What is the best reason to doubt current polling?

[SnowLabrador]

As I said the other day, Biden looks on track to be the Biggest Loser in presidential general elections in decades, which isn’t a category of Biggest Loser that you want to win. Of course, it’s entirely possible that it only LOOKS that way. In your view, what is the best argument that this may only be an illusion?

In my view, it’s special elections. It seems that Democrats are doing pretty well in them. If Biden is so toxic that he’s dragging down other Democrats, why are state-level Dems doing fine?

[GAinDC]

Surprised you even acknowledge a mere possibility that Biden isn’t completely doomed.

I think the poling is accurate right now but may not pan out. Many voters don’t like Biden but still don’t see Trump as an acceptable alternative. A good campaign can get a lot of those voters to the polls.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Inconsistency

[MadmanMotley]

The fact that Dem senate candidates in the same states are polling way better. Odds are that in most environments, there's not going to be more than a couple points of cross-party voting.

[Umengus]

As I said the other day, Biden looks on track to be the Biggest Loser in presidential general elections in decades, which isn’t a category of Biggest Loser that you want to win. Of course, it’s entirely possible that it only LOOKS that way. In your view, what is the best argument that this may only be an illusion?

In my view, it’s special elections. It seems that Democrats are doing pretty well in them. If Biden is so toxic that he’s dragging down other Democrats, why are state-level Dems doing fine?

turnout will be quite different, at the advantage of Trump. And last november election in VA was not bad for GOP.

[Sir Mohamed]

People not picking up the phone when pollsters call, while onlike polling was always questionable. A lot of crosstabs are weird as well.

Still, I'm not sure the polling can be off that much. Biden may not be trailing by the margins current battleground state polls suggest, but the overall picture right now is that he's headed for defeat.

[SnowLabrador]

Regarding people not picking up the phone when pollsters call, why wasn’t that an issue in 2016 or 2020, but is now?

[emailking]

I'm scared of Trump winning, lol.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Polling keeps suggesting things that haven’t showed up in election results.

In 2020, polling suggested Hispanics swinging right and in 2018 we saw some signs of that with places like Miami and RGV swinging right.

However in 2024, polling suggests many Republican favorable swings - Black and Hispanic voters swinging hard right, young voters becoming a competitive demographic. None of these have even remotely shown up in any actual election results in 2022 or 2023. It would be really strange for black voters to suddenly go to like 75-20 after voting ~90% for Dems in 2022

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Polling keeps suggesting things that haven’t showed up in election results.

In 2020, polling suggested Hispanics swinging right and in 2018 we saw some signs of that with places like Miami and RGV swinging right.

However in 2024, polling suggests many Republican favorable swings - Black and Hispanic voters swinging hard right, young voters becoming a competitive demographic. None of these have even remotely shown up in any actual election results in 2022 or 2023. It would be really strange for black voters to suddenly go to like 75-20 after voting ~90% for Dems in 2022

The polls show downballot Democrats getting normal support with the groups Biden is struggling with.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Polling keeps suggesting things that haven’t showed up in election results.

In 2020, polling suggested Hispanics swinging right and in 2018 we saw some signs of that with places like Miami and RGV swinging right.

However in 2024, polling suggests many Republican favorable swings - Black and Hispanic voters swinging hard right, young voters becoming a competitive demographic. None of these have even remotely shown up in any actual election results in 2022 or 2023. It would be really strange for black voters to suddenly go to like 75-20 after voting ~90% for Dems in 2022

The polls show downballot Democrats getting normal support with the groups Biden is struggling with.

Most downballot polls just seem to show the downballot candidates have less name recognition than Biden/Trump. Oftentimes the Dem is getting a simillar % to Biden just the Republican does worse than Trump.

[°Leprechaun]

The polls don't look good for Biden right now, but things can still change.

Focusing only abortion would be a mistake, although the issue appears to be helping Biden. Gun control and Covid are among a number of issues that Biden should be talking about.

If Trump is convicted of a crime, that could help Biden.

Does anybody think Trump's choice for VP will have an impact on the election?

To answer the title question, the current polling indicates a close race. The biggest thing is that the election is still over five months away. Other things to keep in mind: undecideds, the fact that those saying they plan to vote third party could easily change their minds, turnout, and certainly margin of error.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One other thing I would add in addition to my original post is that polling increasingly has terrible response rates, especially amongst the youngest voters. There are so many potential ways the 1% of people who actually answer these things could be unrepresentative of the vernal public in a way that hard to account for.

This has always been the case to some extent but has become more true with the rise of scams and spams with modern technology - especially young people who basically don’t touch anything that comes from any unknown source. It’s easy to see how a bias could be created there.

[Kamala's side hoe]

One other thing I would add in addition to my original post is that polling increasingly has terrible response rates, especially amongst the youngest voters. There are so many potential ways the 1% of people who actually answer these things could be unrepresentative of the vernal public in a way that hard to account for.

This has always been the case to some extent but has become more true with the rise of scams and spams with modern technology - especially young people who basically don’t touch anything that comes from any unknown source. It’s easy to see how a bias could be created there.

I was never particularly supportive of or optimistic about Biden, but I can't emphasize the bolded points enough. I have oceanfront property in Wyoming to sell to everyone who believes there's any chance Trump will win NV by >=10%- or that Philadelphia will only be Biden+24.
https://twitter.com/thiosulfate24/status/1790018504344617039

[GAinDC]

What if public opinion around Biden and the economy actually isn't nearly as bad as the polling is showing and the media is just creating an entirely false narrative based on faulty data?

Not saying I believe this, but it's a possiblity

[TechbroMBA]

The best reason to doubt polling is you want Biden to win, but he isn't leading.

[Progressive Pessimist]

We're too polarized, and Trump is still too unpopular and divisive for his polling leads to be what we will see in November.

He's certainly not being overestimated this year.

What if public opinion around Biden and the economy actually isn't nearly as bad as the polling is showing and the media is just creating an entirely false narrative based on faulty data?

Not saying I believe this, but it's a possiblity

I've said it before: Biden isn't popular, but likely just not inspiring enthusiasm. I think that was the case in 2022 where Biden was almost a non-factor.