FL: Cherry Communications: Trump +9, +9

[2016]

Bidens Job Approval according to the Florida Chamber of Commerce/Cherry Communications Poll is 37 % with a whopping 63 % Disapproving of Biden.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Trump gets 58 % of Florida Hispanics and Rick Scott is even higher winning 2 out of 3 FL Hispanics.
If this is true it suggests that DeSantis winning Puerto Ricans in 2022 wasn't a one-off.

Rep. Darren Soto & Rep. Jared Moskowitz clinging to dear life with these sort of Numbers.

If that's true, i don't believe for a second Trump will only by 9 points.

He gets as much as DeSantis.

And the whole bottomline so far is Trump also making inroads with AA voters.

Rubio won only 55% of Hispanics. And Trump here would take 58% and we aren't even talking about people who say they would favour an independent over Biden (or are undecided atm).

Trump winning 58% of Hispanics basically suggests a +15 win at least, possibly +20. Unless other demographics groups dramatically shift in favour of Biden, which might relative to the 2022 elections be true. But given Biden is struggling with urban demographics, such as Afro American voters, young voters. And given the panhandle also rural AA's, than Florida might actually back Trump stronger than thought on election day.

Which ironically would be a continuation of the trend set in 2016 and 2020 (and also 2018 + 2022).

With numbers like that, Palm Beach County would be in play.

[2016]

Trump gets 58 % of Florida Hispanics and Rick Scott is even higher winning 2 out of 3 FL Hispanics.
If this is true it suggests that DeSantis winning Puerto Ricans in 2022 wasn't a one-off.

Rep. Darren Soto & Rep. Jared Moskowitz clinging to dear life with these sort of Numbers.

If that's true, i don't believe for a second Trump will only by 9 points.

He gets as much as DeSantis.

And the whole bottomline so far is Trump also making inroads with AA voters.

Rubio won only 55% of Hispanics. And Trump here would take 58% and we aren't even talking about people who say they would favour an independent over Biden (or are undecided atm).

Trump winning 58% of Hispanics basically suggests a +15 win at least, possibly +20. Unless other demographics groups dramatically shift in favour of Biden, which might relative to the 2022 elections be true. But given Biden is struggling with urban demographics, such as Afro American voters, young voters. And given the panhandle also rural AA's, than Florida might actually back Trump stronger than thought on election day.

Which ironically would be a continuation of the trend set in 2016 and 2020 (and also 2018 + 2022).

With numbers like that, Palm Beach County would be in play.

Well, the CBS YouGov Poll has Trump only up 52-47 among Hispanics over Biden. That though is still a 10-Point Shift from the 2020 Exit Polls in FL when Biden won Hispanics over Trump 52-47.

The most interesting plot among Latinos I am looking at is whether Trump wins a Democratic-leaning constituency, PUERTO RICANS. They have generally back Democrats over the last 15 years or so but they did go for DeSantis & Rubio in 2022. They were pretty mad at Trump in 2020 for his handling of Hurricane Maria. Biden got 72 % of the Puerto Rican Hispanics in 2020. Meanwhile DeSantis won 56 % of Puerto Ricans in 2022 & Senator Rubio 54 %. Astonishing for a Group that gave Biden 72 % of the Vote in 2020. We are talking about a 50-Point shift here. If that happens in November Democrats are DEAD in Florida I can guarantee you that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Harris was in FL opening offices there

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Trump gets 58 % of Florida Hispanics and Rick Scott is even higher winning 2 out of 3 FL Hispanics.
If this is true it suggests that DeSantis winning Puerto Ricans in 2022 wasn't a one-off.

Rep. Darren Soto & Rep. Jared Moskowitz clinging to dear life with these sort of Numbers.

If that's true, i don't believe for a second Trump will only by 9 points.

He gets as much as DeSantis.

And the whole bottomline so far is Trump also making inroads with AA voters.

Rubio won only 55% of Hispanics. And Trump here would take 58% and we aren't even talking about people who say they would favour an independent over Biden (or are undecided atm).

Trump winning 58% of Hispanics basically suggests a +15 win at least, possibly +20. Unless other demographics groups dramatically shift in favour of Biden, which might relative to the 2022 elections be true. But given Biden is struggling with urban demographics, such as Afro American voters, young voters. And given the panhandle also rural AA's, than Florida might actually back Trump stronger than thought on election day.

Which ironically would be a continuation of the trend set in 2016 and 2020 (and also 2018 + 2022).

With numbers like that, Palm Beach County would be in play.

Well, the CBS YouGov Poll has Trump only up 52-47 among Hispanics over Biden. That though is still a 10-Point Shift from the 2020 Exit Polls in FL when Biden won Hispanics over Trump 52-47.

That would make more sense and would align more with a +9 victory.

The most interesting plot among Latinos I am looking at is whether Trump wins a Democratic-leaning constituency, PUERTO RICANS. They have generally back Democrats over the last 15 years or so but they did go for DeSantis & Rubio in 2022. They were pretty mad at Trump in 2020 for his handling of Hurricane Maria. Biden got 72 % of the Puerto Rican Hispanics in 2020. Meanwhile DeSantis won 56 % of Puerto Ricans in 2022 & Senator Rubio 54 %. Astonishing for a Group that gave Biden 72 % of the Vote in 2020. We are talking about a 50-Point shift here. If that happens in November Democrats are DEAD in Florida I can guarantee you that.

For that, i guess we will have to wait till election day. But I suppose a shift will happen some way or the other, because anti-incumbency and Hurricane Maria no longer being relevant.

And good chance, Biden will have a chance to redeem himself because Atlantic Hurricane Season is almost certain but guaranteed to be one of the most active Atlantic hurricane seasons ever. it doesn't look good. Of course there's still a chance that like 30 hurricanes create but that none would really strike the USA directly. That is still a possibility. And even in a mild season you can have the bad luck of a pretty bad hurricane striking the USA and otherwise not much activity.

Atlantic Ocean and MDR (main development region) is record warm
WAM (West African Monsoon) will be very active.
We will transition into La Nina most likely which favours hurricane development and low shear levels needed to generate hurricanes.

Literally every single metric is pointing in the wrong direction atm there.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1790864490893844649

On April 24, the University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) issued their prediction of a record-breaking season, predicting an unprecedented 33 (±6) named storms. They cited expected moderate La Niña conditions and record-warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic tied to large-scale warming.

[2016]

Trump gets 58 % of Florida Hispanics and Rick Scott is even higher winning 2 out of 3 FL Hispanics.
If this is true it suggests that DeSantis winning Puerto Ricans in 2022 wasn't a one-off.

Rep. Darren Soto & Rep. Jared Moskowitz clinging to dear life with these sort of Numbers.

If that's true, i don't believe for a second Trump will only by 9 points.

He gets as much as DeSantis.

And the whole bottomline so far is Trump also making inroads with AA voters.

Rubio won only 55% of Hispanics. And Trump here would take 58% and we aren't even talking about people who say they would favour an independent over Biden (or are undecided atm).

Trump winning 58% of Hispanics basically suggests a +15 win at least, possibly +20. Unless other demographics groups dramatically shift in favour of Biden, which might relative to the 2022 elections be true. But given Biden is struggling with urban demographics, such as Afro American voters, young voters. And given the panhandle also rural AA's, than Florida might actually back Trump stronger than thought on election day.

Which ironically would be a continuation of the trend set in 2016 and 2020 (and also 2018 + 2022).

With numbers like that, Palm Beach County would be in play.

Well, the CBS YouGov Poll has Trump only up 52-47 among Hispanics over Biden. That though is still a 10-Point Shift from the 2020 Exit Polls in FL when Biden won Hispanics over Trump 52-47.

That would make more sense and would align more with a +9 victory.

The most interesting plot among Latinos I am looking at is whether Trump wins a Democratic-leaning constituency, PUERTO RICANS. They have generally back Democrats over the last 15 years or so but they did go for DeSantis & Rubio in 2022. They were pretty mad at Trump in 2020 for his handling of Hurricane Maria. Biden got 72 % of the Puerto Rican Hispanics in 2020. Meanwhile DeSantis won 56 % of Puerto Ricans in 2022 & Senator Rubio 54 %. Astonishing for a Group that gave Biden 72 % of the Vote in 2020. We are talking about a 50-Point shift here. If that happens in November Democrats are DEAD in Florida I can guarantee you that.

For that, i guess we will have to wait till election day. But I suppose a shift will happen some way or the other, because anti-incumbency and Hurricane Maria no longer being relevant.

And good chance, Biden will have a chance to redeem himself because Atlantic Hurricane Season is almost certain but guaranteed to be one of the most active Atlantic hurricane seasons ever. it doesn't look good. Of course there's still a chance that like 30 hurricanes create but that none would really strike the USA directly. That is still a possibility. And even in a mild season you can have the bad luck of a pretty bad hurricane striking the USA and otherwise not much activity.

Atlantic Ocean and MDR (main development region) is record warm
WAM (West African Monsoon) will be very active.
We will transition into La Nina most likely which favours hurricane development and low shear levels needed to generate hurricanes.

Literally every single metric is pointing in the wrong direction atm there.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1790864490893844649

On April 24, the University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) issued their prediction of a record-breaking season, predicting an unprecedented 33 (±6) named storms. They cited expected moderate La Niña conditions and record-warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic tied to large-scale warming.

Well, even if a Hurricane does strike Florida (And I hope it doesn't) the State has a pretty good crisis Manager in Governor DeSantis. The way he and the Florida Emergency Department handled Hurricanes IAN (2022) and IDALIA (2023) was pretty darn good.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Well, even if a Hurricane does strike Florida (And I hope it doesn't) the State has a pretty good crisis Manager in Governor DeSantis. The way he and the Florida Emergency Department handled Hurricanes IAN (2022) and IDALIA (2023) was pretty darn good.

If he does a good job, than all the better for everyone involved here.

And I also hope it will be mostly fishy storms (that don't impact land) or minimal impact, but it's better to be prepared for the worst.

So far, even is SSTs warm at the slowest rate ever from may to august, there would be three years that would be warmer than 2024 in the tropical region: 2005, 2020 and last year 2023. Last year had an El Nino so not eveyr metric was in favour.

2005 and 2020 are tied record breaking seasons, 2005 having Katrina also as most famous hurricane.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump+9 is looking pretty consistent.

Is this the year Florida polls are finally accurate?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Trump+9 is looking pretty consistent.

Is this the year Florida polls are finally accurate?

inb4 trump ends up winning by rubio/de santis margins

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Trump gets 58 % of Florida Hispanics and Rick Scott is even higher winning 2 out of 3 FL Hispanics.
If this is true it suggests that DeSantis winning Puerto Ricans in 2022 wasn't a one-off.

Rep. Darren Soto & Rep. Jared Moskowitz clinging to dear life with these sort of Numbers.

If that's true, i don't believe for a second Trump will only by 9 points.

He gets as much as DeSantis.

And the whole bottomline so far is Trump also making inroads with AA voters.

Rubio won only 55% of Hispanics. And Trump here would take 58% and we aren't even talking about people who say they would favour an independent over Biden (or are undecided atm).

Trump winning 58% of Hispanics basically suggests a +15 win at least, possibly +20. Unless other demographics groups dramatically shift in favour of Biden, which might relative to the 2022 elections be true. But given Biden is struggling with urban demographics, such as Afro American voters, young voters. And given the panhandle also rural AA's, than Florida might actually back Trump stronger than thought on election day.

Which ironically would be a continuation of the trend set in 2016 and 2020 (and also 2018 + 2022).

With numbers like that, Palm Beach County would be in play.

Well, the CBS YouGov Poll has Trump only up 52-47 among Hispanics over Biden. That though is still a 10-Point Shift from the 2020 Exit Polls in FL when Biden won Hispanics over Trump 52-47.

That would make more sense and would align more with a +9 victory.

The most interesting plot among Latinos I am looking at is whether Trump wins a Democratic-leaning constituency, PUERTO RICANS. They have generally back Democrats over the last 15 years or so but they did go for DeSantis & Rubio in 2022. They were pretty mad at Trump in 2020 for his handling of Hurricane Maria. Biden got 72 % of the Puerto Rican Hispanics in 2020. Meanwhile DeSantis won 56 % of Puerto Ricans in 2022 & Senator Rubio 54 %. Astonishing for a Group that gave Biden 72 % of the Vote in 2020. We are talking about a 50-Point shift here. If that happens in November Democrats are DEAD in Florida I can guarantee you that.

For that, i guess we will have to wait till election day. But I suppose a shift will happen some way or the other, because anti-incumbency and Hurricane Maria no longer being relevant.

And good chance, Biden will have a chance to redeem himself because Atlantic Hurricane Season is almost certain but guaranteed to be one of the most active Atlantic hurricane seasons ever. it doesn't look good. Of course there's still a chance that like 30 hurricanes create but that none would really strike the USA directly. That is still a possibility. And even in a mild season you can have the bad luck of a pretty bad hurricane striking the USA and otherwise not much activity.

Atlantic Ocean and MDR (main development region) is record warm
WAM (West African Monsoon) will be very active.
We will transition into La Nina most likely which favours hurricane development and low shear levels needed to generate hurricanes.

Literally every single metric is pointing in the wrong direction atm there.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1790864490893844649

On April 24, the University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) issued their prediction of a record-breaking season, predicting an unprecedented 33 (±6) named storms. They cited expected moderate La Niña conditions and record-warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic tied to large-scale warming.

A very active hurricane season will also likely push up gas prices by knocking out refineries, so this could still be bad for Biden even if he manages to respond well.