What should Biden be doing differently?

[Beet]

He is in a tough spot. The backlash against globalization is complete in both parties. However, the reality no one in Washington wants to talk about is that globalization, especially trade with China, did lower prices significantly on a huge number of goods. The China-WTO era 2000-2020 was an era of very low inflation. That enabled lower interest rates. The average person got used to both. Rolling it back with a combination of tariffs, bans, and sanctions, and a push for "friendshoring" and industrial policy essentially means trading a pure economic decision for a political one. That has implications.

The conventional wisdom has become that no one who supports trade with China can win in the Midwestern swing states, and that may be true. Everyone, from the Dem elites on down to the average Trump supporter, has told themselves a story that China is to blame for everything and that America's big mistake was to trade with China, and that trade with China has never brought anything good to America. That ignores the fact that trade with China was never done out of charity. It was because China just happens to be very good at making a lot of stuff for a very low price, and utilizing that capability in exchange for paper dollars that the Fed could print at will had benefits for America. Forcibly shifting supply chains to countries in geopolitical favor was never going to be economically optimal and was always going to have costs. It was never going to solve all the problems that we told ourselves were due to China.

Now Biden has the worst of all worlds. There are only about 200,000 more manufacturing jobs today than there were four years ago. After Trump created about 400,000 in his first term. But the 4 - 5 million manufacturing jobs lost in the first two decades of the millenium have not come back. That's due to a combination of increased productivity and manufacturing and imports simply shifting from China to places like Mexico and Vietnam -- where good cost more to make, but still cheaper than in America. The trade deficit has not meaningfully narrowed under Biden -- on the contrary, it is higher today than it was in the globalization era!

The implementation of industrial policy may pay off in the future, but it's not going to happen in time for the election. Meanwhile, we've made a bunch of changes for the sake of sticking it to China that we've told ourselves were supposed to solve problems, but effectively just make the global economy less efficient, and it's coming at a detriment to Biden.

[jojoju1998]

He is in a tough spot. The backlash against globalization is complete in both parties. However, the reality no one in Washington wants to talk about is that globalization, especially trade with China, did lower prices significantly on a huge number of goods. The China-WTO era 2000-2020 was an era of very low inflation. That enabled lower interest rates. The average person got used to both. Rolling it back with a combination of tariffs, bans, and sanctions, and a push for "friendshoring" and industrial policy essentially means trading a pure economic decision for a political one. That has implications.

The conventional wisdom has become that no one who supports trade with China can win in the Midwestern swing states, and that may be true. Everyone, from the Dem elites on down to the average Trump supporter, has told themselves a story that China is to blame for everything and that America's big mistake was to trade with China, and that trade with China has never brought anything good to America. That ignores the fact that trade with China was never done out of charity. It was because China just happens to be very good at making a lot of stuff for a very low price, and utilizing that capability in exchange for paper dollars that the Fed could print at will had benefits for America. Forcibly shifting supply chains to countries in geopolitical favor was never going to be economically optimal and was always going to have costs. It was never going to solve all the problems that we told ourselves were due to China.

Now Biden has the worst of all worlds. There are only about 200,000 more manufacturing jobs today than there were four years ago. After Trump created about 400,000 in his first term. But the 4 - 5 million manufacturing jobs lost in the first two decades of the millenium have not come back. That's due to a combination of increased productivity and manufacturing and imports simply shifting from China to places like Mexico and Vietnam -- where good cost more to make, but still cheaper than in America. The trade deficit has not meaningfully narrowed under Biden -- on the contrary, it is higher today than it was in the globalization era!

The implementation of industrial policy may pay off in the future, but it's not going to happen in time for the election. Meanwhile, we've made a bunch of changes for the sake of sticking it to China that we've told ourselves were supposed to solve problems, but effectively just make the global economy less efficient, and it's coming at a detriment to Biden.

The irony is that the manufacturing jobs that ARE coming back are less in number. We are far more productive than we were 20-30 years ago, but the technology, the automation, the AI stuff means that it will take less people to make stuff.

But no one wants to tackle that big issue; and it will be a defining issue for the world in the next 20 years, and I don't know if Biden is capable of solving this issue. ( And to be fair, Trump as well. ).

[Beet]

Anyway, what Biden should do based on the above analysis:

1) Feel their pain. Stop pretending prices aren't higher and many things aren't less affordable, including mortgages. Admit that this is causing hardship and show empathy. Admit that a lot of this is due to the decoupling of the world's two largest economies but say that it is necessary to contain China. We all have to belt tighten to beat China and contain it. Turn it into a "what you can do for your country" type thing.

2) Fearmonger like hell over Trump's proposed tariffs that he wants to put on everything. Make ads of ordinary people facing ridiculously high prices and and tie it to Trump's promised tariffs in his second term. Turn the inflation issue into something to attack Trump on. Turn it into a "big loaf, little loaf" election where he's populist from a free trade perspective, like the 1906 UK election.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Anyway, what Biden should do based on the above analysis:

1) Feel their pain. Stop pretending prices aren't higher and many things aren't less affordable, including mortgages. Admit that this is causing hardship and show empathy. Admit that a lot of this is due to the decoupling of the world's two largest economies but say that it is necessary to contain China. We all have to belt tighten to beat China and contain it. Turn it into a "what you can do for your country" type thing.

2) Fearmonger like hell over Trump's proposed tariffs that he wants to put on everything. Make ads of ordinary people facing ridiculously high prices and and tie it to Trump's promised tariffs in his second term. Turn the inflation issue into something to attack Trump on. Turn it into a "big loaf, little loaf" election where he's populist from a free trade perspective, like the 1906 UK election.

Biden is proposing tariffs himself, so 2 is unlikely to work. Biden would clearly be doing better if he did 1, but he seems unwilling to do this, instead running ads about how the economy is the greatest in the world and denying any problem in a CNN interview.

[quesaisje]

He should withdraw from the ticket and allow the convention to pick a nominee who can contest the election more vigorously. Stop telling us that there is no alternative to letting a vain, tired man put himself before his party and his country.

[Progressive Pessimist]

He should withdraw from the ticket and allow the convention to pick a nominee who can contest the election more vigorously. Stop telling us that there is no alternative to letting a vain, tired man put himself before his party and his country.

I think that could only happen if there is a significant recession that finally occurs, as riverwalk has always predicted.

But even then, Harris the obvious replacement and likely wouldn't be doing much better, especially if that hypothetical recession is happening.

[Duke of York]

He should withdraw from the ticket and allow the convention to pick a nominee who can contest the election more vigorously. Stop telling us that there is no alternative to letting a vain, tired man put himself before his party and his country.

Who's your alternative?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The problem for Biden is inflation. That is the single biggest issue that frustrates people more than anything else. He can get away with horrible foreign policy, being an old feeble man, and being culturally out of touch in a vacuum as long as the economy is decent. Even Obama was able to grind through high unemployment. Inflation pisses people off, because it lowers the quality of their life and they can't just tune it out.

[TechbroMBA]

The problem for Biden is inflation. That is the single biggest issue that frustrates people more than anything else. He can get away with horrible foreign policy, being an old feeble man, and being culturally out of touch in a vacuum as long as the economy is decent. Even Obama was able to grind through high unemployment. Inflation pisses people off, because it lowers the quality of their life and they can't just tune it out.

Inflation and the southern border. Gross incompetence, willful negligence rather.

No idea why he is terrified of addressing crime either. If he took some ownership, secured the humanitarian crisis at the border like a functioning commander in chief and was a vocal proponent of safer communities, safe cities, and law enforcement, he could package it with abortion initiatives and sweep public perceptions of the democrat platform. Nobody cares about the fringe groups who have been a thorn in functioning society's side for the last decade.

Instead, he quivers to the nutcases of the party, has no spine, and stands for effectively nothing.

This is a "man" who apologized for referring to a murderer as an illegal. He is a total coward to the left flank of his party.

He is fundamentally a weak person. That's why every policy he's made has been tortured, dithering and slow. He can sign a spending bill with the best of 'em, but can't drive any results or take ownership of any project.

[Duke of York]

The problem for Biden is inflation. That is the single biggest issue that frustrates people more than anything else. He can get away with horrible foreign policy, being an old feeble man, and being culturally out of touch in a vacuum as long as the economy is decent. Even Obama was able to grind through high unemployment. Inflation pisses people off, because it lowers the quality of their life and they can't just tune it out.

and people don't understand the President is not a monarch and can't do very much when it comes to inflation. We need better civics in this country. Too many think the President can make law.