1980: President Carter vs Former President Nixon (Watergate still happens and no 22nd Amendment)

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is probably the most accurate analogy to this current election so who wins such a race and what would the map look like

[wnwnwn]

[Steve from Lambeth]

Richard Nixon resigned 1.5 years into his second term and so would have been able to seek re-election in any event.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think California,  Washington, and Connecticut go for Nixon here

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

If Nixon has rejuvinated his image (or at least kept a hold on the base) enough that he can win the nomination post-Watergate, I think he wins the general. Much like 2020, Carter was elected to turn the page from the Nixon years - if the people are willing to give Nixon another shot, what does that say about Carter here?

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Nixon has rejuvinated his image (or at least kept a hold on the base) enough that he can win the nomination post-Watergate, I think he wins the general. Much like 2020, Carter was elected to turn the page from the Nixon years - if the people are willing to give Nixon another shot, what does that say about Carter here?

I could see it though keep in mind unlike Biden, Carter had the EV advantage in 1980. Carter did 2 points better in the tipping point state than he did in the NPV. So assuming the NPV is tied here this is how a uniform swing map would look like:




Carter would win 284-254. Now you could argue Reagan being from the conservative wing of the party hurt him in New England but the problem is that Reagan barely won Maine so I doubt Nixon wins it here and even if you give Nixon CT/VT it would not be enough to win.

In that case Carter would win the presidency with a 271-267 margin so Nixon really would have to flip another state. You could argue Oregon but Oregon is a state more friendly to Carter style populism than CA/WA are and Reagan being from the West likely boosted him there. So then the question is can Nixon win one of IL/PA/MI which were states Reagan won between 6-8 points and the problem is the types of voters who would be most offended by scandal were exactly the type of voters the GOP needed to run up their numbers with in order to win(UMC Suburbanites).

So I think Carter wins extremely narrowly by a 271-267 margin   

[Fuzzy Bear]

I could not imagine a single circumstance where Nixon got nominated.

An alternative narrative to the John Dean Watergate story would have had to have been developed.  That being said, I doubt Nixon would have carried a single state without some kind of 3rd party assistance.

[Mr. Smith]

Nixon wins, if he's gotten far enough to get past the primaries. Much of trickster as Carter could be, he's not cutthroat enough. He's no JFK.