VA: Biden +1, Kaine +12 (Impact Research (D) & Fabrizio (R))

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

https://stopneighborhoodslots.com/new-poll-shows-strong-opposition-to-legalizing-skill-games/

[iceman]

didn’t this firm just polled VA a week ago which showed Biden +4?

[wbrocks67]

didn’t this firm just polled VA a week ago which shower Biden +4?

That was McLaughlin for Trump (though I'm not sure why they polled for Trump since Fabrizio is his official in-house pollster now)

Though that makes the point that if McLaughlin even finds VA to be Biden +4, then this is a big x for doubt.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

didn’t this firm just polled VA a week ago which shower Biden +4?

That was McLaughlin for Trump (though I'm not sure why they polled for Trump since Fabrizio is his official in-house pollster now)

Though that makes the point that if McLaughlin even finds VA to be Biden +4, then this is a big x for doubt.

This is a bipartisan poll, with both a Democratic and Republican firm.

[TheTide]

A lot of polls recently showing incumbent Senators of each party significantly outperforming their party's presidential nominee.

[Dan the Roman]

So I flagged this on another thread but I feel the Did you approve of Trump as President? numbers are important.

Biden Approval

41-56

Trump as President

47-49

2020 Recall
47-38 Biden

[heatcharger]

Interesting.

[Vern]

So, VA looks more like 2016 numbers.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

The onslaught of horrendous state polling for Biden continues.

[Eraserhead]

Is Biden about to get routed by Trump of all people?

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

So Biden is in the same position in NV as the GOP is to their 59th Senate seat...

[Redban]

Biden 43
Trump 42
Other 2
Unsure 14

I'd rather see a poll that includes RFK Jr outright

But still good to see regardless

they have Kaine +12, which is similar to the margin that Warner took his race in 2020. So I don't think you can argue non-response bias or bad sampling  ... how can the poll undersample Dems in the Biden/Trump match but not in the Kaine/Cao match.

[2016]

didn’t this firm just polled VA a week ago which showed Biden +4?

No, they polled PA a week ago which had Trump + 4.

[Agafin]

Ticket splitting about to have a roaring comeback in 2024.

[GoTfan]

Is Biden about to get routed by Trump of all people?

Yeah, basically.

[President Johnson]

I would assume most of the Kaine voters will come home in the end and this poll will look ridiculous in November.

[iceman]

I would assume most of the Kaine voters will come home in the end and this poll will look ridiculous in November.

ok whatever suits you.

[Comrade Funk]

Enough is enough. Biden and the cowardly Democratic leadership are putting their own egos above the country and even their party. This trainwreck has been obvious since at least last September.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Calm down everyone. There is absolutely no chance that Biden underperforms Kaine that much.

I still refuse to believe there are this many Trump-downballot Democrat voters. There's still cold feet about Biden, unfortunately, it seems.

[AltWorlder]

A lot of polls recently showing incumbent Senators of each party significantly outperforming their party's presidential nominee.

If only we had the Westminster system

[Skill and Chance]

So, VA looks more like 2016 numbers.

Not really.  2016 was Dem by 5.4, a wider margin than 2012, which was Dem +3.9.  VA has not had a really close presidential result in this era.  It basically went straight from Lean R to Lean D.  The question is whether this is something to do with Southerners or if it’s just a nearly uniform swing with Trump winning the PV by 3-5.