Ealing Southall and Sedgefield by-elections thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This thought can't lead to anything beyond mere speculation, but I'd imagine this constituency has a fairly large Polish community, given Ealing was well-known for having a large Polish community even before recent Polish immigration..

Ealing as a borough yes, but not really this part of it. Acton proper has a large Polish community (as does Hammersmith over the borough boundary) and Northolt's had one since the War.

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None; most are not British citizens, yet (as E.U. citizens they can vote in Euro/Local elections, and some did).
A lot will be soon though as they seem to be following the same sort of pattern as previous groups of immigrants (the overwhelming majority of West Indian immigrants, for example, intended to return home after a few years) as regards settling here.

[Verily]

How diverse is Southall's Asian community?

Dave

This data is either for the old or the new seat

Hindu: 12.4%
Muslim: 13.3%
Sikh: 23.2%

That is a % of the total population.

Thanks

There's a substantial Chinese population, too; around 6% IIRC.

[Platypus]

...so maybe it'd be a good idea for one of the parties to run a non-subcontinent heritage candidate? Selecting a candidate on the basis of race is unfortunate, but it would make political sense for one of the big three to nominate someone of a different ethnicity.

[Verily]

...so maybe it'd be a good idea for one of the parties to run a non-subcontinent heritage candidate? Selecting a candidate on the basis of race is unfortunate, but it would make political sense for one of the big three to nominate someone of a different ethnicity.

The problem is, of course, that Indians will not vote for non-Indians, but non-Indians are perfectly willing to vote for Indians.

It's been interesting to hear that minority (Indian) turnout is expected to be higher than majority (European) turnout. I wonder whether that will pan out. I would expect it to help Labour if it does since Labour has the Hindus as a solid block and at least half of the Sikhs despite defections (plus maybe 1/3 of Muslims, with the rest splitting between the Lib Dems and RESPECT).

[afleitch]

Unfortunately, as I said earlier, there is a 'tribalism' in these sort of seats (which often mirrors family politics in the subcontinent) which all three main parties, instead of trying to end, are instead complicit in. They know that if you can secure the 'personal' vote of a community representative (one of the most famous examples is in Slough for example) you either have the seat in the bag or you increase it's competitiveness.

[Silent Hunter]

Full list of candidates for both elections:
Sedgefield
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6285356.stm
Ealing Southall
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6283832.stm

[Ben.]

Another Labour Cllr defects to the Tories... this just gets better and better!

Councillor Zahida Abbas Noori (Broadway ward).

Judging by the name not a Sikh Cllr either(?), I'm really starting to wonder if Labour could be in real trouble as it looks like a significant portion of the electorate they would normally have been able to rely on might not just be withholding their support but actively backing Lit.

[afleitch]

Well it's been a 25 year wait for a by-election gain from Labour. If we don't do it this time I can wait a little longer

The IDS report and it's recomendations might help the Tories a bit on the street. A significant chunk of my own vote in May, I've been told, came form working class areas. To go in there and be honest and engage them when everyone else (Labour included) gives them a miss because they 'always vote Labour' can reap dividends. As long as the economy ticks over, a large number of ex-Tories will vote Labour. It's our job to appeal to the working poor , the dispossed and the young left behind by Labour to make up for the shortfall.

Regardless of what happens and how it happened, it's been a good campaign so far.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Councillor Zahida Abbas Noori (Broadway ward).

Judging by the name not a Sikh Cllr either(?),

Looks like a Muslim name. And thus still reeks of Communalism and/or Factionalism. I suspect that all of Gurcharan Singh's cronies on the council will cross the floor as well (if they haven't all already done so already).

I'm beginning to get quite angry at what seems to be going on and the extremely ugly reasons for it, though not quite as angry as I am about the fact that Gurcharan Singh (who turns out to be an extremist with links to some charming organisations...) wasn't thrown out of the Labour Party years ago...
All the three major parties have been far too accomodating to people like him for decades.

All in all (and considering some of the other sh*t that's been going on) this looks set to be the nastiest by-election since Bermondsey.

---

In other news, I've just noticed that one of the candidates in Sedgefield (Paul Gittins) is a counciller in Newton Aycliffe.

[Democratic Hawk]

Full list of candidates for both elections:

Ealing Southall
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6283832.stm

What's this David Cameron's Conservatives lark ? He's not Indira Gandhi

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Full list of candidates for both elections:

Ealing Southall
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6283832.stm

What's this David Cameron's Conservatives lark ? He's not Indira Gandhi

Dave

If Cameron was Indira Gandhi, Gurcharan Singh certainly wouldn't have endorsed Lit!

[afleitch]

Full list of candidates for both elections:

Ealing Southall
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6283832.stm

What's this David Cameron's Conservatives lark ? He's not Indira Gandhi

Dave

He's not Indira Gandhi
But he can endear can't he?

[Ben.]

Well it's been a 25 year wait for a by-election gain from Labour. If we don't do it this time I can wait a little longer

The IDS report and it's recomendations might help the Tories a bit on the street. A significant chunk of my own vote in May, I've been told, came form working class areas. To go in there and be honest and engage them when everyone else (Labour included) gives them a miss because they 'always vote Labour' can reap dividends. As long as the economy ticks over, a large number of ex-Tories will vote Labour. It's our job to appeal to the working poor , the dispossed and the young left behind by Labour to make up for the shortfall.

Regardless of what happens and how it happened, it's been a good campaign so far.

As much as he was never cut out to be any kind of party leader or even senior minister or shadow, IDS has a real passion for issues like social justice and has suggested some pretty innovative policy ideas... should provide a good base for the next manifesto.

The decline of the traditional "working class tory vote" seems to have coincided with the decline in the size of the "traditional" working class its self... but if the party can be seen as a credible voice on issues of poverty and social welfare, then it should go some way to beginning to rebuild a base of support beyond the restrictive electorate that the Tory party has found itself increasingly limited to.

But on the subject of Ealing, yes it sounds horribly factious, but thats doesn't detract from what could be one of the best campaigns ran by the Tories in years (he said before Ealing became yet another LibDem shock by-election victory ).

[Democratic Hawk]

Full list of candidates for both elections:

Ealing Southall
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6283832.stm

What's this David Cameron's Conservatives lark ? He's not Indira Gandhi

Dave

If Cameron was Indira Gandhi, Gurcharan Singh certainly wouldn't have endorsed Lit!

The point I'm making is that David Cameron's Conservatives has that tone of 'cult of personality' about it, which has characterised the Indian National Congress

Gurcharan Singh is for Gurcharan Singh not Tony Lit nor David Cameron

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Speaking of Ealing Southall, spare a thought for the forgotten Southall voter, that is, your White-British Christian

I find it immensely troubling that none of the major parties are running a candidate from Southall's largest single ethno-religious demographic

Dave

[Ben.]

Speaking of Ealing Southall, spare a thought for the forgotten Southall voter, that is, your White-British Christian

I find it immensely troubling that none of the major parties are running a candidate from Southall's largest single ethno-religious demographic

Dave

To be honest I'd have expected at least one of the three main parties to run a "white" candidate if only to differentiate themselves from the others and potentially place themselves above the squabbles within the local community.

As it is, the turnout in the Asian areas of the seat is likely to be fairly high probably a contributory factor to all three main party candidates being Asian... still remains to be seen how that impacts on the non-Asian voters in the seat, though i'd expect them to break in line with how the seat goes as a whole - if LibDem or Tories surge then that'll be reflected in the white areas of the seat, to be honest I'd have thought it was the white areas that were the traditional base for the Tories in the seat and were where there 20% of the vote came from last time around, they'll be looking to get that vote out and augment it with what ever share of the Asian vote that Lit and folks like the defected cllrs can bring over.     

[Serenity Now]

Speaking of Ealing Southall, spare a thought for the forgotten Southall voter, that is, your White-British Christian

I find it immensely troubling that none of the major parties are running a candidate from Southall's largest single ethno-religious demographic

Dave

The Green candidate, Sarah Edwards, is white (but I know nothing of her religion) which may make her the only white candidate. This would help the Greens (but sadly for the wrong reason).. There's a reasonable chance of them saving their deposit anyway as they came close to doing so in 2005 and they have a decent level of support in some wards in the east of the constituency.

In relation to my previous point, didn't the Greens once do surprisingly well in a Bradford ward because theirs was the only candidate who was white?

[Verily]

Well it's been a 25 year wait for a by-election gain from Labour. If we don't do it this time I can wait a little longer

The IDS report and it's recomendations might help the Tories a bit on the street. A significant chunk of my own vote in May, I've been told, came form working class areas. To go in there and be honest and engage them when everyone else (Labour included) gives them a miss because they 'always vote Labour' can reap dividends. As long as the economy ticks over, a large number of ex-Tories will vote Labour. It's our job to appeal to the working poor , the dispossed and the young left behind by Labour to make up for the shortfall.

Regardless of what happens and how it happened, it's been a good campaign so far.

But on the subject of Ealing, yes it sounds horribly factious, but thats doesn't detract from what could be one of the best campaigns ran by the Tories in years (he said before Ealing became yet another LibDem shock by-election victory ).

It doesn't strike me as being a good Tory campaign at all. (Cheadle was a good Tory campaign, but they still lost.) The Tories have benefited from idiotic local politicians who have nothing better to do with their time than snipe at each other.

Tony Lit's father did well in 2001 because he's a wealthy owner of a radio station that ran pseudo-advertisements (not legally advertisements, but essentially the same thing) for him throughout the campaign. He basically bought all of his votes. Lit is nothing special.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In relation to my previous point, didn't the Greens once do surprisingly well in a Bradford ward because theirs was the only candidate who was white?

Not a ward but a constituency; Bradford West in 2001. Most of the Green vote in that seat from 2001 voted BNP in 2005. The Greens did actually have a counciller in the constituency until this year (when he lost his seat to Labour) but the sort of people who vote Green in local elections in Heaton ward aren't exactly the sort of people that voted Green in 2001...

There are actually other (and also rather ugly) similarities between the current situation in Ealing Southall and past (hopefully...) situations in Bradford West... but at least the Tories aren't running Gurcharan Singh as their candidate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Odd; apparently Cllr. Noori hasn't defected to the Tories after all.

[Ben.]

Well it's been a 25 year wait for a by-election gain from Labour. If we don't do it this time I can wait a little longer

The IDS report and it's recomendations might help the Tories a bit on the street. A significant chunk of my own vote in May, I've been told, came form working class areas. To go in there and be honest and engage them when everyone else (Labour included) gives them a miss because they 'always vote Labour' can reap dividends. As long as the economy ticks over, a large number of ex-Tories will vote Labour. It's our job to appeal to the working poor , the dispossed and the young left behind by Labour to make up for the shortfall.

Regardless of what happens and how it happened, it's been a good campaign so far.

But on the subject of Ealing, yes it sounds horribly factious, but thats doesn't detract from what could be one of the best campaigns ran by the Tories in years (he said before Ealing became yet another LibDem shock by-election victory ).

It doesn't strike me as being a good Tory campaign at all. (Cheadle was a good Tory campaign, but they still lost.) The Tories have benefited from idiotic local politicians who have nothing better to do with their time than snipe at each other.

Tony Lit's father did well in 2001 because he's a wealthy owner of a radio station that ran pseudo-advertisements (not legally advertisements, but essentially the same thing) for him throughout the campaign. He basically bought all of his votes. Lit is nothing special.

hmmm... strong candidate selected early, head start on the poster war, established themselves as the "challengers", taken advantage of the alienation of elements of the local labour party and (more importantly the wider Sikh community) in no small part thanks to having a very strong local campaign... sorry but frankly if the tory campaign wasn't strong they wouldn't be in the position their now in (challenging Labour hard in what should be a safe seat).   

Agree on Cheadle though, was a good Tory campaign (very negative... but a very strong campiagn never the less) but the disapearance of the Labour vote and a significant 'sympathy vote' is what did for the Tories in that seat IMHO.

[minionofmidas]

Speaking of Ealing Southall, spare a thought for the forgotten Southall voter, that is, your White-British Christian

I find it immensely troubling that none of the major parties are running a candidate from Southall's largest single ethno-religious demographic

Dave

The Green candidate, Sarah Edwards, is white (but I know nothing of her religion) which may make her the only white candidate. This would help the Greens (but sadly for the wrong reason).. There's a reasonable chance of them saving their deposit anyway as they came close to doing so in 2005 and they have a decent level of support in some wards in the east of the constituency.

In relation to my previous point, didn't the Greens once do surprisingly well in a Bradford ward because theirs was the only candidate who was white?

Constituency, not just ward. Saved their deposit in 2001.

[Ben.]

Would expect the Greens to get squeezed, yes their the only mainstream party to have a white candidate but i dont see that boosting them to much, the Greens have no form in by-elections despite a comparatively strong local base in Ealing from the last election... I'd expect 3/4 of what vote they have (and bothers to go to the polls) to split between Labour and the LibDems (mostly to the LibDems I'd expect), but frankly I'm not sure it'll have a significant impact.   

[afleitch]

Noori did, apparently confirm she would defect but changed her mind. Labours campaign manager Tom Watson said 'no she didn't' and is threatening a form of legal action. Iain Dale said, 'yes she did' and apparently has the statement to prove it.

Getting strange....

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Getting stranger

Fixed your post.

Hopefully things won't get even worse next week, but I'm now quite sure that that's a rather foolish hope... I mean, I'm almost expecting to hear news of a campaign office going up in flames...

You know, I've been slowly coming around to the idea that by-elections manage to represent just about everything that's wrong with British Politics for some time, but I'd not quite believed it until the past few days.