What will the margin be in MD-SEN?

[Tekken_Guy]

What will the margin be in the Maryland senate race?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Throne or Alsobrooks by 3, I do t buy these Hogan plus 10 polls just as likely Hogan wins by 10 as Trump wins by 51/46 in NV and MI nonexistent

As I said before we have to wait for the vote, polls aren't the end all be all

[wnwnwn]

The democrat by 18%.
I don't think RNC will invest in Hogan.
Also, its 2024 not 1984.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Democrat wins by over twenty points.

It will be a relatively good showing for Hogan, but it still won't be enough.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hogan by 3

[ClassicElectionEnthusiast]

I'm going with 10%-15%. Larry Hogan will probably have a good showing for a Maryland Republican but it won't be enough to flip this seat.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

For the record a Republican hasn’t gotten above 40% in a senate election since 2006.

[Roll Roons]

For the record a Republican hasn’t gotten above 40% in a senate election since 2006.

Not coincidentally, that was also the last time Republicans seriously contested a senate race in MD.

[Schiff for Senate]

I voted 10-15%, though the more I think about it, 15-20% makes more sense. It's definitely much likelier that Hogan loses by more than 20 than it is for him to come within single digits.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The democrats by 8. It will be similar to the 2018 TN race in reverse but Hogan being governor much more recently makes him come 2-3 points closer than Bredesen

[MarkD]

Hogan by about 6 percentage points (in other words, half of his margin in 2018 gubernatorial election).

[ProgressiveModerate]

I just want to point out the last time we saw a Senate overperformance as big as Hogan would need to win was Manchin 2012. I think people forget just how blue federally Maryland is these days; it's basically as blue as states like Idaho, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and North Dakota are red.

My guess is D+20. I really don't see Hogan doing enough work to detach himself from the toxic elements of the Republican brand.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I just want to point out the last time we saw a Senate overperformance as big as Hogan would need to win was Manchin 2012. I think people forget just how blue federally Maryland is these days; it's basically as blue as states like Idaho, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and North Dakota are red.

My guess is D+20. I really don't see Hogan doing enough work to detach himself from the toxic elements of the Republican brand.

And with a more educated than average Democratic populace, even if they had good-will towards Hogan as Governor, they are more likely to discern the difference between electing a Republican as a number in the Senate versus a Governor who would be forced to work with a Democratic legislature.

[President Johnson]

High single digits. I'd say Alsobrooks or Throne win 54-45%.

[Mexican Wolf]

Somewhere around D+17% to 19%, still a strong performance by Hogan, but I think Maryland's going to be way too blue in a presidential year for him to overcome the state's lean federally.

[Atlas Force]

I think Hogan breaking 40% sounds fair, especially since national Dems probably won’t (and shouldn’t) invest here despite the hype.

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1780432414961000827

[Roll Roons]

It's also possible that they expect Trone to win the primary and keep self-funding.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Forget Powell she is done

[Arizona Iced Tea]

D+11

[Sir Mohamed]

Around D+11

I think this is a close analogy to TN-2018 and MT-2020.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Dem +10-15

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Around D+11

I think this is a close analogy to TN-2018 and MT-2020.

Feels more like HI-2012 to me.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

D+11

[coloradocowboi]

D+5 or so. Hogan is going to put up a much better fight that Bredesen or Bullock.

[Spectator]

I think Hogan breaking 40% sounds fair, especially since national Dems probably won’t (and shouldn’t) invest here despite the hype.

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1780432414961000827

They shouldn’t spend a dime on Florida. Scott and Trump will win by double digits, no matter what the national picture looks like. Better to be safe than sorry and shore up Maryland (I agree it is or will be Safe D) and Texas.