NYT/Siena: PA--Trump +3, WI-Biden +2, MI-Trump +7, GA-Trump +10, NV-Trump +12, AZ-Trump +7

[Podgy the Bear]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/us/politics/biden-trump-battleground-poll.html

[Eraserhead]

Ugly as ugly gets.

If there's one glimmer of hope it's that the Nevada numbers are so absurd they may call into question the authenticity of the results in general.

[CookieDamage]

You'd expect Biden to be losing Wisconsin too with numbers like these

[Podgy the Bear]

These are RV.  Likely voter polling has Biden up by 1 in MI and Trump up by 1 in WI.  Not much difference between RV and LV in PA, GA, AZ, or NV.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

You'd expect Biden to be losing Wisconsin too with numbers like these

Still up in the air to whether pollsters have learned how to poll Wisconsin in presidential years.

Similar with NV frankly. (although this number is way outside their normal underestimation of dems).

[Podgy the Bear]

NYT/Siena Senate polling indicates that Democrats are leading in all of the above states with Senate elections.   Rosen is leading in NV and Gallego leading in AZ with Biden way down.  

Biden is simply not doing well with young voters and POC.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Wisconsin isn’t voting 9 points to the left of Michigan lol

[iceman]

one thing is for sure though. Trump’s lead in Georgia has been very consistent.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

NYT/Siena Senate polling indicates that Democrats are leading in all of the above states with Senate elections.   Rosen is leading in NV and Gallego leading in AZ with Biden way down.  

Biden is simply not doing well with young voters and POC.

Rosen is only hitting 40%, while Trump is over 50%.

If that number is correct, should be slightly concerning for her that a large chunk of undecideds are trump voters.

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1789979312348594608?t=n0_TfqXF6p2Oecfvz...

[Eraserhead]

I wish they polled Minnesota tbh.

[Eraserhead]

one thing is for sure though. Trump’s lead in Georgia has been very consistent.

Yeah I think Georgia is gone until further notice.

[iceman]

As we have seen in the fast few cycles, we should always take caution about polls in the rust belt states. They always overestiamte Dem support and underestimate Trump.

[Matty]

I just can’t see Rosen hanging on if Biden is truly losing by double digits in NV

[2016]

I just can’t see Rosen hanging on if Biden is truly losing by double digits in NV

Sam Brown is still largely unknown in Nevada. Further, Republicans have cut down the Democratic Voter Registration Edge in the Silver State (was 50,000+ ahead of the 2022 Midterms) and is now just under 35,000.

Siena/NYT dropping North Carolina from their Swing State Polls is HUGE News. I predict Biden won't win any of the Trump 2020 States. Ohio & Iowa are totally out of reach and Florida, Texas and now NC heading that way.

[Skill and Chance]

You'd expect Biden to be losing Wisconsin too with numbers like these

Not necessarily.  It's a very consistent trend that Biden's holding up fine with Northern secular white people but in freefall with Hispanic people and probably doing worse than 2020 with black and white people in the South to some degree. 

[Skill and Chance]

Wisconsin isn’t voting 9 points to the left of Michigan lol

I do agree with this.  Using LV #'s, however, Michigan is Biden +1 and Wisconsin is Trump +1, which is exactly what you would expect if they were staying in the same "relative" positions as in 2020.

[SnowLabrador]

These numbers are so bad for Biden they’re almost unbelievable. And yet, we’re witnessing a train wreck in slow motion.

[Unelectable Bystander]

These numbers are explainable if you ignore demographics and look at geography and sort states into inflation resistant and inflation impacted.

Inflation impacted is Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Texas, Florida, North Carolina, California, NYC, New Jersey, Tennessee. These states have endured unnatural growth in housing costs or high gas prices.

Inflation resistant is Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and a bunch of northern safe R states. These states have comparatively cheaper gas and stable growth patterns. Even the outliers, like Madison, have less of a housing problem with flat farmland in every direction.

[Vern]

These numbers are explainable if you ignore demographics and look at geography and sort states into inflation resistant and inflation impacted.

Inflation impacted is Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Texas, Florida, North Carolina, California, NYC, New Jersey, Tennessee. These states have endured unnatural growth in housing costs or high gas prices.

Inflation resistant is Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and a bunch of northern safe R states. These states have comparatively cheaper gas and stable growth patterns. Even the outliers, like Madison, have less of a housing problem with flat farmland in every direction.

This is interesting, could explain what is going on.

[Skill and Chance]

These numbers are explainable if you ignore demographics and look at geography and sort states into inflation resistant and inflation impacted.

Inflation impacted is Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Texas, Florida, North Carolina, California, NYC, New Jersey, Tennessee. These states have endured unnatural growth in housing costs or high gas prices.

Inflation resistant is Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and a bunch of northern safe R states. These states have comparatively cheaper gas and stable growth patterns. Even the outliers, like Madison, have less of a housing problem with flat farmland in every direction.

This is interesting, could explain what is going on.

TBH this seems reasonable.  The 2020's inflation has been primarily a story of shifting from segmented regional markets toward one national market for housing and many other products.  The South would feel uniquely squeezed in this scenario.  Whereas agricultural areas benefit somewhat from high inflation and if there's a net movement of people away from your state/city, that inherently holds prices down somewhat.

[GAinDC]

Ugh horrible numbers for Biden! NTY/Siena seems to be one of his worst pollsters, but even accounting for that, this is still very bad for Biden.

I still think that fundamentals and Biden running a good campaign can even up a lot of these states in the end, but it’s looking like a tall order.

Also important to remember that polls don’t win an election; voters do. In 2020, everyone thought Biden was inevitable and it ended up being more competitive than we realized. The same could happen this year but in the opposite direction.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I think it's possible that we've hit peak polarization and that split-ticket voting will grow from now-on but I still think there's something fundamentally broken about polling if you're getting a 14-point difference between an incumbent first-term senator and the president's polling numbers.

Numbers are definitely worrying though.

[GAinDC]

I think Dems should start drawing up our own Project 2025 as a blueprint to push back on Trump should he win.

[wbrocks67]

Wow, realistic numbers in PA/WI/Mi but outlandish numbers in AZ/GA/NV, never seen this before. Ever.

Nevada's #s seem insane until you realize though that the Party ID w/ leaners is literally R+13. The other states are all realistic (PA is a tad too red at R+3) but everything is somewhat realistic for that except NV.

[GAinDC]

Wow, realistic numbers in PA/WI/Mi but outlandish numbers in AZ/GA/NV, never seen this before. Ever.

Nevada's #s seem insane until you realize though that the Party ID w/ leaners is literally R+13. The other states are all realistic (PA is a tad too red at R+3) but everything is somewhat realistic for that except NV.

The numbers may look a bit extreme, but I think there are enough polls to show that Biden has a problem in the sunbelt

Either the polls just aren’t getting a good sample of young and nonwhite voters who will come home to Biden in the end, or Trump is really gaining with these groups (if not through persuasion then by turnout)