Politico: Biden admin isn’t fully convinced Ukraine can win, even with new aid

[Ferguson97]

But wait, I was constantly reminded that bringing this up you were a Russian simp. Have the Russians infiltrated the Biden admin now?

The difference is that when the Biden admin brings it up, it's because they're concerned and want the situation to change. When you bring it up, it's because you're happy.

[Hindsight was 2020]

But wait, I was constantly reminded that bringing this up you were a Russian simp. Have the Russians infiltrated the Biden admin now?

The difference is that when the Biden admin brings it up, it's because they're concerned and want the situation to change. When you bring it up, it's because you're happy.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Ukraine won’t win, but it’s not about winning. It’s about sending a message and wearing down the Russians.

[Woody]

But wait, I was constantly reminded that bringing this up you were a Russian simp. Have the Russians infiltrated the Biden admin now?

The difference is that when the Biden admin brings it up, it's because they're concerned and want the situation to change. When you bring it up, it's because you're happy.

I'm not.

[Ferguson97]

But wait, I was constantly reminded that bringing this up you were a Russian simp. Have the Russians infiltrated the Biden admin now?

The difference is that when the Biden admin brings it up, it's because they're concerned and want the situation to change. When you bring it up, it's because you're happy.

I'm not.

Yeah, you are.

[Mr. Smith]

The goal is to make Ukraine Russia's 'Nam.

[President Johnson]

The goal is to make Ukraine Russia's 'Nam.

Pretty much this. For the invaded country, it's enough not to lose, while the invador has to win in order to reach his goals. And Putin so far hasn't moved from his maximal goals, which he is unlikely to achieve.

[jojoju1998]

I'm no.... miltiary expert, but can someone with knowledge in that area, tell us if Russia or Ukraine are winning ?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

But wait, I was constantly reminded that bringing this up you were a Russian simp. Have the Russians infiltrated the Biden admin now?

The difference is that when the Biden admin brings it up, it's because they're concerned and want the situation to change. When you bring it up, it's because you're happy.

So you admit that Woody isn't wrong (and may have been right for months, if not years), you're just upset by what you believe to be his real motives in thinking it? Has Woody ever actually given good reason to think he supports Putin, other than being pessimistic as to Ukraine's long term battlefield odds?

[Crumpets]

I'm no.... miltiary expert, but can someone with knowledge in that area, tell us if Russia or Ukraine are winning ?

I mainly work on Russia-Ukraine issues for my job, so I have a relatively good view of the situation, but I do admit I am biased in favor of Ukraine. Take of that what you will.

Current sitrep, going by the general consensus in DC:
- Russia's initial goals for the war of overthrowing Zelensky and installing a Russia-friendly government in Kyiv are off the table. Russia lost. Ukraine will almost inevitably join both NATO and the EU when all is said and done.
- Russia's scaled-back goals of annexing and controlling Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts (plus Crimea) are still within reach, but only at a very high cost to Russia.
- Both Russia and Ukraine are struggling to maintain the necessary manpower and equipment to keep their various military campaigns going.
- Russia doesn't want to transition to a full wartime economy, and Putin sees doing so as risking significant political blowback, but does still have that option.
- Ukraine more or less has already transitioned to a wartime economy, and is relying on Western support to maintain its military viability for at least a period of a few more years when it might (but not necessarily) be able to build a domestic defense industry to rival Russia's non-wartime defense industry.
- Currently, Russia has the initiative in the war with Ukraine having to respond to Russia's operations, which is good news for Russia, but also an effect of the latest Western support mostly having not arrived yet.
- DC seems pretty confident the new aid package will stop Russia's advances and give Ukraine a chance at some new counter-offensive operations.
- Since the failure of Ukraine's summer offensive last year, Ukraine's strategy has focused less on regaining territory and more on destroying Russia's equipment and manpower and damaging Russia's economy (with things like drone strikes on oil refineries).
- Ukraine has seen some success in this, as evidenced by a sharp drop in Rusdia's oil production and dwindling levels of equipment in storage (i.e. Ukraine is destroying tanks faster than Russia can build new ones, but again, Russia is not operating on a wartime economy).
- But bottom line, this is now a war of political will with Putin thinking he can outlast Western willingness to provide support and Ukraine thinking they can hold the line until either Russia's economy collapses (not off the table, but something that has been predicted many times with only a little to show for it) or Putin faces some sort of serious internal challenge, like we saw last year with the Wagner insurrection.
- Ukraine is also calculating that any resolution to the conflict that does not leave Russia in a worse position to where it was in February 2022 will inevitably be only temporary, since Russia's incentive will be to just rebuild its list tanks, recruit and train new soldiers, and try for Kyiv again knowing what didn't work last time. This calculus might be changed if Ukraine joins NATO, but Ukraine will not be able to join NATO with active combat on its territory.

For what it's worth from my perspective, I think the running assumption in DC is that the war will inevitably last for another year or two and potentially into the 2030s. I was surprised recently hearing from one group of analysts that, even if Russia continues to make territorial gains, it won't be able to support its forces for more than another ~18 months. I've also heard people say it's entirely down to who wins the US election in November. Which is not entirely a campaign pitch on my part, but is mostly just to underscore that, from my perspective, DC is still mostly "in it to win it" for Ukraine and, I think contrary to what sometimes is claimed, would rather Ukraine defeat Russia than degrade Russia in a bloody, hot stalemate.

[Woody]

I'm no.... miltiary expert, but can someone with knowledge in that area, tell us if Russia or Ukraine are winning ?

...Ukraine will almost inevitably join both NATO and the EU when all is said and done...

Stopped reading right here. Reading this sentence reminds me of that one scene in Downfall, when Hitler is consulting with his remaining generals, and he points and commands armies that only exist in his maps.

The excuses people come up with to delude themselves to keep driving up this war is very sad. I would have said funny, but since people are dying because of the consequences of this thought process it's honestly depressing.

[Crumpets]

I'm no.... miltiary expert, but can someone with knowledge in that area, tell us if Russia or Ukraine are winning ?

...Ukraine will almost inevitably join both NATO and the EU when all is said and done...

Stopped reading right here. Reading this sentence reminds me of that one scene in Downfall, when Hitler is consulting with his remaining generals, and he points and commands armies that only exist in his maps.

The excuses people come up with to delude themselves to keep driving up this war is very sad. I would have said funny, but since people are dying because of the consequences of this thought process it's honestly depressing.

Good for you.

[Hindsight was 2020]

But wait, I was constantly reminded that bringing this up you were a Russian simp. Have the Russians infiltrated the Biden admin now?

The difference is that when the Biden admin brings it up, it's because they're concerned and want the situation to change. When you bring it up, it's because you're happy.

So you admit that Woody isn't wrong (and may have been right for months, if not years), you're just upset by what you believe to be his real motives in thinking it? Has Woody ever actually given good reason to think he supports Putin, other than being pessimistic as to Ukraine's long term battlefield odds?

The article if you read it is about how the Pentagon is saying new aid won’t result in Ukraine knocking Russia out of the territory it holds, Woody on multiple occasions (even this year) has said Russia is going to take over the whole of Ukraine. So ya he’s wrong when the article in question he’s trying to say supports him doesn’t at all. Also you seriously are not trying to act like Woody is pro-Russia when even OSR says he is?

[Storr]

I'm no.... miltiary expert, but can someone with knowledge in that area, tell us if Russia or Ukraine are winning ?

...Ukraine will almost inevitably join both NATO and the EU when all is said and done...

Stopped reading right here. Reading this sentence reminds me of that one scene in Downfall, when Hitler is consulting with his remaining generals, and he points and commands armies that only exist in his maps.

The excuses people come up with to delude themselves to keep driving up this war is very sad. I would have said funny, but since people are dying because of the consequences of this thought process it's honestly depressing.

People are dying because of the consequences of the thought process that Russia has the right to control Ukraine.

[Electric Circus]

I'm no.... miltiary expert, but can someone with knowledge in that area, tell us if Russia or Ukraine are winning ?

...Ukraine will almost inevitably join both NATO and the EU when all is said and done...

Stopped reading right here. Reading this sentence reminds me of that one scene in Downfall, when Hitler is consulting with his remaining generals, and he points and commands armies that only exist in his maps.

The excuses people come up with to delude themselves to keep driving up this war is very sad. I would have said funny, but since people are dying because of the consequences of this thought process it's honestly depressing.

Good for you.

He's being very rude about it, but "when all is said and done" is doing a lot of work here. I write this as someone who appreciates your posts on this subject. Frozen conflicts can last for a long time.

Everything that I've read suggests that Ukraine's manpower situation is worse than Russia's, even as both face challenges but in that regard. But Zaluzhnyi's dismissal a few months ago seemed like a particularly bad sign.

[Crumpets]

I'm no.... miltiary expert, but can someone with knowledge in that area, tell us if Russia or Ukraine are winning ?

...Ukraine will almost inevitably join both NATO and the EU when all is said and done...

Stopped reading right here. Reading this sentence reminds me of that one scene in Downfall, when Hitler is consulting with his remaining generals, and he points and commands armies that only exist in his maps.

The excuses people come up with to delude themselves to keep driving up this war is very sad. I would have said funny, but since people are dying because of the consequences of this thought process it's honestly depressing.

Good for you.

He's being very rude about it, but "when all is said and done" is doing a lot of work here. I write this as someone who appreciates your posts on this subject. Frozen conflicts can last for a long time.

Everything that I've read suggests that Ukraine's manpower situation is worse than Russia's, even as both face challenges but in that regard. But Zaluzhnyi's dismissal a few months ago seemed like a particularly bad sign.

That's fair. Let me reword: Ukraine sees three possible paths from here: 1) Victory and joining NATO, 2) Giving up some territory in exchange for explicit guarantees of protection from NATO (whether or not this would mean becoming a full NATO member or something short of it remains to be seen, but I really doubt they'd take any deal that doesn't involve member-level benefits) and 3) Continuing to fight. I believe DC is also operating under a similar assumption of where this will end up and is prepping for the likely eventual integration of Ukraine into NATO, regardless of whether that's two years away or fifteen years away.

Indeed, frozen conflicts can last a long time, but this is not a frozen conflict, and I think Ukraine has learned lessons from frozen conflicts (especially looking at Armenia-Azerbaijan over the last couple years) about relying on them to stay frozen out of a sense of security. NATO doesn't accept members who don't have territorial integrity, and I am very confident Ukraine would prefer losing some legal claims to territory and getting NATO membership than continuing to maintain its claims to its pre-2014 borders and not getting NATO membership.

I am curious if Sir Woodbury has any concrete predictions about how this war will end and on what timeline. Will Russia re-take Kherson City and Zaporizhzhia? Roughly when? Ditto Kyiv, Dnipro, and Kharkiv.

[It’s so Joever]

I'm no.... miltiary expert, but can someone with knowledge in that area, tell us if Russia or Ukraine are winning ?

...Ukraine will almost inevitably join both NATO and the EU when all is said and done...

Stopped reading right here. Reading this sentence reminds me of that one scene in Downfall, when Hitler is consulting with his remaining generals, and he points and commands armies that only exist in his maps.

The excuses people come up with to delude themselves to keep driving up this war is very sad. I would have said funny, but since people are dying because of the consequences of this thought process it's honestly depressing.

It probably won’t be de jure joining NATO but you can bet the US will provide informal security guarantees and arm Kyiv (Yes it’s Kyiv not Kiev, troll) to the teeth when all is said and done. Did you expect the rest of Ukraine to just bend over and prepare for Putin’s next f**king?

[Woody]

I'm no.... miltiary expert, but can someone with knowledge in that area, tell us if Russia or Ukraine are winning ?

...Ukraine will almost inevitably join both NATO and the EU when all is said and done...

Stopped reading right here. Reading this sentence reminds me of that one scene in Downfall, when Hitler is consulting with his remaining generals, and he points and commands armies that only exist in his maps.

The excuses people come up with to delude themselves to keep driving up this war is very sad. I would have said funny, but since people are dying because of the consequences of this thought process it's honestly depressing.

Good for you.

He's being very rude about it, but "when all is said and done" is doing a lot of work here. I write this as someone who appreciates your posts on this subject. Frozen conflicts can last for a long time.

Everything that I've read suggests that Ukraine's manpower situation is worse than Russia's, even as both face challenges but in that regard. But Zaluzhnyi's dismissal a few months ago seemed like a particularly bad sign.

I am curious if Sir Woodbury has any concrete predictions about how this war will end and on what timeline. Will Russia re-take Kherson City and Zaporizhzhia? Roughly when? Ditto Kyiv, Dnipro, and Kharkiv.

Russia will subjugate the entirety of Ukraine, regrettably so, of course. 5 years or less.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I'm no.... miltiary expert, but can someone with knowledge in that area, tell us if Russia or Ukraine are winning ?

...Ukraine will almost inevitably join both NATO and the EU when all is said and done...

Stopped reading right here. Reading this sentence reminds me of that one scene in Downfall, when Hitler is consulting with his remaining generals, and he points and commands armies that only exist in his maps.

The excuses people come up with to delude themselves to keep driving up this war is very sad. I would have said funny, but since people are dying because of the consequences of this thought process it's honestly depressing.

It probably won’t be de jure joining NATO but you can bet the US will provide informal security guarantees and arm Kyiv (Yes it’s Kyiv not Kiev, troll) to the teeth when all is said and done. Did you expect the rest of Ukraine to just bend over and prepare for Putin’s next f**king?

Why?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I'm no.... miltiary expert, but can someone with knowledge in that area, tell us if Russia or Ukraine are winning ?

...Ukraine will almost inevitably join both NATO and the EU when all is said and done...

Stopped reading right here. Reading this sentence reminds me of that one scene in Downfall, when Hitler is consulting with his remaining generals, and he points and commands armies that only exist in his maps.

The excuses people come up with to delude themselves to keep driving up this war is very sad. I would have said funny, but since people are dying because of the consequences of this thought process it's honestly depressing.

It probably won’t be de jure joining NATO but you can bet the US will provide informal security guarantees and arm Kyiv (Yes it’s Kyiv not Kiev, troll) to the teeth when all is said and done. Did you expect the rest of Ukraine to just bend over and prepare for Putin’s next f**king?

Why?

Because one is the Ukrainian pronounciation/spelling, and the other is the imperial Russian version.

It's Istanbul, not Constantinople...

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I'm no.... miltiary expert, but can someone with knowledge in that area, tell us if Russia or Ukraine are winning ?

...Ukraine will almost inevitably join both NATO and the EU when all is said and done...

Stopped reading right here. Reading this sentence reminds me of that one scene in Downfall, when Hitler is consulting with his remaining generals, and he points and commands armies that only exist in his maps.

The excuses people come up with to delude themselves to keep driving up this war is very sad. I would have said funny, but since people are dying because of the consequences of this thought process it's honestly depressing.

It probably won’t be de jure joining NATO but you can bet the US will provide informal security guarantees and arm Kyiv (Yes it’s Kyiv not Kiev, troll) to the teeth when all is said and done. Did you expect the rest of Ukraine to just bend over and prepare for Putin’s next f**king?

Why?

Because one is the Ukrainian pronounciation/spelling, and the other is the imperial Russian version.

It's Istanbul, not Constantinople...

Because it's the most used term for the city in the area, or because it's what the government says?

[It’s so Joever]

I'm no.... miltiary expert, but can someone with knowledge in that area, tell us if Russia or Ukraine are winning ?

...Ukraine will almost inevitably join both NATO and the EU when all is said and done...

Stopped reading right here. Reading this sentence reminds me of that one scene in Downfall, when Hitler is consulting with his remaining generals, and he points and commands armies that only exist in his maps.

The excuses people come up with to delude themselves to keep driving up this war is very sad. I would have said funny, but since people are dying because of the consequences of this thought process it's honestly depressing.

It probably won’t be de jure joining NATO but you can bet the US will provide informal security guarantees and arm Kyiv (Yes it’s Kyiv not Kiev, troll) to the teeth when all is said and done. Did you expect the rest of Ukraine to just bend over and prepare for Putin’s next f**king?

Why?

Are you asking this out of genuine curiosity or out of SirWoodbury level Putin concern trolling? Not sure because if it’s the former, see the response above and if it’s the latter, pound sand m***erf***er

[It’s so Joever]

I'm no.... miltiary expert, but can someone with knowledge in that area, tell us if Russia or Ukraine are winning ?

...Ukraine will almost inevitably join both NATO and the EU when all is said and done...

Stopped reading right here. Reading this sentence reminds me of that one scene in Downfall, when Hitler is consulting with his remaining generals, and he points and commands armies that only exist in his maps.

The excuses people come up with to delude themselves to keep driving up this war is very sad. I would have said funny, but since people are dying because of the consequences of this thought process it's honestly depressing.

It probably won’t be de jure joining NATO but you can bet the US will provide informal security guarantees and arm Kyiv (Yes it’s Kyiv not Kiev, troll) to the teeth when all is said and done. Did you expect the rest of Ukraine to just bend over and prepare for Putin’s next f**king?

Why?

Because one is the Ukrainian pronounciation/spelling, and the other is the imperial Russian version.

It's Istanbul, not Constantinople...

Because it's the most used term for the city in the area, or because it's what the government says?

Kyiv is what the city is called in Ukrainian, which is the most used language in the Kyiv area actually (almost certainly more so postwar, but even pre war)

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I'm no.... miltiary expert, but can someone with knowledge in that area, tell us if Russia or Ukraine are winning ?

...Ukraine will almost inevitably join both NATO and the EU when all is said and done...

Stopped reading right here. Reading this sentence reminds me of that one scene in Downfall, when Hitler is consulting with his remaining generals, and he points and commands armies that only exist in his maps.

The excuses people come up with to delude themselves to keep driving up this war is very sad. I would have said funny, but since people are dying because of the consequences of this thought process it's honestly depressing.

It probably won’t be de jure joining NATO but you can bet the US will provide informal security guarantees and arm Kyiv (Yes it’s Kyiv not Kiev, troll) to the teeth when all is said and done. Did you expect the rest of Ukraine to just bend over and prepare for Putin’s next f**king?

Why?

Because one is the Ukrainian pronounciation/spelling, and the other is the imperial Russian version.

It's Istanbul, not Constantinople...

Because it's the most used term for the city in the area, or because it's what the government says?

Kyiv is what the city is called in Ukrainian, which is the most used language in the Kyiv area actually (almost certainly more so postwar, but even pre war)

I am aware! But this is confusing to me (and perhaps this is the wrong thread for this discussion) because this seems inconsistently applied. For example, Acre in Israel is called Akko by both Jews and Arabs, but in the West we call it Acre. This is mostly for historical reasons: Acre was the traditional Western name -- but so was Kiev. Given that, should we call Acre Akko as you now do Kiev Kyiv?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I'm no.... miltiary expert, but can someone with knowledge in that area, tell us if Russia or Ukraine are winning ?

...Ukraine will almost inevitably join both NATO and the EU when all is said and done...

Stopped reading right here. Reading this sentence reminds me of that one scene in Downfall, when Hitler is consulting with his remaining generals, and he points and commands armies that only exist in his maps.

The excuses people come up with to delude themselves to keep driving up this war is very sad. I would have said funny, but since people are dying because of the consequences of this thought process it's honestly depressing.

It probably won’t be de jure joining NATO but you can bet the US will provide informal security guarantees and arm Kyiv (Yes it’s Kyiv not Kiev, troll) to the teeth when all is said and done. Did you expect the rest of Ukraine to just bend over and prepare for Putin’s next f**king?

Why?

Are you asking this out of genuine curiosity or out of SirWoodbury level Putin concern trolling? Not sure because if it’s the former, see the response above and if it’s the latter, pound sand m***erf***er

Curiosity, although I must admit that the tone of the latter response rather inclines me towards a skepticism of what you advocate for.