Biden 2020 state that is the most certain to flip?
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Author Topic: Biden 2020 state that is the most certain to flip?  (Read 359 times)
iceman
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« on: May 13, 2024, 06:39:02 AM »
At this point, which Biden 2020 state is the most certain to flip?
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Bismarck
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« Reply #1 on: May 13, 2024, 06:45:24 AM »
Polling seems to suggest Georgia but who knows how accurate that will turn out to be. The three Great Lakes states and Arizona seem like pure tossups.
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VALibertarian
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« Reply #2 on: May 13, 2024, 09:19:27 AM »
Gut feeling? Wisconsin.

If I had to be certain and put money on it? Definitely Georgia.
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Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins
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« Reply #3 on: May 13, 2024, 09:24:07 AM »
Georgia. The real question is what is the 2nd.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #4 on: May 13, 2024, 09:31:00 AM »
I always thought WI, but instead looks like it's hard to argue anything else other than GA.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: May 13, 2024, 09:44:35 AM »
GA obviously, I don't think NV is Trump 12
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iceman
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« Reply #6 on: May 13, 2024, 11:13:07 AM »
« Edited: May 13, 2024, 11:28:29 AM by iceman »
based in the polls and trends alone I would have to go with Nevada. Trump may have the lead in Georgia right now but polling in recent cycles tend to underestimate DEM support in the peach state.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #7 on: May 13, 2024, 11:20:21 AM »
I'd put them in order (most to least) as GA-NV-AZ-MI-WI-PA.
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xavier110
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« Reply #8 on: May 13, 2024, 12:45:19 PM »
« Edited: May 13, 2024, 12:50:05 PM by xavier110 »
Nevada. ATL has more college educated whites, and Black voters are more likely to fall in line with Dems than Hispanics. NV’s high school educated tourist economy is also not a good fit for Biden. It also has more of a none of the above/third party culture than GA. And Reno/LV are not the burgeoning D wall that Phoenix/Tucson are quickly becoming.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #9 on: May 13, 2024, 12:59:07 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on May 13, 2024, 11:20:21 AM
I'd put them in order (most to least) as GA-NV-AZ-MI-WI-PA.

Wisconsin will flip before Michigan.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #10 on: May 13, 2024, 01:11:10 PM »
I'm thinking Wisconsin, the demographics there just seem very ripe with Trump, and its trending R. Georgia is trending D even if Trump may win it this year.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #11 on: May 13, 2024, 01:21:15 PM »
Georgia.

The Nevada polling is highly suspect.
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Xing
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« Reply #12 on: May 13, 2024, 01:22:00 PM »
None are "certain", but polling makes it look like it'll be Georgia, even if I still suspect it might be Wisconsin.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #13 on: May 13, 2024, 01:24:05 PM »
Georgia is the most likely to flip, then NV, AZ, WI, and finally MI/PA.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #14 on: May 13, 2024, 04:27:43 PM »
Obviously Georgia.
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GAinDC
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« Reply #15 on: May 13, 2024, 04:42:02 PM »
People need to understand that Metro ATL is not snapping back toward Trump. It's not the same place it was even back in 2016.
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Steve from Lambeth
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« Reply #16 on: May 13, 2024, 05:09:20 PM »
Quote from: Steve from Lambeth on May 09, 2024, 08:40:28 PM
...My current ranking of most-to-least likely Trump flips thus runs NV-AZ-GA-WI-NE2-MI-PA.
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