The 2024 Presidential Election: A week by week timeline

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Gallup Polls Giftgate

Do you think Sen. Joanne Hurt forgot to disclose gifts received from the Deputy Prime Minister of Spain?

Yes: 13%
No: 71%
Unsure: 16%

Do you think Sen. Joanne Hurt purposefully chose to not disclose gifts received from the Deputy PM?

Yes: 72%
No: 11%
Unsure: 17%

Do you think that Sen. Joanne Hurt's failure to disclose such gifts is a major issue?

Yes: 62%
No: 38%

Does this issue affect your vote?

Yes: 46%
No: 40%
Undecided: 14%

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Marist: Short surges amid Giftgate

May 23 - 26 (1200 RV)

Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 43% (-3)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 45 (+4)
Steven DiFalco (presumptive nominee) (CDP) - 10% (-1%)

Quinnipiac: Short Up

May 22 - May 25 (800 RV)

Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 40% (-4)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 47% (+4)
Steven DiFalco (CDP) - 11%(=)

NYT/Siena: Short rises, Hurt maintains narrow lead

May 20 - May 24 (1000 RV)

Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 41% (-2)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 39% (+3)
Steven DiFalco (CDP) - 17% (-2)

CNN: Hurt drops, Short rises after Giftgate reporting

May 21 - 25 (1125 RV)

Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 39% (-3)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 47% (+4)
Steven DiFalco (CDP) - 12% (+2)

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Current polling map as of May 5, 2024

Red - States where Short has a >5% lead across a 5 poll average.

Blue - States where Hurt has a >5% lead across a 5 poll average.

Orange - States where Falco (presumptive nominee) has a >5% lead across a 5 poll average.

Gray - Competitive states where no candidate has more than a 5% lead across a 5 poll average.

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Quinnipiac: Short gains lead in in New York

A new poll from Quinnipiac poll has shown home state Governor Veronica Short gaining the lead in the state, leading by 3, earning 45% of the Empire State vote to Hurt's 41%.

The Quinnipiac poll breaks down the results further.

Manhattan: Short +3
Brooklyn: Short +10
Queens: Short +1
Bronx: Short +13
Staten Island: Short +18
New York City total: Short +7

Westchester: Hurt +7
Suffolk: Hurt +24
Nassau: Hurt +10
Upstate: Short +10
West New York: Short +8

By median household income
Under 50,000: Short +18
50,000 to 75,000: Short +9
75,000 to 100,000: Hurt +3
100,000 to 125,000: Hurt +15
125,000+: Hurt +17

By education
High School: Short +18
Associates or some college: Short +14
Bachelor's: Hurt +1
Master's: Hurt +7
Doctorate: Hurt +21

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FOX Poll: Hurt Leads in Texas

San Antonio, May 20

Sen. Joanne Hurt has maintained a healthy lead in Texas according to a recent Fox news poll. Texas, traditionally an American Labor stronghold, has drifted away from the ALP in recent years due to the loss of some working class whites to the Christian Democratic Party. Furthermore, the growth of suburbs in the Dallas, Houston, and Austin areas have padded NNL leads in the state. However, the ALP still relies on Hispanics, urban voters, and East Texans to remain somewhat competitive in the Lone Star state.

Also a factor is the Christian Democratic Party, which siphons votes away from both parties. Traditionally a party of rural evangelicals, the CDP has since taken a turn towards southern evangelical suburbanites who maintain conservative and religious social positions but take less of a laborist view towards economics. The result over the past few cycles has been that the CDP has taken more votes from the NNL in places like Ellis, Johnson, and Kaufman counties, exurban areas on the Dallas-Fort Worth periphery. Short's socially moderate positions appeal to many inner suburban working voters. Meanwhile, the outer and more affluent suburbs are a battleground between the NNL and CDP.

The poll in particular shows Hurt with a six point lead. Hurt leads Veronica Short 41-35 with the CDP's Steven DiFalco capturing 16% of the vote. 8% were undecided. The poll also asked voting intentions of all decided voters.

For Hurt:
Definitely vote for Hurt - 48%
Likely vote for Hurt - 39%
Leaning vote for Hurt - 13%

For Short:
Definitely vote for Short - 53%
Likely vote for Short - 41%
Leaning vote for Short - 6%

For DiFalco:
Definitley vote for DiFalco - 26%
Likely vote for DiFalco - 35%
Leaning vote for DiFalco - 39%

These results point to a large amount of soft support for DiFalco, considering the bulk of respondents who chose him are only leaning towards him. Meanwhile, both Short and Hurt have a stronger base of supporters who definitely plan to vote for them in November.

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Hurt Veepstakes Upended by Giftgate

Sen. Marianne Ioannidis

May 25, New York.

Prior to May 17, Sen. Joanne Hurt's VP shortlist was mostly composed of Southern politicos that would bring geographic balance to the ticket, considering Hurt is from suburban Minnesota. Such names included Sen. Mark Wynn (GA), Fmr. Sen. Pat McCullough (NC), Fmr. Gov. Sam Ruiz (TX), and businessman Arron Fuller (SC). However, since the revelation that Hurt accepted nearly $1000 worth of gifts from the Spanish government and failed to disclose them, her calculus has changed.

Now, other names have risen to the top of the list. One name includes Daniel Stevenson, an eight-term congressman from Michigan who notably served as Chair of the Financial Services committee and later served as Special Counsel on Ethics to President Carey after his retirement from the House. Stevenson remains a popular figure in Michigan and would possibly cut into Short's margin in the state and could also shore up NNL support in nearby Wisconsin and Illinois.

Rep. Daniel Stevenson

Another name on the list is Marianne Ioannidis, New York state's junior senator and previous public advocate of New York City, serving as the city's top watchdog. Ioannidis clashed with Veronica Short several times during her tenure as public advocate until she was elected to the Senate in 2020. Choosing Ioannidis could possibly increase Hurt's support in swingy New York City and stop the state's recent movement to its very own governor. However, a two-woman ticket might be a tall order for a historic match between two female candidates.

The recent VP shakeup has attracted both admiration and ire. Dean Michael, NNL congressman from Pennsylvania, said the following. "Hurt is looking at all her options and trying to find who she believes will be the best partner in government. I think it's very good she is looking at people who are experienced in public advocacy, accountability, and ethics. It shows that she has the judgment needed to run a winning campaign."

Others have been less flattering. Chris Wisnewski, ALP Senator from Missouri and a possible veep pick himself for Short, had this to say. "Hurt is seeing her numbers fall and is getting worried, so naturally she'll go for the cleanest and most ethical politicians she can find to clean up her image. It's somewhat funny that a Senator accused of corruption is now trying to tap an anti-corruption politician to be her running mate." He said. "I don't think it will work on voters."

An anonymous NNL staffer working for a Senate campaign was not as friendly either. "This just looks desperate and way too on the nose. Hurt should have remained on track with her VP search. Now she looks indecisive and way too prone to shifts in public opinion. She's lucky this ordeal is happening in May and not October."

With the NNL convention and nominating process not until late July, there is still plenty of time for the Senator to choose.

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Generic Congressional Ballot: NNL Coalition Leads by 4

A new poll by NYT/Ipsos has shown that the New National Liberal Coalition leads the generic ballot by 4 points, receiving 44% of the vote to the American Labor Coalition's 40%. The remaining 16% went to the Christian Democrats. NYT/Ipsos' last poll had the NNL coalition up 6, 45 to 39.

In the NNL coalition is also the pro-business, suburban aligned MiddleGround (MG). The NNL-MG bloc hold 246 seats in the House. The American Labor Coalition is composed of both the ALP as well as the Social Democratic Party, which combined hold 185 seats.

The NNL-MG coalition has been the majority faction in congress since 2017, when it was swept into power alongside NNL nominee Charles Carey who won the 2016 election. In 2018, the bloc grew their majority to 277 seats and were able to pass a number of Carey's legislative priorities. However, after the onset of COVID and its subsequent economic downturn, the bloc lost 11 seats in that November election as Carey narrowly won re-election with a slightly smaller victory than he had achieved four years prior. In 2022, the bloc suffered another loss with 20 seats flipping to the ALP-SDP coalition. However, they still maintained control over the House.

This current lead is much reduced than what the NNL-MG bloc usually sees around mid-spring before an election. In 2022, the bloc led the GCB by 5 on April 30. In May 2020, they led the GCB by 7, and in 2018 they led the GCB by 14.

In 2020 and 2022 the bloc saw these leads gradually diminish. By election day in 2022 the NNL-MG bloc led the GCB aggregate by 3.2% and won the popular vote by 2.6% despite losing twenty seats. In 2020, they led the November GCB aggregate by 5.6% and won the popular vote by 3.1%. Only in 2018 did the NNL-MG bloc maintain a healthy polling lead that matched their ultimate win. That year, they earned 11.2% of the vote.

If one were to apply the trend to this year's election, the result would be an evaporated NNL coalition lead and a popular vote win by the ALP. However, with still such a tall majority on their hands, it may not result in the NNL-MG bloc losing their majority.

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Flashback: Charles Carey (NNL) wins big in 2016

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Cool world

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ALP sees opportunity to take seats in Senate

Washington D.C.,

The current Senate composition benefits the NNL. As it stands, the New National Liberals hold 57 seats to the ALP's 43. The NNL also controls the Senate delegation in the nation's top five most populous states. This commanding majority, although short of a filibuster, allows the NNL plenty of room to pass legislation and send it to President Carey's desk, including last year's controversial Main Street Modernization Act (MSMA). The MSMA, while it increased broadband internet access across a wide variety of rural communities, also instituted a regressive tax structure that benefited the top earning companies and more heavily taxed lower earning companies. ALP and labor leaders called the measure a tool to enrich the top one-percent and burden the working class business owners. However, the act's rising unpopularity has led to a backlash towards the NNL and reduced their electoral advantage going into November.

Red: ALP Senators retiring - Ann Clarke (Wisconsin) and Judd Sharpe (Nevada)

Blue: NNL Senators retiring - Judy Wood (New York), Jerry Welch (Indiana), Bill Cameron (North Dakota)

Furthermore, the retirement of NNL senators in key swing states adds to ALP hopes of expanding their numbers in the upper house. Prime among these retirements is Judy Wood, who has been New York's senior senator since 2001 and is the NNL's chief whip in the Senate. After she announced she was retiring in 2023, the floodgate was opened to potential successors. On the ALP side, Chiji Kamdibe has emerged as the nominee. Kamdibe, a four-term congressman who has been noted for his moderate stances, presents a serious threat to the NNL. He is a social liberal who has spoken out against his party on a few occasions, but still holds the party line on important votes, such as labor protections, raising the minimum wage, and universal healthcare. Polls show that the race between Kamdibe and Matt Shleck, the NNL nominee, remain close. A recent Axios poll showed a tie.

In Indiana, longtime NNL Senator Jerry Welch will not be running for election. First elected in 2000, Welch became an electoral powerhouse in Indiana, winning with 56% of the vote in 2006, 59% in 2012, and 69% in 2018. Welch ran for President unsuccessfully in 2008 and came second in the NNL primaries before becoming the NNL conference leader in 2010. His retirement comes as no surprise to DC insiders as the Indiana senator recently turned 83. His exit presents opportunities to a new generation of NNL candidates as well as a potential flip to the ALP. On May 7, the ALP nominated Georgia Dietch, Mayor of Fort Wayne and previous Congresswoman. She will face off against Congressman Tom Williams. The race is currently rated as a tossup.

Current Senate rankings: Shades of red indicate ALP leans, shades of blue indicate NNL leans, and gray indicate tossups

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Marist: Short continues to grow lead

May 28 - June 2 (1200 RV)

Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 42% (-1)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 46 (+1)
Steven DiFalco (presumptive nominee) (CDP) - 10% (=)

Quinnipiac: Short Rises

May 27 - May 31 (800 RV)

Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 39% (-1)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 49% (+1)
Steven DiFalco (CDP) - 11%(=)

NYT/Siena: National Tie

May 29 - June 1 (1000 RV)

Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 41% (=)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 41% (+2)
Steven DiFalco (CDP) - 17% (=)

CNN: Hurt maintains strong lead

May 25 - June 1 (1125 RV)

Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 40% (-1)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 48% (+1)
Steven DiFalco (CDP) - 10% (-2)

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Turkey mobilizes forces on Iraqi border

1 June. Ankara.

The Turkish military has begun mobilizing along the Turkish-Iraqi border in anticipation of possible hostilities. The Turkish Air Force has begun amassing equipment and troops at a number of locations, including the Diyarbakir Airport as well as the Bamarni Air Base located within Iraqi Kurdistan. The 6th, 7th, and 8th army corps has also begun organizing in southeast Turkey.

In response, the Iraqi-Kurdish army, called the Peshmerga, has been mobilizing in northern Iraq and issued warnings to the Turkish government against any hostile actions. The Peshmerga is made up of several partisan factions that have previously divided the forces. However, the spread of ISIS has shown that the Kurdish military forces are an effective fighting body. Since 2014, Peshmerga has received light arms from many foreign nations as well as from the US-led NATO coalition. However, a major issue in Peshmerga armament has been lack of cooperation from the Iraqi government based in Baghdad, a government which has blocked the sale of heavier and more modern weaponry.

The Iraqi Army itself is forbidden from entering Kurdish territory which presents a serious difficulty in defending against a potential Turkish invasion. Saudi Arabia has pledged to defend Iraq from a potential invasion from Turkey, but it is not clear if the Saudis will be particularly defensive of Kurdish interests outside of territory.

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This Sunday will see updates from this past weekend as well as next!

[Steve from Lambeth]

Now we really are doing a week-by-week timeline

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Major SDP Candidate Won't Run

Boston. June 14.

Former Massachussets governor Anne Shields has just announced that she will not be running for president nor pursuing the Social Democrat's nomination for President. "After talking with my family and staff, I have decided that a presidential run is not in my path this year. At this moment, I am dedicated to spending time with my new grandchildren." She said in a statement released today.

Several commentators have speculated that Shields declined to run in fear of siphoning votes away from the ALP, as was the case in 2016. Shields, a Northeast liberal, could very well have taken enough votes away from Veronica Short in crucial northeastern swing states like New York. Shields has not endorsed any candidate in the race. The SDP did not endorse a presidential candidate in 2020. Currently, the SDP holds 9 seats in the House of Representatives and 1 gubernatorial seats: Rhode Island.

Other candidates in the SDP are still speculated to be vying for their parties nomination, however it is not a given that the party will ultimately field a presidential candidate. The SDP is still nominating candidates for a plethora of other races, such as gubernatorial contests, mayorships, and state legislatures. The SDP is rumored to be considering a members-only vote on whether or not to field a candidate at all.

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Short to march in New York Pride on June 30, supports most pro-LGBQT platform in ALP history

June 16. New York City.

Veronica Short has announced that she will be marching in New York for the city's annual Pride March on Sunday, June 30. The March has been held since 1970 and represents the main pro-LGBTQ event in the city. While she would not be the first politico or nominee to march in the parade, her announcement marks a distinct departure from typical ALP practices. The party, traditionally a bastion of socially moderate to conservative working class voters, has gradually become more pro-LGBTQ over the years. Despite this, the NNL remains the biggest benefactor of gay voters. In 2016, for instance, Charles Carey won an estimated 74% of LGBTQ voters, especially those of the middle class. However, in 2020, that margin dropped to 67%. With the ALP continuing to inch left on the issue, this advantage may become even less pronounced.

Short is no stranger to LGBTQ advocacy. In 2012, while she was still a Congresswoman, Short called for a national Anti-Bullying Law with specific LGBTQ language following the suicide of Tyler Clementi, a New Jersey student who was outed by his roommate. Just four years later, after the Pulse nightclub shooting in Orlando, Short called for increased gun reforms and background checks. On her website, Short ties LGBTQ advocacy to the fight for workers and working families. She has proposed a federal Equality Act that explicitly bans discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity.

It is not known if Short will be marching with a specific float or will be apart of a larger group.

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Carey urges Congress to authorize weapons package for Turkey, faces stiff opposition

June 11. Washington.

Today, President Carey urged congress to authorize $11B in military aid to Turkey after tensions continue to rise between Turkey and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Carey called the proposal a "lifeline to our NATO ally in the face of warmongers." His words have drawn criticism from Saudi Arabia and Iraq, the latter of which has been a US friend in the region. The government of Turkey, on the other hand, has welcomed the proposal and said "[T]his proposal reaffirms the US and NATO's place as bulwarks against expansionism and militarism."

However, Congress has perhaps been Carey's most important obstacle. Early this afternoon, NNL Senate Majority Leader Ann Cafferty was unequivocal in her opposition to such a package. "While we value our friendship with Turkey, authorizing such a hefty package is not in the Senate's interest." Other NNL senators have been even less diplomatic. Steve Golden (NJ) spoke to the press this morning, saying "Turkey has been initiating these hostilities and is putting the region on a path to war. Adding to their warchest would be a wreckless policy decision and I would not vote for that."

The ALP voiced similar concerns. Senate Minority Leader Mark Pedersen (WA) called any such proposal "a provocation towards a strategic partner in the Middle East... [T]his remains an issue between Turkey and Saudi Arabia." He said. He continued by stating "Turkey has not been attacked nor invaded and as such NATO or America should have no obligation to help arm them."

Public opinion has also tilted against any such involvement. A Pew poll recently found a whopping 76% of Americans think the United States should avoid any involvment in a hypothetical war. A larger 88% believe that a Turkish-Saudi war would not be an imminent threat to the United States. However, a large majority (72%) believe any such conflict would negatively affect oil prices, spelling trouble for consumers at home.

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Marist: Race Stabilizes with Short lead

June 5 - June 9 (1200 RV)

Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 41% (-1)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 46 (=)
Steven DiFalco (presumptive nominee) (CDP) - 11% (+1)

Quinnipiac: Short Maintains Lead

June 7 - June 14 (800 RV)

Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 41% (+2)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 48% (-1)
Steven DiFalco (CDP) - 10%(-1)

NYT/Siena: DiFalco Drops, Short Leads

June 10 - June 15 (1000 RV)

Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 40% (-1)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 44% (+3)
Steven DiFalco (CDP) - 13% (-4)

CNN: Short maintains lead, drops slightly

June 9 - June 14 (1125 RV)

Joanne Hurt (NNL) - 41% (+1)
Veronica Short (ALP) - 47% (-1)
Steven DiFalco (CDP) - 11% (+1)

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Hurt Eyes Campaign Shakeup amid Polling Drop

15 June. New York.

Amid a precipitous drop in polling after the Giftgate scandal, Joanne Hurt is reported to be considering a major campaign shakeup. Since the scandal came to public light, Hurt has seen her lead over Veronica Short evaporate. Initially, her campaign brushed off the gravity of the scandal and maintained the nominee's integrity. However, as criticism mounts, Hurt has reportedly directed her ire towards top staff. There are several people on the chopping block, including campaign manager Ed Williams, campaign chair Alysen MacLean, and advisor Louis Bradley.

The campaign has been advertising positions for senior campaign advisor and deputy campaign advisor which may be positions that will eventually eclipse or even replace Williams, MacLean, and Bradley. Furthermore, some staff have left on their own, including press secretary Carlos Grullon.

Short has seized upon the perceived dysfunction of the campaign. "A stable campaign is a winning campaign. It shows that the candidate makes solid hiring decisions and sticks by them." She said in Peoria, Illinois during a campaign stop. "A revolving door of staff does not look good to voters."

The Hurt campaign has not responded to request for comments.