MD Sen Democratic primary: Who wins?

[wbrocks67]

It's not looking good for Alsobrooks... she's only leading in 2 counties, PG and Prince Charles, and Baltimore City. And PG has a higher % in than the rest of the state. But it's going to be close. She'd have to rely on ED vote breaking for her.

I don't think anyone expected her to be up in the early vote. This is the opposite of it not looking good for her...

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I pray to God Trone loses if only because my friend’s cartoonishly evil stepmother is a big Total Wine fan.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Would rather be Alsobrooks atm. Her lead has increased to +4.1 statewide and the Eday vote is comfortably favoring her. She also just took the lead in Kent, which can only be read as a very good sign for her.

Over on the Republican side, Hogan is only at 64% of the vote… which seems quite weak.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1790555221065626015?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4t...

[Spectator]

I’ve been saying Alsobrooks would win this very easily when all was said and done for the past year or so, and never wavered. Same goes for the general election where she’ll win by something like 55-40 over Hogan. There is no path to victory for him.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Polls are under sampling urban blacks I’m convinced

[Pollster]

Absolutely thrilled for this woman who my family and I have known and loved for years now. Great candidate who ran a great campaign and will be a great presence in the Senate.

[Atlas Force]

Wait wha

https://twitter.com/EricMGarcia/status/1790561616376832128

[CookieDamage]

The fact she's outperforming the polls so much is interesting

[Oryxslayer]

The only downside to Trone's loss is that the race is now going to be sensationalized and overhyped by the DC #politico class cause they have front row seats. Just like what always happens in VA. In the end though it won't end up reflecting their takes cause the self-created bubble barely covers any actual voter opinions, especially those of lower-income minorities - as we just saw tonight.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The only downside to Trone's loss is that the race is now going to be sensationalized and overhyped by the DC #politico class cause they have front row seats. Just like what always happens in VA. In the end though it won't end up reflecting their takes cause the self-created bubble barely covers any actual voter opinions, especially those of lower-income minorities - as we just saw tonight.

After tonight, where Hogan isn't even doing that great in the primary, Alsobrooks may very well end up defying expectations again.

At best Hogan loses by 15, but I imagine it will be by much more than that in November. It'll be a waste of a horserace narrative.

[Atlas Force]

The only downside to Trone's loss is that the race is now going to be sensationalized and overhyped by the DC #politico class cause they have front row seats. Just like what always happens in VA. In the end though it won't end up reflecting their takes cause the self-created bubble barely covers any actual voter opinions, especially those of lower-income minorities - as we just saw tonight.

https://twitter.com/schlagteslinks/status/1790579137436098721
https://twitter.com/schlagteslinks/status/1790579138627268701

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I know this is kind of ridiculous but Alsobrooks winning (and not that far off from my prediction *ahem*) but I feel more confident that Biden will in November and outperform polls in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan atleast.

Moore’s 2022 upset, Biden’s massive over performance in South Carolina in 2020, and now Alsobrooks shows a pattern that pollsters haven’t figured out how to accurately poll in largely black communities.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I know this is kind of ridiculous but Alsobrooks winning (and not that far off from my prediction *ahem*) but I feel more confident that Biden will in November and outperform polls in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan atleast.

Moore’s 2022 upset, Biden’s massive over performance in South Carolina in 2020, and now Alsobrooks shows a pattern that pollsters haven’t figured out how to accurately poll in largely black communities.

People will probably accuse you of "hopium" with this take, but as far as the rust belt trio goes, this might be why Biden seems to be holding up better in Wisconsin rather than the other two in polls even though one would think the Badger state would remain the most right-leaning.

[Yoda]

Maryland gets to avoid criticism because it's not a swing state but I distinctly remeber them counting votes very slowly in 2022, similar to California or Arizona. Will we even know the result tonight if it's close-ish?

You can blame Larry Hogan for that — he vetoed a bill that would have allowed mail-in-ballots to be counted early!

Pisses me off to no end when a Republican pulls s*** like this and still gets a reputation as a "moderate." This is the same thing the hyper partisan far-right Republicans in PA did.

[smoltchanov]

Well, there will be an interesting race in November.....

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Well, there will be an interesting race in November.....

Alsobrooks will defeat Hogan easily.

[smoltchanov]

Well, there will be an interesting race in November.....

Alsobrooks will defeat Hogan easily.

I will believe it when i will see it....

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The last two polls shows a surge it's gonna be a 6 pt Angela Alsobrooks win, Hogan was never gonna win by 18 pts

[Epaminondas]

Going by 538, the polls nailed Trone's share and missed the Alsobrooks result by over 15 points.

RCP aggregation was even worse: Trone +8 to Alsobrooks+12, a 20 point miss.

[JMT]

The fact she's outperforming the polls so much is interesting

Agreed! Before the polls closed, I thought Trone would win, but wouldn’t have been surprised to see a narrow Alsobrooks victory. So while I’m not surprised Alsobrooks won, I am surprised by the margin. It wasn’t particularly close in the end.

[Zenobiyl]

I was way off with this race. Kudos to those who called it before; Alsobrooks’ late-surge strategy worked.

[President Johnson]

Congrats to Senator Alsobrooks. I'm pretty confident she's going to win the general election by around ten points in the end. So there will be two black female senators in the next congress (her and LBR).

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hopefully Hogan can pull of a miracle but not gonna delude myself that its plausible.

I think Alsobrooks wins by 7-8

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hogan hasn't said what he would do with Trump tax cuts that not just gives jobs to regular companies but to oil companies

Which doesn't help him MD different than Gov where he didn't have to deal with tax cuts to Big oil