2024-25 NCAA conference realignment thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Missouri State will move up to FBS and join Conference USA for 2025.

Missouri State will become the 12th full member of CUSA and the third school -- along with Kennesaw State this season and Delaware in 2025 -- to move up from the FCS to the FBS and join the league over the next two seasons.

A longtime member of the Missouri Valley Conference, Missouri State has been competing in FCS/I-AA since 1981. The Bears have reached the NCAA playoffs four times, most recently in 2020 and 2021 under then-coach Bobby Petrino.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/40119561/missouri-state-heads-fbs-joining-conference-usa-2025

[7,052,770]

[JGibson]

Who will the MVC take to replace Missouri State? SEMO?

[7,052,770]

What's the draw for a school like SEMO to the MVC anymore? It used to be that the MVC was one of the top mid-major conferences and had a bit of clout, but they'd had their best programs leave and replaced by programs of lesser quality, and now with the portal, every single good player in the league is going to leave for a power conference school every offseason. I saw a chart that every single all-MVC first, second, or third team either graduated or transferred in the last few months.

The mid-majors should just do a large-scale realignment to make themselves as compact as possible to save travel costs. If SEMO to the MVC makes sense through that lens, then add them, otherwise why bother?

[JGibson]

What's the draw for a school like SEMO to the MVC anymore? It used to be that the MVC was one of the top mid-major conferences and had a bit of clout, but they'd had their best programs leave and replaced by programs of lesser quality, and now with the portal, every single good player in the league is going to leave for a power conference school every offseason. I saw a chart that every single all-MVC first, second, or third team either graduated or transferred in the last few months.

The mid-majors should just do a large-scale realignment to make themselves as compact as possible to save travel costs. If SEMO to the MVC makes sense through that lens, then add them, otherwise why bother?

SEMO would have Murray State and SIUC as nearby opponents if they joined the MVC.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is there any conference that's had more turnover in its history than the MVC?  This list is impressive: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missouri_Valley_Conference#Former_full_members_(25)

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

What's the draw for a school like SEMO to the MVC anymore? It used to be that the MVC was one of the top mid-major conferences and had a bit of clout, but they'd had their best programs leave and replaced by programs of lesser quality, and now with the portal, every single good player in the league is going to leave for a power conference school every offseason. I saw a chart that every single all-MVC first, second, or third team either graduated or transferred in the last few months.

The mid-majors should just do a large-scale realignment to make themselves as compact as possible to save travel costs. If SEMO to the MVC makes sense through that lens, then add them, otherwise why bother?

SEMO would have Murray State and SIUC as nearby opponents if they joined the MVC.

The MVFC is down to 10 members already having lost Western Illinois due to competitiveness issues. I don't think you need another OVC laggard and SEMO probably likes where they are with a chance to win football conference titles.

There have long been rumors that Youngstown State might look east if there is a breakaway conference as they have trouble recruiting linemen to be real contenders (and despite recent improvements in basketball, still lack the pedigree to incentive expanding the travel for all sports). Might be addition by subtraction to get to a 9 member round robin. The other members seem rather content, although the Dakota State fans wish they weren't.

The Big East has proved that 11 members is a great size for basketball so there is no rush to expand. Oakland and Morehead are the strongest basketball only programs, but they shouldn't force anything because those are pretty weak candidates - Oakland seems like a potential Valpo that the top of half of the conference may regret. St. Thomas could be better than both in a couple years, and they may not want to upset the Summit League football companions just yet for a lottery ticket.

Most likely stand pat and get some good mid major OOC scheduling in place.

[JGibson]

Another appetizing prospect for the Valley to replace Missouri State: SIUE. I don't see it as likely, but oh my word, a battle of the SIUs in the Valley-- SIUC v. SIUE. It would put a team in the St. Louis DMA.


My Substack on who should replace Missouri State:

My recommendation would be SEMO, since it is a Missouri school that has a football program. I’d love for SIUE to be in it, but since they don’t have a football program, they would be at a disadvantage.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Richmond announced its intent to depart CAA Football by joining the historically struggling Patriot League. This leaves CAA Football with 8 full members (half of which are non competitive) and 6 affiliates. 

With Sacred Heart and Merrimack currently homeless, it would not be surprising to see them join the six affiliates in an "American East" football conference in order to reduce travel - if you must play bad opponents anyway, at least keep them local.

The other options of Duquesne and Youngstown are more desirable but likely too far to make it palatable.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Will California Baptist join the WCC, since it's a Christian school? The WCC also has a better television contract with no home broadcast rights on ESPN+.

No, it doesn't align with the values or athletics of the WCC. Gonzaga would prefer fewer conference games and could threaten to leave with expansion.

Seattle University is Catholic, urban and an historical program. This would be the only logical fit if they can better meet WCC standards of play. Currently they are an inadequate replacement for BYU - closer in quality to USD and Santa Clara than San Francisco and LMU 😳. Too much downside risk. Grand Canyon is also a minor candidate if expansion is needed due to their respectable facilities but is also a longshot

Bizarrely, with Oregon State and Washington State as affiliate members, both Seattle and Grand Canyon were added to the WCC, looking to potentially have 13 members if both WSU and OSU remain homeless. Strange number. I still doubt Cal Baptist is #14. Happy for Seattle but weird timing.

Following that news, Stephen F. Austin returned to the Southland as C-USA has no spots to offer and the WAC surely not looking like a potential FBS upgrade.

The WAC now has 3 Texas schools, 3 Utah schools and Cal Baptist. Tarleton was the only rumored FBS candidate.

Curious if the WAC could try to peel off Northern Arizona and Northern Colorado to continue this experiment, or if the Big Sky invites back Southern Utah and allows Utah Tech to tag along to form a 14 team football conference. The former is a better option since the southern half could struggle to get any at large bid, but it is riskier for the northern schools (Montana) upgrade to FBS.

Easy to see the Texas schools going back to Southland though less clear on Tarleton's intentions. Very unclear who could use Utah Valley or Cal Baptist despite their respectable men's basketball programs. Once again, Big West has no reason to throw a lifeline to Baptist. UVU fits absolutely nowhere and may have to beg for a Summit invite if the WAC fails to lure UNC/NAU. No reason for Big Sky to go to 13 on a non football program.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I've been trying to figure out what the heck has been going on in the MAC, assuming WKU spurned any advanced. Stuck on 13 schools.

The only football first Midwestern schools are Youngstown and Illinois State. The former probably couldn't afford it and the latter is an integral member of the Valley and hasn't sought to change that.

Temple would fit, but they have no reason to pay an exit fee for a downgrade in multiple sports. Their whole athletic program needs new direction.

The UMass move makes zero sense to me still.