA]

Okay so we got:

(1): Trump voters are so excited they'll respond to any robocall that asks if they will vote Trump but will just forget to show up on Nov. 5; whereas Biden voters are unenthusiastic but will show a North Korean resolve to show up for him

(2): Democratic SOSs will somehow cancel Trump voter driver licenses

Hey I guess if that's all you got, you got to find some way to live with it. I figure I'd spend the next 6 months thinking about ways to fix the favorability issue than believing in increasingly baroque ways that it won't matter.

But the Biden administration in a nutshell is pretending a problem doesn't exist > gaslighting you it doesn't exist > admitting it exists but it couldn't have been predicted or stopped > saying they'll fix it (maybe) at enormous cost after it's already gotten so bad as to be embarrassing.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Trump 2024 is an entirely different candidate than 2020 then 2016.

In 2016 he was new and brash and maybe even a little moderate

In 2020 he was an incumbent with a devoured base

In 2024 he is a disgraced, twice impeached, treasonous, felon.

He has so much more baggage now then ever before.

Also it’s bizarre to think the polls will fail the same way three times. If that’s the case then the polling industry is useless. Good polling should have unpredictable errors, not the same routine issues.

[Del Tachi]

Be back here Nov 6th when Trump wins with the 327-211 map.

[HisGrace]

Did Trump overperform in 2020 outside of Florida?

[7,052,770]

Pollsters have been pretty open about the fact they've changed their models in response to underestimating Trump in 2016 and 2020. Whether they've gotten it right now, or they've overcompensated remains to be seen, but there is reason to believe that Trump's overperfomance is less likely to repeat this year

[kwabbit]

He's not saying this at all. He's saying that it's foolish to assume that Biden will outperform polling on the basis of 2022 when 2016 and 2020 both famously underestimated Trump. That's not saying Trump will overperform. Nate Silver has said a million times that polling errors are not predictable.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We still gotta vote these polls are hogwash it's a 303 map that Silver is known to refer to which is so silly he says this

Yeah Trump overperform polls but it was still a 303 map in 20, 22

[EastwoodS]

Trump 2024 is an entirely different candidate than 2020 then 2016.

In 2016 he was new and brash and maybe even a little moderate

In 2020 he was an incumbent with a devoured base

In 2024 he is a disgraced, twice impeached, treasonous, felon.

He has so much more baggage now then ever before.

Also it’s bizarre to think the polls will fail the same way three times. If that’s the case then the polling industry is useless. Good polling should have unpredictable errors, not the same routine issues.

Your opinion

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump 2024 is an entirely different candidate than 2020 then 2016.

In 2016 he was new and brash and maybe even a little moderate

In 2020 he was an incumbent with a devoured base

In 2024 he is a disgraced, twice impeached, treasonous, felon.

He has so much more baggage now then ever before.

Also it’s bizarre to think the polls will fail the same way three times. If that’s the case then the polling industry is useless. Good polling should have unpredictable errors, not the same routine issues.

Your opinion

Everyone is giving their opinion look at the poll database and see how badly the polls were off Rs act like since Trump is ahead the polls are so accurate, they werent in 22 especially Trafalgar

Due to the fact the polls keep going by Gallup 39 percent Approval and Biden has been closer to 50 if you watch MSNBC not Fox news Steve Konaki said Biden is at 45 not Gallup 37

The polls want to create a narrative that Trump can win

If polls were so accurate why Rs keep losing they haven't won since 2016


Learn to win an Eday first not go by polls, I post polls myself too and Trafalgar was wrong

[Landslide Lyndon]

Trump 2024 is an entirely different candidate than 2020 then 2016.

In 2016 he was new and brash and maybe even a little moderate

In 2020 he was an incumbent with a devoured base

In 2024 he is a disgraced, twice impeached, treasonous, felon.

He has so much more baggage now then ever before.

Also it’s bizarre to think the polls will fail the same way three times. If that’s the case then the polling industry is useless. Good polling should have unpredictable errors, not the same routine issues.

Your opinion

Your opinion is that he hasn't been impeached twice?