Why Biden will win Wisconsin

[Nyvin]

2016 and 2020 had near identical percentages around the state in the presidential race (maybe not Dane so much), it's just the amount of turnout increased from 2016 to 2020.  

I think this is mostly because both races had Trump and this year's election will also have Trump.   People in Wisconsin already know how they feel about Trump now, so there won't be any massive swing like from 2012 to 2016.  The rural counties aren't going to jump 10 points to the right or anything, just like they didn't in 2020.

Vernon County is a good example of this, in 2012 Obama won Vernon by almost 15%, in 2016 Trump won it by about 5%, in 2020 he won it by about 4.5%.   Evers actually won it by 1.5% in 2022 if that matters.

The bottom line is it's just not realistic to see massive rural swings again with the same person at the top of the ballot.  It really would need a new candidate with a new agenda or something for that to happen.

[pbrower2a]

Trump is the city-slicker that nobody really likes. 

[DS0816]

Obviously Wisconsin will be very close, but I think that Biden will ultimately win Wisconsin. There are several factors involved in this. I am listing them in no particular order.

…

Thoughts?

The above was the outcome in 2020 Wisconsin.

Raw-vote margin was D+20,682.

Wisconsin, one of the three top bellwether states (the other two are Pennsylvania and Michigan), was a 2020 Democratic pickup along with a 2020 Democratic pickup for U.S. President for Joe Biden.

With 2024 Democratic incumbent Biden struggling for 40 percent in job approval, I predict a 2024 Republican pickup for U.S. President for Donald Trump who, among his other applicable states, will also win a 2024 Republican pickup of Wisconsin.

That raw-vote margin of +20,682 is not insurmountable. Take 10,342 votes out of the 2020-to-2024 Democratic and into the 2020-to-2024 Republican column … and there you have a flipped state.

I look to diminished Democratic margin in counties such as Milwaukee and Dane. I look to solidified Republican margin in the counties Kenosha and Winnebago. I look to 2020 Democratic-to-2024 Republican pickups in counties such as Door and Sauk. I also consider a potential Republican pickup in the county Portage.

[walleye26]

Obviously Wisconsin will be very close, but I think that Biden will ultimately win Wisconsin. There are several factors involved in this. I am listing them in no particular order.

…

Thoughts?

The above was the outcome in 2020 Wisconsin.

Raw-vote margin was D+20,682.

Wisconsin, one of the three top bellwether states (the other two are Pennsylvania and Michigan), was a 2020 Democratic pickup along with a 2020 Democratic pickup for U.S. President for Joe Biden.

With 2024 Democratic incumbent Biden struggling for 40 percent in job approval, I predict a 2024 Republican pickup for U.S. President for Donald Trump who, among his other applicable states, will also win a 2024 Republican pickup of Wisconsin.

That raw-vote margin of +20,682 is not insurmountable. Take 10,342 votes out of the 2020-to-2024 Democratic and into the 2020-to-2024 Republican column … and there you have a flipped state.

I look to diminished Democratic margin in counties such as Milwaukee and Dane. I look to solidified Republican margin in the counties Kenosha and Winnebago. I look to 2020 Democratic-to-2024 Republican pickups in counties such as Door and Sauk. I also consider a potential Republican pickup in the county Portage.

If Trump wins, it won’t be by flipping Sauk and Portage, it’ll be due to lower turnout in Milwaukee. I highly doubt Trump flips Portage County, since UW-SP is there. It’s usually close, but it hasn’t voted GOP in quite some time, and Stevens Point and Plover are both growing and pretty young. Sauk is seeing a large influx of people from Madison, which tend to be bluer; places like Baraboo and Sauk City are building a LOT of homes right now. I don’t think Sauk is completely off the map, but I would be skeptical.

[Mr. Smith]

Milwaukee will have to hold through and bleed into WOW.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Milwaukee will have to hold through and bleed into WOW.

Baldwin is gonna help Biden carry WI

[wnwnwn]

I think NW Wisconsin will trend right.  Not that the three Iron Range counties will swing to Trump, but Trump's Martin in the 7th district will likely increase.

[DS0816]

…

If Trump wins, it won’t be by flipping Sauk and Portage, it’ll be due to lower turnout in Milwaukee.

Milwaukee and Dane Counties, with reduced 2020-to-2024 Democratic margins, would be big contributors to the bellwether state of Wisconsin flipping from 2020 Democratic to 2024 Republican.

I anticipate and expect that will happen in states’s most-populous cities and counties. Especially counties.

That is a part of how Election 2024 will result in a party switch for U.S. President.

I highly doubt Trump flips Portage County…

Given Wisconsin—along with Pennsylvania and Michigan—has established the longest streak of carrying for presidential election winners (all four consecutive cycles of 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020), I looked at Portage County’s results. It is trending away from the Democrats. Compared to the Democratic Party’s statewide performance, it has gone from +14 to +7 to +4 to +2 percentage points. I did not necessarily write that I predict it will flip. It is a county to watch.

Sauk [County] is seeing a large influx of people from Madison, which tend to be bluer; places like Baraboo and Sauk City are building a LOT of homes right now. I don’t think Sauk is completely off the map, but I would be skeptical.

That bolded remark is not persuasive.

Door and Sauk counties voted for the statewide winners in both 2016 and 2020—Republican followed by Democratic pickups for the presidency and the state of Wisconsin—with percentage-point margins which were closely connected to the state’s outcomes.

Results:

◾️ ELECTION 2016 ◾️
🔴 Wisconsin: Trump +0.76 (Republican pickup)
🔴 Door County: Trump +3.22 (Republican pickup)
🔴 Sauk County: Trump +0.35 (Republican pickup)

◾️ ELECTION 2020 ◾️
🔵 Wisconsin: Biden +0.63 (Democratic pickup)
🔵 Door County: Biden +1.45 (Democratic pickup)
🔵 Sauk County: Biden +1.70 (Democratic pickup)

[Scottholes 2.0]

Your analysis is very detailed and sensible. Thanks for posting this!