NYT/Siena: PA--Trump +3, WI-Biden +2, MI-Trump +7, GA-Trump +10, NV-Trump +12, AZ-Trump +7

[heatcharger]

Looks like New Mexico is in play. Fascinating election.

[Agafin]

Another big problem for Biden is that the usual convention bump might end being a convention bust this year due to the Gaza protests.

All in all, Biden's poll numbers are unlikely to substantially improve before september (post labor day) at the earliest imo, as that's when the least politically aware voters finally tune in.

[AltWorlder]

Overall a horrible picture. Yup, the grosstabs are questionable, but either polling is just totally broken or it doesn't look for Biden at all.

All things considered, I'm slowly moving towards the belief that Biden is headed for defeat. Maybe not by these margins here. There's still enough time to turn things around, but for how long have been saying this?

This is a weird thing to say given that the race is an absolute tossup in the 3 states that will really decide the election (WI/PA/MI) - if Biden wins those 3, which even judging by this poll, he most definitely can, then he wins ....

If he can hold the rest for sure, while losing NV would bring down to 270.

The reason I'm starting to believe this that we haven't seen much change in the numbers albeit from Biden's brief and medicore bump after his SOTU. That leads me to the conclusion the American public just doesn't want him to be prez anymore. Additionally, it seems like lots of Millennial and Gen Z voters feel a huge sense of anexity and are willing to throw the election to Trump by sitting November out. Sadly, many Americans see Biden as a doddering old fool no longer up to the task. Is that image unfair? Absolutely. But it's hard to change public perceptions, especially as we get closer and closer to the election.

Sure, it's not too late... but for how long have we been saying this? Initially I expected things to shift into the election year or spring, similar to Clinton and Obama. We haven't seen this yet, and Biden is arguably in a much worse position. Obama was just slightly underwater in 2012 at that time, Biden's approval has been in double digit negative pretty much since the summer of 2021. In fact, he may be happy to run against a horrible candidate like Trump. Otherwise, this race might be Likely/Safe R instead of Tilt or Lean.

Biden's also polling down in NE-02, though, which would close this path.

There is no more fitting way for democracy to end than on a 269-269 tie due to an archaic points system in which one of the 50 member states uses a different allocation methodology to flip one point to the lagging candidate - and the majority of members who vote in the tiebreak system support the candidate that would have had a majority, but they are grouped into 50 separate lots, of which the majority of lots cast their votes for the lagging candidate.

American Democracy more or less ended in 2000 anyway, we've been treading water since then

[wbrocks67]

The PA suburb sample is somewhat bigger (~400) so I think it's also able to be scrutinized a bit more - but still only has Biden +13 (52-39) in H2H and +10 (41-31) in multi-way. Biden won the suburbs by 19% in 2020. Trump is certainly not improving between 6 and 9% in the suburbs compared to 2020.

Philly's # is atrocious (Biden 54-30) - the sample size is like ~90 so yeah, but even outside of that, to get 30% for Trump in Philly should be next to impossible.

[DrScholl]

If I had to guess they are weighting by party ID and that's not a good thing to do in polling if you want an accurate result. Apparently this is what CNN has been doing. I honestly think that some pollsters are  weighting and sampling to deliberately get pro-Trump results to either correct for errors in past cycles or to boost his prospects because he's good for business. The variance between the Senate races makes no sense and that's quite suspect to me.

[Comrade Funk]

This crosstabs gang are gonna be busy this summer

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This crosstabs gang are gonna be busy this summer

The polls don't make sense given the S numbers how is Tammy Baldwin 6 pts ahead of Biden and Rosen 14 better than Biden

[BlueSwan]

This is so over. Prepare for the worst.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is so over. Prepare for the worst.

Lol it's not over we still have to vote and Trump PA +3 and MI +7 are with 5/6 pts MOE do you know what MOE means

At the same time we can only hope that Harris isn't a hinderence like Pence was

[Tekken_Guy]

I imagine the vibes around this poll wouldn’t be nearly as terrible if not for the Michigan Trump+7.

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1790055858757337590?t=tyKLoUyGGdh5Mjtv...

The King has spoken, and lean R Nevada is real. Years late justice for IndyRep.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think the Michigan polling may be due to disillusioned Gaza voters selecting Trump in protest in the RV H2H, but going 3rd Party in the multi-candidate field and dropping out of the LV screen. I imagine most will stay home and the ones who do show up are more likely to go 3P than Trump.

Crosstabs also show Trump’s MI lead in the H2H is powered by 2020 nonvoters rather than defections from Biden 2020 voters.

[MillennialModerate]

How many of the people answering the “who wins” posts every month are moved into the Trump camp? Surreal to say but this feels over ALREADY. Which even I wouldn’t have said before.

Much like the UK - the result feels baked in. What could Biden do to change it? I’m not sure anything. If everything about Trump isn’t enough to move people… they’re beyond help. The world is wondering “WTF how the F are Americans so deluded?”

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

They need to poll New Mexico with these AZ/NV numbers. Could actually be decisive if Biden holds up in the Rust Belt and NE02

[MR DARK BRANDON]

They need to poll New Mexico with these AZ/NV numbers. Could actually be decisive if Biden holds up in the Rust Belt and NE02

If Biden wins the rust belt Trump isn’t winning NM.

[President Johnson]

This crosstabs gang are gonna be busy this summer

Well, if Trump was leading with more realistic crosstabs, I'd take it or at least would be more critical of Democrats not being more effective.

These polls look bad, and I wouldn't just discredit them because it looks that way, on the other hand, there's nothing wrong to closely examine them. As of now, it's undeniable Biden has a lot of work to do in the remaining months.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

They need to poll New Mexico with these AZ/NV numbers. Could actually be decisive if Biden holds up in the Rust Belt and NE02

If Biden wins the rust belt Trump isn’t winning NM.

Biden could collapse with Hispanics

[Tekken_Guy]

How many of the people answering the “who wins” posts every month are moved into the Trump camp? Surreal to say but this feels over ALREADY. Which even I wouldn’t have said before.

Much like the UK - the result feels baked in. What could Biden do to change it? I’m not sure anything. If everything about Trump isn’t enough to move people… they’re beyond help. The world is wondering “WTF how the F are Americans so deluded?”

I don’t think it is over because Trump’s position is pretty tenuous in the rust belt even if it’s stronger in the sun belt.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

This crosstabs gang are gonna be busy this summer

Well, if Trump was leading with more realistic crosstabs, I'd take it or at least would be more critical of Democrats not being more effective.

These polls look bad, and I wouldn't just discredit them because it looks that way, on the other hand, there's nothing wrong to closely examine them. As of now, it's undeniable Biden has a lot of work to do in the remaining months.

This is where I’ve always been at. And you can believe Biden has work to put in while also believing he  will win in the end. In fact if anything I’m GLAD the Biden campaign has been working like it has the last few months.

[Horus]

I don't think it's completely out of the question for Trump to win while Dems take the house and the Senate is 50/50. What a clusterf-ck that would be.

[wbrocks67]

How many of the people answering the “who wins” posts every month are moved into the Trump camp? Surreal to say but this feels over ALREADY. Which even I wouldn’t have said before.

Much like the UK - the result feels baked in. What could Biden do to change it? I’m not sure anything. If everything about Trump isn’t enough to move people… they’re beyond help. The world is wondering “WTF how the F are Americans so deluded?”

I don’t think it is over because Trump’s position is pretty tenuous in the rust belt even if it’s stronger in the sun belt.

Yeah, even the article states this:

Historically, polls at this early stage have not been necessarily indicative of the outcome, and Mr. Trump’s breakthrough among traditionally Democratic young, Black and Hispanic voters may not rest on a solid foundation. His strength is concentrated among irregular, disengaged voters who do not pay close attention to politics and may not yet be tuned into the race. They may be prone to shift their views as the race gets underway.

[Horus]

It's almost June. The race, anemic as it is, is already underway. Rescheduling weed clearly isn't going to help (what a half assed compromise that was.) If Biden wants to win he needs to start issuing broad, New Deal-esque executive orders and quickly.

[wbrocks67]

It's almost June. The race, anemic as it is, is already underway. Rescheduling weed clearly isn't going to help (what a half assed compromise that was). If Biden wants to win he needs to start issuing broad, New Deal-esque executive orders and quickly.

If you're talking about young voters, the jury is still out though on how they're voting.

Yes, small sample sizes (though over n=100 at least), but Wisconsin and Arizona in this very poll have Biden 2020 levels of young voter support. Georgia and Michigan meanwhile have Trump +20. The jury is very much still out on polling on these groups.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

This is so over. Prepare for the worst.

Lol it's not over we still have to vote and Trump PA +3 and MI +7 are with 5/6 pts MOE do you know what MOE means

At the same time we can only hope that Harris isn't a hinderence like Pence was

The first instance of "Donald Trump can still be stopped if Kamala Harris has the courage to do the right thing." Incredible art.

[GoTfan]

How many of the people answering the “who wins” posts every month are moved into the Trump camp? Surreal to say but this feels over ALREADY. Which even I wouldn’t have said before.

Much like the UK - the result feels baked in. What could Biden do to change it? I’m not sure anything. If everything about Trump isn’t enough to move people… they’re beyond help. The world is wondering “WTF how the F are Americans so deluded?”

I don’t think it is over because Trump’s position is pretty tenuous in the rust belt even if it’s stronger in the sun belt.

Yeah, even the article states this:

Historically, polls at this early stage have not been necessarily indicative of the outcome, and Mr. Trump’s breakthrough among traditionally Democratic young, Black and Hispanic voters may not rest on a solid foundation. His strength is concentrated among irregular, disengaged voters who do not pay close attention to politics and may not yet be tuned into the race. They may be prone to shift their views as the race gets underway.

This is getting a little delusional at this point. May nots and maybes are typically used by the losing side. Biden is going to lose.