Mid-May 2024: Who wins the swing states?

[Tekken_Guy]

Doing this polo again now that it’s mid-May. Have things changed these past few weeks?

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Same as always

[GeorgiaModerate]

2023?

[Tekken_Guy]

2023?

Oops.

[Radicalneo]

Biden wins AZ,MI,PA,WI

[ProgressiveModerate]

Nevada and NC go to Trump, Biden wins everything else.

[kwabbit]

I think the election is roughly a tossup. Trump decently favored in the Sunbelt, Biden is slightly favored in each of MI, WI, and PA, but the chance Trump gets one and wins the EC is about 50-50.

[Xing]

AZ: Tilt Biden
GA: Tilt Trump
MI: Tilt Trump
NC: Lean Trump
NV: Tilt Trump
PA: Pure Toss-Up
WI: Tilt Trump

[TodayJunior]

My stubborn and unpopular yet consistent opinion: Biden sweeps all 7.
Dow Dobbs Democracy. and an honorable mention to Dukakis who was way ahead at this time in the 1988 cycle. Still a lot of time for a surprise to sink Trump. And it will.

[Tekken_Guy]

AZ: Tilt Biden
GA: Tilt Trump
MI: Tilt Trump
NC: Lean Trump
NV: Tilt Trump
PA: Pure Toss-Up
WI: Tilt Trump

I don’t see Trump winning MI but losing AZ.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

My stubborn and unpopular yet consistent opinion: Biden sweeps all 7.
Dow Dobbs Democracy. and an honorable mention to Dukakis who was way ahead at this time in the 1988 cycle. Still a lot of time for a surprise to sink Trump. And it will.

Biden won’t win NC or GA imo

[LAKISYLVANIA]

AZ: Lean Trump
GA: Lean Trump
MI: Toss-up/tilt Trump
NC: Lean Trump
NV: Lean Trump
PA: Toss-up/tilt Trump
WI: Toss-up/tilt Trump

And GA is closer to likely Trump than toss-up...

Ofc the race might still change but things are not looking good right now, only MI i think the LV vote screen shows that it's a pure toss-up and that Biden still is in the race here.

The trend seems to be that the Sun Belt states - including Nevada - are moving away from Biden's column with a Biden victory requiring a polling error or a change in the race / dynamics, while the Rust Belt is still highly competitive.

I also believe the high amount of split voting is overestimated, it's just that all of these states have Democratic incumbents, those might run better, those might overperform Biden, but by overperforming Biden by like 10, i doubt that. Like, i still believe some incumbents are in danger.

It's just no-one is familiar with what Republicans are running in the senate, really, at this point or not invested in those races meaning it seems the Democrats are running ahead by a lot.

I think Baldwin and Casey Jr. probably are fine, unless a modest victory in any of those states, Slotkin should be fine too unless Trump wins MI by more than 2.

In Arizona and Nevada I believe Rosen and Gallego are in trouble, but it'll depend on the margin itself, who the Republicans run in Nevada and by how much Trump wins. Lake is probably more toxic than Trump and i'm not sure if Republicans have a good candidate on the bench in Nevada. The house seats in Nevada might be in danger too due to the agressive D gerrymandering that might backfire if Trump wins NV by quite a bit.

[TechbroMBA]

I think Biden would eke out PA/WI, with Trump winning MI.

Despite polling I think PA will ultimately be the last of the rust belt trio to flip.

For the good of the country, I hope this doesn't get decided by NE-2 and goes to the House.

[iceman]

My stubborn and unpopular yet consistent opinion: Biden sweeps all 7.
Dow Dobbs Democracy. and an honorable mention to Dukakis who was way ahead at this time in the 1988 cycle. Still a lot of time for a surprise to sink Trump. And it will.

no way Biden wins a Trump 2020 state at his approvals. NC is definitely out of the question.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think Biden would eke out PA/WI, with Trump winning MI.

Despite polling I think PA will ultimately be the last of the rust belt trio to flip.

For the good of the country, I hope this doesn't get decided by NE-2 and goes to the House.

No way MI flips before WI. PA maybe though I’d still not count on it.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Biden wins AZ/MI/PA/WI
Trump wins GA/NV/NC

Arizona is the clincher

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Biden wins AZ/MI/PA/WI
Trump wins GA/NV/NC

Arizona is the clincher

This, with NE-02 going to Biden.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously, Biden it's a 319 map we are gonna get some version of 270 to 319

[GAinDC]

My stubborn and unpopular yet consistent opinion: Biden sweeps all 7.
Dow Dobbs Democracy. and an honorable mention to Dukakis who was way ahead at this time in the 1988 cycle. Still a lot of time for a surprise to sink Trump. And it will.

Biden won’t win NC or GA imo

Georgia is still competitive. Biden and Trump are still campaigning there, so their internal data probably shows that it's close.

Trump faces structural challenges in GA: it will be hard to make a lot of gains since the GOP areas are pretty maxed out, whereas blue trending areas have room to grow.

If you believe Trump is poised to make major gains with voters of color, then that's a different story, and maybe GA will swing hard to the right. But that hasn't played out in primaries or general elections in the past few years.

In GA, the closest proxy to the current race was Warnock vs Walker in 2022, and we all know how that went. If GA had fallen off the map, we would have seen Warnock lose.

[Yelnoc]

Trump wins all but Pennsylvania.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

My stubborn and unpopular yet consistent opinion: Biden sweeps all 7.
Dow Dobbs Democracy. and an honorable mention to Dukakis who was way ahead at this time in the 1988 cycle. Still a lot of time for a surprise to sink Trump. And it will.

Biden won’t win NC or GA imo

Georgia is still competitive. Biden and Trump are still campaigning there, so their internal data probably shows that it's close.

Trump faces structural challenges in GA: it will be hard to make a lot of gains since the GOP areas are pretty maxed out, whereas blue trending areas have room to grow.

If you believe Trump is poised to make major gains with voters of color, then that's a different story, and maybe GA will swing hard to the right. But that hasn't played out in primaries or general elections in the past few years.

In GA, the closest proxy to the current race was Warnock vs Walker in 2022, and we all know how that went. If GA had fallen off the map, we would have seen Warnock lose.

I don’t think it will swing “hard to the right” but as of now I think trump gets it by like 1%

[Mr. Smith]

PA/MI to Biden, the rest to Trump.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

This is my map right now.  It's a 270-268 Biden win, but I think Trump is a slight favorite, as I'm more uncertain about PA/WI/MI than GA/AZ/NV.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

This is my map right now.  It's a 270-268 Biden win, but I think Trump is a slight favorite, as I'm more uncertain about PA/WI/MI than GA/AZ/NV.

That would make for one hellish election night

[here2view]

Biden cobbles together the bare path to 270 by holding Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and NE-02.