2025 Canadian election - April 28

[brucejoel99]

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:y3xrmnwvkvsq4tqcsgwch4na/post/3lksfms7uq225

Prime Minister Mark Carney is poised to call a snap federal election Sunday for an expected vote on April 28, two sources say, kicking off a campaign that is almost certain to focus on U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war and his talk of making Canada the 51st state.

The Liberals, Conservatives and NDP already have booked campaign planes and buses, and their war rooms are set up in the expectation of the Sunday election call.

The Liberal Party has also recruited a number of high-profile candidates, including former Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson and former CTV television host Evan Solomon, the two sources said. One of the sources said former Quebec finance minister Carlos Leitão will also run for the Liberals.

A final call on the April 28 vote will be made by Mr. Carney, the sources said.

[brucejoel99]

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:zx22gibu7dgptgazrbteulkl/post/3lkrsan4qyk2z

[Sir Mohamed]

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:y3xrmnwvkvsq4tqcsgwch4na/post/3lksfms7uq225

Prime Minister Mark Carney is poised to call a snap federal election Sunday for an expected vote on April 28, two sources say, kicking off a campaign that is almost certain to focus on U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war and his talk of making Canada the 51st state.

The Liberals, Conservatives and NDP already have booked campaign planes and buses, and their war rooms are set up in the expectation of the Sunday election call.

The Liberal Party has also recruited a number of high-profile candidates, including former Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson and former CTV television host Evan Solomon, the two sources said. One of the sources said former Quebec finance minister Carlos Leitão will also run for the Liberals.

A final call on the April 28 vote will be made by Mr. Carney, the sources said.

Going for an early election seems like a high-risk, high-reward strategy.

[brucejoel99]

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:y3xrmnwvkvsq4tqcsgwch4na/post/3lksfms7uq225

Prime Minister Mark Carney is poised to call a snap federal election Sunday for an expected vote on April 28, two sources say, kicking off a campaign that is almost certain to focus on U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war and his talk of making Canada the 51st state.

The Liberals, Conservatives and NDP already have booked campaign planes and buses, and their war rooms are set up in the expectation of the Sunday election call.

The Liberal Party has also recruited a number of high-profile candidates, including former Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson and former CTV television host Evan Solomon, the two sources said. One of the sources said former Quebec finance minister Carlos Leitão will also run for the Liberals.

A final call on the April 28 vote will be made by Mr. Carney, the sources said.

Going for an early election seems like a high-risk, high-reward strategy.

Here we go!

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:ho4h4vhrwpohqtgd7ovjx6zo/post/3lkssooxdlk2b

[Can't Back Down When Punched!]

I’m a little more well versed with UK than Canadian…. I know it’s custom the party with the most seats forms government - coalition ideas be damned. But someone tell me why if CPC wins a plurality the government can’t just be brought down almost immediately by the remaining parties? (Unless the BLOQ sides with CPC)

Also - it’s wild to me the vote efficiency - I read CPC needs an 8-10 point margin to win a majority.

Technically, the incumbent always gets the first chance to go to the Governor General and ask to form government, regardless of who won more seats or commands the confidence of the house. By precedent though, the party with the largest number of seats gets to go first, regardless of incumbency. If I'm not mistaken, it's been nearly 100 years since the second place federal party tried to form government. But constitutionally, Carney still has the right to ask to form govt first and test the confidence of the house. If he doesn't command confidence of the house, then PP gets a shot, and if he doesn't either then election 2.0 time baby.

As far as vote efficiency, that's true - provided that the partisan coalitions don't shift. CPC always has an inbuilt disadvantage because of their large number of ultra-safe seats in the rural prairies, but there are signs of a demographic shift too. A clear one in terms of age (young going CPC and old going LPC, opposite of 2021) and while there's less data on this, there are signs that we might see a race/immigration status depolarization, which could result in some unusual shifts in the GTA and other big cities (especially their suburbs). So there's a possibility that the respective coalitions look different than it has in recent years, and depending on how it breaks down the CPC vote efficiency might not be quite as bad as it's been in recent years. But Liberals still have the more efficient coalition, because they don't waste quite as many votes on safe seats.

[Can't Back Down When Punched!]

It's very unusual for first ministers to exercise that right if they don't think they can win the throne speech. Christy Clark tried it in 2017, but she was voted down by the NDP+Green majority and the NDP formed government with Green support despite winning fewer seats. I can also think of Frank Miller's PCs in Ontario, after losing their majority in 1985, Miller held a confidence vote but the Liberals had already secured NDP support, the vote failed and Libs formed government with NDP support.

Although in both these cases, the incumbent party actually won more seats, just not a majority. I don't think Carney has anything to worry about if he wins a minority let alone majority, but if it's a CPC minority, things could get interesting depending on how big the minority is and what exactly the Bloc wants.

[Can't Back Down When Punched!]

Everytime a bad CPC poll drops, people start talking about Ford...

I'll just say this as an Ontarian who generally likes Doug Ford. He's a massive risk, might be worth taking a risk if the Liberals win a majority after everything, but still, let's take off the rose-tinted glasses for the guy for a minute here. He's a good choice if Carney turns out to be an unpopular and/or ineffective PM. This is the Kathleen Wynne scenario, where a new leader temporarily rescues an unpopular Liberal government, but after the election she's left with the rotting carcass of a government and things get so bad that someone just has to put them out of their misery. In that scenario, yeah, Ford's the guy who will run you a winning campaign.

But if Carney turns out to be a popular Prime Minister, putting a guy like Doug against him is a nightmare scenario for Conservatives that quite possibly results in a worse performance than Scheer and O'Toole.

[brucejoel99]

Everytime a bad CPC poll drops, people start talking about Ford...

I'll just say this as an Ontarian who generally likes Doug Ford. He's a massive risk, might be worth taking a risk if the Liberals win a majority after everything, but still, let's take off the rose-tinted glasses for the guy for a minute here. He's a good choice if Carney turns out to be an unpopular and/or ineffective PM. This is the Kathleen Wynne scenario, where a new leader temporarily rescues an unpopular Liberal government, but after the election she's left with the rotting carcass of a government and things get so bad that someone just has to put them out of their misery. In that scenario, yeah, Ford's the guy who will run you a winning campaign.

But if Carney turns out to be a popular Prime Minister, putting a guy like Doug against him is a nightmare scenario for Conservatives that quite possibly results in a worse performance than Scheer and O'Toole.

I'm just here stuck laughing my ass off that Jenni Byrne wouldn't know what karma is even if Doug Ford hit her in the face with it:

https://twitter.com/pjforto/status/1902782403963158865
lol, lmao:

https://twitter.com/jj_mccullough/status/1902777026676969938

[Can't Back Down When Punched!]

https://twitter.com/pjforto/status/1902782403963158865

Minor nitpick here: Ford was shoved away into a locker for 2019 (erroneously, in my view), but not in 2021. PCs were comfortably out polling CPC in Ontario by 2021, Ford himself declined to endorse or let his people help out the CPC campaign. Partly to get back at Scheer snubbing him, partly not wanting to mess up a good thing he had with Trudeau.

[DL]

This speculation about Ford ever being federal Tory leader falls apart when you consider that Ford speaks no French whatsoever. He doesn't just speak lousy French with a heavy accent - he speaks ZERO French. That is an immediate disqualification from leading a federal party.

[Whale Psychiatrist]

This speculation about Ford ever being federal Tory leader falls apart when you consider that Ford speaks no French whatsoever. He doesn't just speak lousy French with a heavy accent - he speaks ZERO French. That is an immediate disqualification from leading a federal party.

I came here to say that if Ford ever starts taking French lessons, then you'll know something is up

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

In addition to Edmonton mayor Amarjeet Sohi running for the Liberals, at a minimum both former high profile journalist Evan Soloman and possibly former Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson will run for the Liberals. Gregor Robertson was also an NDP MLA from 2005-2008. Although he did not end up all that popular as mayor of Vancouver, he is still the longest serving Vancouver mayor serving for a full decade from 2008-2018.

[VPH]

Former Quebec Finance Minister Carlos Leitão is running in Marc-Aurèle-Fortin for the LPC. Should be a Liberal hold.

[brucejoel99]

This speculation about Ford ever being federal Tory leader falls apart when you consider that Ford speaks no French whatsoever. He doesn't just speak lousy French with a heavy accent - he speaks ZERO French. That is an immediate disqualification from leading a federal party.

I came here to say that if Ford ever starts taking French lessons, then you'll know something is up

Hasn't he already taken French lessons on-&-off since becoming Premier & claimed to stop only for ~a year-&-a-1/2 after the onset of the pandemic before getting back at it? IIRC, the fact that he takes French lessons on taxpayers' dime was a 1st-term attack against him. (Never mind that the CPC obviously isn't as reliant as the Grits on winning in Quebec to form government, & that demonstrating just a Harperesque good-faith effort at French to endear themselves to gettable francophone voters is likely good enough in a way that it just wouldn't be for Liberal leadership wannabes, as Christy Clark recently learned.)

[The '90s' Last Champion]

Everytime a bad CPC poll drops, people start talking about Ford...

I'll just say this as an Ontarian who generally likes Doug Ford. He's a massive risk, might be worth taking a risk if the Liberals win a majority after everything, but still, let's take off the rose-tinted glasses for the guy for a minute here. He's a good choice if Carney turns out to be an unpopular and/or ineffective PM. This is the Kathleen Wynne scenario, where a new leader temporarily rescues an unpopular Liberal government, but after the election she's left with the rotting carcass of a government and things get so bad that someone just has to put them out of their misery. In that scenario, yeah, Ford's the guy who will run you a winning campaign.

But if Carney turns out to be a popular Prime Minister, putting a guy like Doug against him is a nightmare scenario for Conservatives that quite possibly results in a worse performance than Scheer and O'Toole.

who do u support vs who u think wins if tge tories lose

Who wins, no clue. Way too many moving parts at this point.

Who do I prefer? I'm biased on this but I think the western/libertarian wing needs some time in the penalty box if Pierre screws it up. Ford is the unofficial leader of the Ontario/maritime style Tories, but that doesn't mean it has to be him, I like the guy but I don't think he's *that* guy. If it's a Ford cabinet minister, Caroline Mulroney has her name written all over it. Lecce could be another dark horse.

But for now I'll say Tim Houston. Executive experience, relatively young and handsome guy, upset the Liberals in 2021 and upgraded to a massive majority in 2025, very high approvals unlike Ford, more of a moderate than Ford yet less controversial with the base, taking the lead on removing interprovincial barriers, etc. Idk much else about him but from what I've seen, why not Tim?

I am quite skeptical that Houston would win the Conservative leadership. He runs to the left of the provincial Liberals, branded himself as a Red Tory, and is probably the closest thing to an actual Red Tory today (no not the new stupid definition where it means a "socially liberal CPC member," but in the sense of an old school PC type). A scenario where he wins the leadership seems like the perfect scenario for the Liberals to try to outflank the Tories, and I don't think I need to explain why that would be disastrous for the CPC.

[Long Live The King!]

Everytime a bad CPC poll drops, people start talking about Ford...

I'll just say this as an Ontarian who generally likes Doug Ford. He's a massive risk, might be worth taking a risk if the Liberals win a majority after everything, but still, let's take off the rose-tinted glasses for the guy for a minute here. He's a good choice if Carney turns out to be an unpopular and/or ineffective PM. This is the Kathleen Wynne scenario, where a new leader temporarily rescues an unpopular Liberal government, but after the election she's left with the rotting carcass of a government and things get so bad that someone just has to put them out of their misery. In that scenario, yeah, Ford's the guy who will run you a winning campaign.

But if Carney turns out to be a popular Prime Minister, putting a guy like Doug against him is a nightmare scenario for Conservatives that quite possibly results in a worse performance than Scheer and O'Toole.

who do u support vs who u think wins if tge tories lose

Who wins, no clue. Way too many moving parts at this point.

Who do I prefer? I'm biased on this but I think the western/libertarian wing needs some time in the penalty box if Pierre screws it up. Ford is the unofficial leader of the Ontario/maritime style Tories, but that doesn't mean it has to be him, I like the guy but I don't think he's *that* guy. If it's a Ford cabinet minister, Caroline Mulroney has her name written all over it. Lecce could be another dark horse.

But for now I'll say Tim Houston. Executive experience, relatively young and handsome guy, upset the Liberals in 2021 and upgraded to a massive majority in 2025, very high approvals unlike Ford, more of a moderate than Ford yet less controversial with the base, taking the lead on removing interprovincial barriers, etc. Idk much else about him but from what I've seen, why not Tim?

Scott Aitchison for the next CPC leader (if Poilievre loses). The Freedom Convoy stole the leadership from him in 2022 and he is a true conservative who wants to fire the gatekeepers - Poilievre is just larping.  

Also, if Doug Ford becomes federal CPC leader I'm probably leaving the party forever.

[Can't Back Down When Punched!]

https://twitter.com/fordnation/status/1902834039871934759
Okay this I like. The love-hate relationship between federal and provincial conservatives aside, this is a bold proposal from Pierre that concerns Ontario, and Ford is backing it. I guess Poilievre did get something out of that meeting, not an endorsement, but the willingness of the two leaders to actually acknowledge each other's existence (I'm not even kidding, I don't think either of them have ever talked about the other publicly)

[Can't Back Down When Punched!]

Everytime a bad CPC poll drops, people start talking about Ford...

I'll just say this as an Ontarian who generally likes Doug Ford. He's a massive risk, might be worth taking a risk if the Liberals win a majority after everything, but still, let's take off the rose-tinted glasses for the guy for a minute here. He's a good choice if Carney turns out to be an unpopular and/or ineffective PM. This is the Kathleen Wynne scenario, where a new leader temporarily rescues an unpopular Liberal government, but after the election she's left with the rotting carcass of a government and things get so bad that someone just has to put them out of their misery. In that scenario, yeah, Ford's the guy who will run you a winning campaign.

But if Carney turns out to be a popular Prime Minister, putting a guy like Doug against him is a nightmare scenario for Conservatives that quite possibly results in a worse performance than Scheer and O'Toole.

who do u support vs who u think wins if tge tories lose

Who wins, no clue. Way too many moving parts at this point.

Who do I prefer? I'm biased on this but I think the western/libertarian wing needs some time in the penalty box if Pierre screws it up. Ford is the unofficial leader of the Ontario/maritime style Tories, but that doesn't mean it has to be him, I like the guy but I don't think he's *that* guy. If it's a Ford cabinet minister, Caroline Mulroney has her name written all over it. Lecce could be another dark horse.

But for now I'll say Tim Houston. Executive experience, relatively young and handsome guy, upset the Liberals in 2021 and upgraded to a massive majority in 2025, very high approvals unlike Ford, more of a moderate than Ford yet less controversial with the base, taking the lead on removing interprovincial barriers, etc. Idk much else about him but from what I've seen, why not Tim?

I am quite skeptical that Houston would win the Conservative leadership. He runs to the left of the provincial Liberals, branded himself as a Red Tory, and is probably the closest thing to an actual Red Tory today (no not the new stupid definition where it means a "socially liberal CPC member," but in the sense of an old school PC type). A scenario where he wins the leadership seems like the perfect scenario for the Liberals to try to outflank the Tories, and I don't think I need to explain why that would be disastrous for the CPC.

He's aligned himself closely enough to the federal Tories on a number of key issues like energy. It will be a challenge for him to move away from the microclimate of maritime political dynamics, but I don't think him having run to the left of the Liberals in 2021 necessarily means that much, as long as he's able to latch onto some strong issues (and understand that running through the centre works in Nova Scotia, not federally). He won't endear himself to the hard right/western libertarian types (but even then, there are stances he could take on things like gun control to build bridges there), but I think the establishment will seek to back a moderate candidate if Poilievre fails. Maybe Houston's too moderate, but I don't think he's completely unsellable like Charest was.

[Can't Back Down When Punched!]

Scott Aitchison for the next CPC leader (if Poilievre loses). The Freedom Convoy stole the leadership from him in 2022 and he is a true conservative who wants to fire the gatekeepers - Poilievre is just larping.  

I really like Aitchison, but let's be honest, he's small-ball. After four consecutive losses, I think the CPC needs go with someone who has a strong profile, name recognition, that kind of thing.

[Can't Back Down When Punched!]

https://twitter.com/MarkJCarney/status/1902804274909724875
The cognitive dissonance of Liberals claiming that Conservatives have no plan, while the Liberal leader is literally implementing key parts of the Conservative plan as we speak, is incredible.

[brucejoel99]

https://x.com/fordnation/status/1902834039871934759

Okay this I like. The love-hate relationship between federal and provincial conservatives aside, this is a bold proposal from Pierre that concerns Ontario, and Ford is backing it. I guess Poilievre did get something out of that meeting, not an endorsement, but the willingness of the two leaders to actually acknowledge each other's existence (I'm not even kidding, I don't think either of them have ever talked about the other publicly)

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:lnac4jblzaevaiqfoj2cv2n5/post/3lkt4bsmb6222

[King of Kensington]

Where is Carney going to run?

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

https://twitter.com/fordnation/status/1902834039871934759
Okay this I like. The love-hate relationship between federal and provincial conservatives aside, this is a bold proposal from Pierre that concerns Ontario, and Ford is backing it. I guess Poilievre did get something out of that meeting, not an endorsement, but the willingness of the two leaders to actually acknowledge each other's existence (I'm not even kidding, I don't think either of them have ever talked about the other publicly)

The idea of pre-approving projects is absurd. There are thousands of potential projects across Canada and any regulator would need to see the specific proposals first so they can not just pre-approve generic 'projects.' So, this is more performative nonsense from Poilievre.

Even more, Poilievre, who has now called for the removal of the industrial carbon tax, is making it even more clear that he doesn't care about Canada but only about further lining the pockets of the elite billionaire owners of the oil and gas sector and now the elite billionaire owners of the mining sector, the owners of the Conservative Party.

Interesting that the pro death global warming denier Poilievre hasn't said a word about wind, solar or geothermal projects. Or that Europe is very likely to place tariffs on nations that don't meet their agreed climate goals. The likeliest reason here is because Poilievre wants to shun Europe in favor of Trump's United States on his way to seeing Canada become the 51st state.

[DL]

Where is Carney going to run?

We have a clue. Chandra Arya the Liberal MO for the suburban Ottawa seat of Neoean-Carlton has been barred from running. That would be an ideal seat for Carney

[Sir Mohamed]

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:y3xrmnwvkvsq4tqcsgwch4na/post/3lksfms7uq225

Prime Minister Mark Carney is poised to call a snap federal election Sunday for an expected vote on April 28, two sources say, kicking off a campaign that is almost certain to focus on U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war and his talk of making Canada the 51st state.

The Liberals, Conservatives and NDP already have booked campaign planes and buses, and their war rooms are set up in the expectation of the Sunday election call.

The Liberal Party has also recruited a number of high-profile candidates, including former Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson and former CTV television host Evan Solomon, the two sources said. One of the sources said former Quebec finance minister Carlos Leitão will also run for the Liberals.

A final call on the April 28 vote will be made by Mr. Carney, the sources said.

Going for an early election seems like a high-risk, high-reward strategy.

Here we go!

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:ho4h4vhrwpohqtgd7ovjx6zo/post/3lkssooxdlk2b

Also looks like a decent amount of LP surge is at the expense of NDP. If these numbers hold, I have a hard time seeing Jagmeet Singh continue as leader.