NYT/Siena: PA--Trump +3, WI-Biden +2, MI-Trump +7, GA-Trump +10, NV-Trump +12, AZ-Trump +7

[Tekken_Guy]

How many of the people answering the “who wins” posts every month are moved into the Trump camp? Surreal to say but this feels over ALREADY. Which even I wouldn’t have said before.

Much like the UK - the result feels baked in. What could Biden do to change it? I’m not sure anything. If everything about Trump isn’t enough to move people… they’re beyond help. The world is wondering “WTF how the F are Americans so deluded?”

I don’t think it is over because Trump’s position is pretty tenuous in the rust belt even if it’s stronger in the sun belt.

Yeah, even the article states this:

Historically, polls at this early stage have not been necessarily indicative of the outcome, and Mr. Trump’s breakthrough among traditionally Democratic young, Black and Hispanic voters may not rest on a solid foundation. His strength is concentrated among irregular, disengaged voters who do not pay close attention to politics and may not yet be tuned into the race. They may be prone to shift their views as the race gets underway.

This is getting a little delusional at this point. May nots and maybes are typically used by the losing side. Biden is going to lose.

He could lose but it’s not a done deal he will lose.

[Eraserhead]

Biden should really hope that Trump is somehow dumb enough to pick that ho who shot her dog.

[GoTfan]

How many of the people answering the “who wins” posts every month are moved into the Trump camp? Surreal to say but this feels over ALREADY. Which even I wouldn’t have said before.

Much like the UK - the result feels baked in. What could Biden do to change it? I’m not sure anything. If everything about Trump isn’t enough to move people… they’re beyond help. The world is wondering “WTF how the F are Americans so deluded?”

I don’t think it is over because Trump’s position is pretty tenuous in the rust belt even if it’s stronger in the sun belt.

Yeah, even the article states this:

Historically, polls at this early stage have not been necessarily indicative of the outcome, and Mr. Trump’s breakthrough among traditionally Democratic young, Black and Hispanic voters may not rest on a solid foundation. His strength is concentrated among irregular, disengaged voters who do not pay close attention to politics and may not yet be tuned into the race. They may be prone to shift their views as the race gets underway.

This is getting a little delusional at this point. May nots and maybes are typically used by the losing side. Biden is going to lose.

He could lose but it’s not a done deal he will lose.

It pretty much is. I'm not sure anyone in that 'brain trust' knows what they're doing anymore.

[wbrocks67]

Maybe I'm just overly optimistic but it's weird to me that people are dooming so bad when WI/PA/MI are - once again - literal tossups here and that is Biden's easiest path to victory?

[GoTfan]

Maybe I'm just overly optimistic but it's weird to me that people are dooming so bad when WI/PA/MI are - once again - literal tossups here and that is Biden's easiest path to victory?

Because disengaged voters will vote against the incumbent.

[wbrocks67]

How many of the people answering the “who wins” posts every month are moved into the Trump camp? Surreal to say but this feels over ALREADY. Which even I wouldn’t have said before.

Much like the UK - the result feels baked in. What could Biden do to change it? I’m not sure anything. If everything about Trump isn’t enough to move people… they’re beyond help. The world is wondering “WTF how the F are Americans so deluded?”

I don’t think it is over because Trump’s position is pretty tenuous in the rust belt even if it’s stronger in the sun belt.

Yeah, even the article states this:

Historically, polls at this early stage have not been necessarily indicative of the outcome, and Mr. Trump’s breakthrough among traditionally Democratic young, Black and Hispanic voters may not rest on a solid foundation. His strength is concentrated among irregular, disengaged voters who do not pay close attention to politics and may not yet be tuned into the race. They may be prone to shift their views as the race gets underway.

This is getting a little delusional at this point. May nots and maybes are typically used by the losing side. Biden is going to lose.

I mean, it's not the losing side that's saying it - it's literally the NYT writers who wrote up the poll

But if you honestly believe Trump will have the best performance among young and nonwhite voters in decades, be my guest. IMO that's much more delusional since the only proof we have of that is some polling crosstabs (all of the oversamples we have seen do not point to this either)

[wbrocks67]

Maybe I'm just overly optimistic but it's weird to me that people are dooming so bad when WI/PA/MI are - once again - literal tossups here and that is Biden's easiest path to victory?

Because disengaged voters will vote against the incumbent.

If they're that disengaged, they're unlikely to vote in the first place

[President Johnson]

Biden should really hope that Trump is somehow dumb enough to pick that ho who shot her dog.

Nobody will care by November. There are several things that can cause Trump to lose, but that ain't one of them.

[Tekken_Guy]

Maybe I'm just overly optimistic but it's weird to me that people are dooming so bad when WI/PA/MI are - once again - literal tossups here and that is Biden's easiest path to victory?

It might be the Michigan RV topline which is bad for Biden and a vast outlier from even the other MI polls in the ballot test.

[GAinDC]

Maybe I'm just overly optimistic but it's weird to me that people are dooming so bad when WI/PA/MI are - once again - literal tossups here and that is Biden's easiest path to victory?

I'm still very optimistic about the rust belt, but as a native Georgian, I'm very disheartened by the sunbelt polls.

Georgia has been trending blue for years, so I don't get why Trump is leading by even more than he won the state by in 2016 -- or even Mitt Romney's 2012 margin if you buy this poll. I also have no idea where Trump would make up that ground (and I know Georgia's political geography very well) so it's also confounding.

[kwabbit]

This crosstabs gang are gonna be busy this summer

Well, if Trump was leading with more realistic crosstabs, I'd take it or at least would be more critical of Democrats not being more effective.

These polls look bad, and I wouldn't just discredit them because it looks that way, on the other hand, there's nothing wrong to closely examine them. As of now, it's undeniable Biden has a lot of work to do in the remaining months.

The crosstabs among Black, Hispanic, and young voters are suspicious, but Trump's gains are always going to come from those groups. He was never going to gain among educated White voters and only slightly among non-college educated Whites. So either you believe the overall picture in polling showing severe erosion for Biden among those groups, or you don't and will conclude that Biden will win.

[wbrocks67]

Maybe I'm just overly optimistic but it's weird to me that people are dooming so bad when WI/PA/MI are - once again - literal tossups here and that is Biden's easiest path to victory?

I'm still very optimistic about the rust belt, but as a native Georgian, I'm very disheartened by the sunbelt polls.

Georgia has been trending blue for years, so I don't get why Trump is leading by even more than he won the state by in 2016 -- or even Mitt Romney's 2012 margin if you buy this poll. I also have no idea where Trump would make up that ground (and I know Georgia's political geography very well) so it's also confounding.

I mean, it's basically all compounded within the nonwhite sample. From what I've seen, most GA polls have Biden at or close to the 30% of white voters he needs to win the state. We've gotten a lot of recent GA polls having Trump only up 1-3, so call me crazy for saying that this is a clear outlier, and any poll that has him up nearly 10 in a swing state is.

Donald Trump's own internal had him up only 4 in Arizona, but we're going to believe he's up 6-9? At some people we need to stop being so overreactive here, but also the big doomers love to swarm these threads and get on their high horse (but are conspicuously absent in threads with good polls for Biden)

[GoTfan]

Maybe I'm just overly optimistic but it's weird to me that people are dooming so bad when WI/PA/MI are - once again - literal tossups here and that is Biden's easiest path to victory?

I'm still very optimistic about the rust belt, but as a native Georgian, I'm very disheartened by the sunbelt polls.

Georgia has been trending blue for years, so I don't get why Trump is leading by even more than he won the state by in 2016 -- or even Mitt Romney's 2012 margin if you buy this poll. I also have no idea where Trump would make up that ground (and I know Georgia's political geography very well) so it's also confounding.

I mean, it's basically all compounded within the nonwhite sample. From what I've seen, most GA polls have Biden at or close to the 30% of white voters he needs to win the state. We've gotten a lot of recent GA polls having Trump only up 1-3, so call me crazy for saying that this is a clear outlier, and any poll that has him up nearly 10 in a swing state is.

Donald Trump's own internal had him up only 4 in Arizona, but we're going to believe he's up 6-9? At some people we need to stop being so overreactive here, but also the big doomers love to swarm these threads and get on their high horse (but are conspicuously absent in threads with good polls for Biden)

Polls consistently underestimate Trump's performances. Coupled with fuel prices staying fairly high and inflation being sticky, and Trump is in an enviable position. I always assume the worst-case scenario as a matter of course.

[President Johnson]

Maybe I'm just overly optimistic but it's weird to me that people are dooming so bad when WI/PA/MI are - once again - literal tossups here and that is Biden's easiest path to victory?

I'm still very optimistic about the rust belt, but as a native Georgian, I'm very disheartened by the sunbelt polls.

Georgia has been trending blue for years, so I don't get why Trump is leading by even more than he won the state by in 2016 -- or even Mitt Romney's 2012 margin if you buy this poll. I also have no idea where Trump would make up that ground (and I know Georgia's political geography very well) so it's also confounding.

I mean, it's basically all compounded within the nonwhite sample. From what I've seen, most GA polls have Biden at or close to the 30% of white voters he needs to win the state. We've gotten a lot of recent GA polls having Trump only up 1-3, so call me crazy for saying that this is a clear outlier, and any poll that has him up nearly 10 in a swing state is.

Donald Trump's own internal had him up only 4 in Arizona, but we're going to believe he's up 6-9? At some people we need to stop being so overreactive here, but also the big doomers love to swarm these threads and get on their high horse (but are conspicuously absent in threads with good polls for Biden)

Polls consistently underestimate Trump's performances. Coupled with fuel prices staying fairly high and inflation being sticky, and Trump is in an enviable position. I always assume the worst-case scenario as a matter of course.

Well, but if these polls were off as the 2020 polling was to Trump's advantage, he'd be winning the election by more than any other since Reagan's reelection.

[GAinDC]

Maybe I'm just overly optimistic but it's weird to me that people are dooming so bad when WI/PA/MI are - once again - literal tossups here and that is Biden's easiest path to victory?

I'm still very optimistic about the rust belt, but as a native Georgian, I'm very disheartened by the sunbelt polls.

Georgia has been trending blue for years, so I don't get why Trump is leading by even more than he won the state by in 2016 -- or even Mitt Romney's 2012 margin if you buy this poll. I also have no idea where Trump would make up that ground (and I know Georgia's political geography very well) so it's also confounding.

I mean, it's basically all compounded within the nonwhite sample. From what I've seen, most GA polls have Biden at or close to the 30% of white voters he needs to win the state. We've gotten a lot of recent GA polls having Trump only up 1-3, so call me crazy for saying that this is a clear outlier, and any poll that has him up nearly 10 in a swing state is.

Donald Trump's own internal had him up only 4 in Arizona, but we're going to believe he's up 6-9? At some people we need to stop being so overreactive here, but also the big doomers love to swarm these threads and get on their high horse (but are conspicuously absent in threads with good polls for Biden)

Good points. Biden is holding up very well with white voters in Georgia, which was actually how Dems were able to crack the state.

Assuming no collapse in Black support or turnout, Georgia should be much closer than this poll suggests.

[GAinDC]

Wasn't GoTFan basically trying to convince everyone on election night 2020 that Trump would win Wisconsin and it was a lost cause for Biden? Like, while the votes were still being counted?

[GoTfan]

Maybe I'm just overly optimistic but it's weird to me that people are dooming so bad when WI/PA/MI are - once again - literal tossups here and that is Biden's easiest path to victory?

I'm still very optimistic about the rust belt, but as a native Georgian, I'm very disheartened by the sunbelt polls.

Georgia has been trending blue for years, so I don't get why Trump is leading by even more than he won the state by in 2016 -- or even Mitt Romney's 2012 margin if you buy this poll. I also have no idea where Trump would make up that ground (and I know Georgia's political geography very well) so it's also confounding.

I mean, it's basically all compounded within the nonwhite sample. From what I've seen, most GA polls have Biden at or close to the 30% of white voters he needs to win the state. We've gotten a lot of recent GA polls having Trump only up 1-3, so call me crazy for saying that this is a clear outlier, and any poll that has him up nearly 10 in a swing state is.

Donald Trump's own internal had him up only 4 in Arizona, but we're going to believe he's up 6-9? At some people we need to stop being so overreactive here, but also the big doomers love to swarm these threads and get on their high horse (but are conspicuously absent in threads with good polls for Biden)

Polls consistently underestimate Trump's performances. Coupled with fuel prices staying fairly high and inflation being sticky, and Trump is in an enviable position. I always assume the worst-case scenario as a matter of course.

Well, but if these polls were off as the 2020 polling was to Trump's advantage, he'd be winning the election by more than any other since Reagan's reelection.

They don't have to be off by 2020 margins.

[Tekken_Guy]

This crosstabs gang are gonna be busy this summer

Well, if Trump was leading with more realistic crosstabs, I'd take it or at least would be more critical of Democrats not being more effective.

These polls look bad, and I wouldn't just discredit them because it looks that way, on the other hand, there's nothing wrong to closely examine them. As of now, it's undeniable Biden has a lot of work to do in the remaining months.

The crosstabs among Black, Hispanic, and young voters are suspicious, but Trump's gains are always going to come from those groups. He was never going to gain among educated White voters and only slightly among non-college educated Whites. So either you believe the overall picture in polling showing severe erosion for Biden among those groups, or you don't and will conclude that Biden will win.

Maybe it’s a mix of both, where his losses with minorities will cause him issues in the sun belt yet he’ll be bailed out by the rust belt.

[GoTfan]

Wasn't GoTFan basically trying to convince everyone on election night 2020 that Trump would win Wisconsin and it was a lost cause for Biden? Like, while the votes were still being counted?

As I explained above (that you just decided to ignore) I generally assume the worst case scenario for everything.

[Eraserhead]

Biden should really hope that Trump is somehow dumb enough to pick that ho who shot her dog.

Nobody will care by November. There are several things that can cause Trump to lose, but that ain't one of them.

Disagree. There are A LOT of people who would care about that, including some people who would otherwise be inclined to vote for Trump.

That said, I can't imagine she gets picked.

[wbrocks67]

Also - the Dem candidates are only slightly outperforming Biden in reality on average:

Black voters - Biden gets 70%, senate candidates get 71%
Hispanic voters - Biden gets 47%, senate candidates get 48%
White voters - Biden gets 40%, senate candidates get 44%

So at least with nonwhite voters, it's less of the Dem senate candidate outperforming Biden, the GOP candidates are mostly just underperforming Trump (b/c also they're less name rec too)

Which once again points me to believing this is less a Biden problem and more just a polling thing in general.

[AltWorlder]

Much like the UK - the result feels baked in. What could Biden do to change it? I’m not sure anything. If everything about Trump isn’t enough to move people… they’re beyond help. The world is wondering “WTF how the F are Americans so deluded?”

Trump could die. Trump could go to jail. Biden could die. Israel could set off a nuke. Russia could set off a nuke. The economy could tank. Anything could happen by November. In a world that is increasingly chaotic and turbulent, I truly think nothing is set in stone.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The NV poll is clearly an Outlier

[henster]

It's looking like the situation the Tories & Liberal Party in the UK & Canada are facing is starting to look like Biden's fate. We know there is no going back for the Tories right now pretty much the same for Trudeau. I think we need to start thinking there is no coming back for Biden with the electorate.

[GAinDC]

It's looking like the situation the Tories & Liberal Party in the UK & Canada are facing is starting to look like Biden's fate. We know there is no going back for the Tories right now pretty much the same for Trudeau. I think we need to start thinking there is no coming back for Biden with the electorate.

It's different here because our Presidential elections are more personality driven than parliamentary elections