All you "How would XYZ person vote" threads are answered

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Build-a-voter from the Economist

How would a 37 year old black college educated morman man living in Tempe vote? Biden
What about an 80 year old protestant latino woman living in Macon with a post doc? Tossup
Maybe a 61 year old white buddhist man living in Nashville with a high school education? Trump

There's even a british version!

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

After playing around with the UK version the tories are so dead lol

A white man aged 65-74 from the East Midlands, who owns a home in a rural area, is retired and was educated to A-level has a:

🔵 37% chance of voting Conservative
🔴 30% Labour
🟠 14% Lib Dem

[Kamala's side hoe]

In light of 2024-PRES polls for Texas and general Leipverse discourse on Muslim American voters, I decided to play around with 25-34 year old Muslim college-only suburban straight men in Texas of various racial ancestries.

White (Non-Latino): 61-39 Biden to 57-43 Biden (R+8 shift)
White Latino: 59-41 Biden to 57-43 Biden (R+4 shift)
Non-White Latino: 53-47 Trump to 65-35 Biden (D+36 shift)
Black: 95-5 Biden to 91-9 Biden (R+8 shift)
Asian: 74-26 Biden to 66-34 Biden (R+16 shift)
Other Race: 64-36 Biden to 57-43 Biden (R+14 shift)


Let's see what happens if we keep everything constant aside from religion.

25-34 year old Asian college-only suburban straight men in Nevada-
Agnostic: 80-20 B to 79-21 B (R+2 shift)
Atheist: 91-9 B to 89-11 B (R+2 shift)
Buddhist: 78-22 B to 72-28 B (R+12 shift)
Catholic/Orthodox (Christian): 55-45 B to 53-47 B (R+4 shift)
Evangelical (Christian): 57-43 T to 65-35 T (R+16 shift)
Hindu: 78-22 B to 72-28 B (R+12 shift)
Jewish: 70-30 B to 66-34 B (R+8 shift)
Mormon (Christian): 71-29 T to 58-42 T (D+26 shift)
Muslim: 78-22 B to 72-28 B (R+12 shift)
Other: 70-30 B to 66-34 B (R+8 shift)
Protestant (Christian): 58-42 B to 57-43 B (R+2 shift)

25-34 year old Asian college-only suburban straight men in California-
Agnostic: 86-14 B to 83-17 B (R+6 shift)
Atheist: 94-6 B to 91-9 B (R+6 shift)
Buddhist: 84-16 B to 77-23 B (R+14 shift)
Catholic/Orthodox (Christian): 65-35 B to 59-41 B (R+12 shift)
Evangelical (Christian): 53-47 B to 60-40 T (R+26 shift)
Hindu: 84-16 B to 77-23 B (R+14 shift)
Jewish: 78-22 B to 71-29 B (R+14 shift)
Mormon (Christian): 61-39 T to 52-48 T (D+18 shift)
Muslim: 84-16 B to 77-23 B (R+14 shift)
Other: 78-22 B to 71-29 B (R+14 shift)
Protestant (Christian): 68-32 B to 62-38 B (R+2 shift)


From this very surface level crosstab analysis, it seems like the model assumes voters of Non-Christian, Non-Jewish faiths will vote similarly to each other and will swing uniformly. I'm too lazy to check, but I'm guessing this uniform R swing probably isn't adjusted for age bracket. We also see a large assumed D swing among Mormons of all racial backgrounds, and probably a large assumed R swing among POC evangelicals in general (I see no reason why this would be limited to those who are college-educated Asian men born in the 90s).

The model also seems to think that the alleged R swing among Muslim voters (at least in Texas) will be strongest among racial crosstabs that have grown the fastest in recent years due to accelerating immigration from developing countries.