MD Sen - UBalitmore - Hogan +13 against Trone/+18 against Alsobrooks

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/MikenzieFrost/status/1780180110387134742?t=5DaSCmyLhULkq1iNH...

[Roll Roons]

I wanted to believe and I think I’m starting to.

[2016]

I wanted to believe and I think I’m starting to.

That Poll looks quite similar to the Washington Post Poll from a few weeks ago! If I were DSCC Chair Gary Peters I would start getting a little bit nervous.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

It was a mistake not to ask Cardin to camp in this seat till he keeled over.

[Sir Mohamed]

While I'm still confident this will just end up just as Lingle or Bredesen, I'm starting to get at least semi-concerned. If polls still see Hogan ahead outside MoE into September, I'd be nervous.

[Senator Incitatus]

While I'm still confident this will just end up just as Lingle or Bredesen, I'm starting to get at least semi-concerned. If polls still see Hogan ahead outside MoE into September, I'd be nervous.

I’m guessing it will narrow quite a bit after the primary, but this was never going to be a Lingle (weak popularity) or Bredesen (mostly forgotten). The best comparison is still Weld ‘96, who was still in office but, unlike Hogan, faced an incumbent.

[Redban]

Hogan is runnin’ wild brother

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hogan is runnin’ wild brother

You really believe in polls not votes it's still 7 months till EDAY

[Sir Mohamed]

While I'm still confident this will just end up just as Lingle or Bredesen, I'm starting to get at least semi-concerned. If polls still see Hogan ahead outside MoE into September, I'd be nervous.

I’m guessing it will narrow quite a bit after the primary, but this was never going to be a Lingle (weak popularity) or Bredesen (mostly forgotten). The best comparison is still Weld ‘96, who was still in office but, unlike Hogan, faced an incumbent.

Well, a similar result like 52-46% would be very possible.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Atlas users are really setting themselves up to get burned again lol. I’d be very shocked if he still held the lead by the end of summer.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't believe this silly poll

[kwabbit]

Atlas users are really setting themselves up to get burned again lol. I’d be very shocked if he still held the lead by the end of summer.

End of summer he could definitely still have the lead. Not that many more people are engaged in the summer than the spring of an election year. If you look at TN-Sen 2018, Bredesen didn’t lose any ground until mid-September.

Hogan’s strength isn’t a mirage. He is really this popular. The majority of MD voters prefer him personally over Trone or Alsobrooks and it’s probably going to stay that way through the election. Once Dems crank up the rhetoric on the issues and party loyalty in the fall they’ll pull ahead, but the race must be framed as D vs. R and not Trone vs. Hogan.

[S019]

The bad thing for Alsobrooks is being under 40%. That’s a really poor mark in a state where Democrats breaking 60% is considered a weak performance. Partisanship will likely bail her out, but I think it’s fair now to call this Likely D and not Safe D. The longer the Hogan keeps these types of leads though, the more that this looks less like a slam dunk.

[UncleSam]

I actually think this is Lean D, unironically, if Alsobrooks wins the primary.

Trone makes this Likely D, I’d still argue closer to Safe than Lean.

Either way it is weird how these polls are all over the place. I expect once people get engaged in September / October Hogan’s popularity will plummet and partisanship will start to set in.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They just polled this race and another poll has it Hogan +3 the polls keep lying again

[President Johnson]

I still don't see this being in play. Hagan's lead will evoporate after the summer as people begin to realize senate control is at stake here. I'm also not sure from which parts of the state he would actually get the numbers. His gubernatorial victories aren't transferable to the senate level.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I still don't see this being in play. Hagan's lead will evoporate after the summer as people begin to realize senate control is at stake here. I'm also not sure from which parts of the state he would actually get the numbers. His gubernatorial victories aren't transferable to the senate level.

I think Likely D is a fair rating for this race . In the vast majority of cases Hogan will lose but there is a path for him if either 2024 ends up being a red wave year of it the democratic candidate self destructs.

I’d say 2018 TN is a fair comparison as there was a path for Bredesen to win if Blackburn self destructed or if 2018 ended up being a blue wave outside the house level as well .

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

I am sticking with likely D for now. However if Hogan is still polling like this after Labor day, I think we will have to adjust.

TN 2018 is still probably the best comparison but we might end up comparing this to WV-2010.

It should be noted that Hogan is leading more than Bresden ever did

[Progressive Pessimist]

*Yawn* Hogan isn't winning. His only benefit is name tecognition right now.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The best comparison here is Evan Bayh vs. Todd Young in 2016

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trash it or throw it in the average DNC internal had Hogan tied or leading by 6 there is no way Hogan wins by 18