2025 Canadian election - April 28

[Can't Back Down When Punched!]

Its arguably what the NDP deserve for sticking so long with a leader who was very clearly not up to it.

So in November when the NDP was polling at 20% did you think Singh was twice as good a leader as he is now?

I'm not sure the NDP would be doing any better with anyone as leader in the current circumstance. If they had picked some crackpot like Niki Ashton as leader in 2017 - they probably would have been wiped off the map in 2019

I mean, people are increasingly arguing that Poilievre was never a good leader, he was only boosted by Trudeau's unpopularity. It's very possible that the same effect is hurting the NDP, if anything even more so, as Singh now polls the worst of all federal leaders. He's 100% an anchor on the NDP right now.

[Can't Back Down When Punched!]

Anyway, Liberals are actually leaning into this carbon tax fight now. It's very shameless and cynical, but I can't lie, a part of me respects it. Carbon tax gets taken off on April 1st, if Carney's smart about it he'll drop the writ shortly before that so his foot soldiers can run on "say have you noticed how gas is cheaper now, Carneys the man eh". Then on April 15th, the rebate that Carney says will still get sent out despite the tax being axed. Cheaper gas and rebate cheques during the writ period. You'd swear Kory Teneycke is running Carney's campaign.

Now there are some Liberals musing that Carney's just pausing it to win the election and will bring it back after winning. Guys, don't let the polls get to your head. If Carney makes this big of a show of axing the tax only to bring it back, he'll destroy all political cred and goodwill he has. The carbon tax is dead, like it or not, and it's not coming back. But the timing and strategy on this could not be better for the Libs.

[brucejoel99]

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:ho4h4vhrwpohqtgd7ovjx6zo/post/3lknt6scvvk2s

The 'Axe the tax election' thing on that thumbnail is likely older, tbf, but my God, at least half of his social media posts STILL talk about the carbon tax. Trudeau became extremely tone-deaf in the last few years of his leadership, and now Poilievre's taking that mantle!

The point of diminishing returns on axe the tax was probably about a year ago, now it's an actual liability. Now he's trying to rehash the carbon tax fight over the industrial carbon tax which a) conservative provincial governments support, including Alberta, so it makes no sense to axe it federally, and b) he's opening the door to Liberals arguing "we cut taxes for families, Conservatives want to cut taxes for big business", like come on are you seriously about to let ing Carney be the populist man of the people now?? No tax is more popular than a tax that you don't have to directly pay, this is politics 101. What the hell are we doing here?

Anyway, Liberals are actually leaning into this carbon tax fight now. It's very shameless and cynical, but I can't lie, a part of me respects it. Carbon tax gets taken off on April 1st, if Carney's smart about it he'll drop the writ shortly before that so his foot soldiers can run on "say have you noticed how gas is cheaper now, Carneys the man eh". Then on April 15th, the rebate that Carney says will still get sent out despite the tax being axed. Cheaper gas and rebate cheques during the writ period. You'd swear Kory Teneycke is running Carney's campaign.

Now there are some Liberals musing that Carney's just pausing it to win the election and will bring it back after winning. Guys, don't let the polls get to your head. If Carney makes this big of a show of axing the tax only to bring it back, he'll destroy all political cred and goodwill he has. The carbon tax is dead, like it or not, and it's not coming back. But the timing and strategy on this could not be better for the Libs.

Axing the industrial carbon tax would also kill the European trade deal since that's a required clause or else a trigger-provision's immediately invoked imposing large tariffs on the violator. Who's he fooling? What end-result does he even hope to achieve!? Prove that he's Trump-lite!?

[DL]

The election will be called in the next few days. I suspect Carney will go to Rideau Hall after he gets back from Iqaluit - likely Thursday or Friday and since its in Carney's interest for the campaign to be as short as possible so he has less time to  up (witness his train wreck of a Q and A about his investments yesterday where he came across as pompous and condescending). I predict election day will be April 28.

[Can't Back Down When Punched!]

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:ho4h4vhrwpohqtgd7ovjx6zo/post/3lknt6scvvk2s

The 'Axe the tax election' thing on that thumbnail is likely older, tbf, but my God, at least half of his social media posts STILL talk about the carbon tax. Trudeau became extremely tone-deaf in the last few years of his leadership, and now Poilievre's taking that mantle!

The point of diminishing returns on axe the tax was probably about a year ago, now it's an actual liability. Now he's trying to rehash the carbon tax fight over the industrial carbon tax which a) conservative provincial governments support, including Alberta, so it makes no sense to axe it federally, and b) he's opening the door to Liberals arguing "we cut taxes for families, Conservatives want to cut taxes for big business", like come on are you seriously about to let ing Carney be the populist man of the people now?? No tax is more popular than a tax that you don't have to directly pay, this is politics 101. What the hell are we doing here?

Anyway, Liberals are actually leaning into this carbon tax fight now. It's very shameless and cynical, but I can't lie, a part of me respects it. Carbon tax gets taken off on April 1st, if Carney's smart about it he'll drop the writ shortly before that so his foot soldiers can run on "say have you noticed how gas is cheaper now, Carneys the man eh". Then on April 15th, the rebate that Carney says will still get sent out despite the tax being axed. Cheaper gas and rebate cheques during the writ period. You'd swear Kory Teneycke is running Carney's campaign.

Now there are some Liberals musing that Carney's just pausing it to win the election and will bring it back after winning. Guys, don't let the polls get to your head. If Carney makes this big of a show of axing the tax only to bring it back, he'll destroy all political cred and goodwill he has. The carbon tax is dead, like it or not, and it's not coming back. But the timing and strategy on this could not be better for the Libs.

Axing the industrial carbon tax would also kill the European trade deal since that's a required clause or else a trigger-provision's immediately invoked imposing large tariffs on the violator. Who's he fooling? What end-result does he even hope to achieve!? Prove that he's Trump-lite!?

It's just one-upmanship at this point.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

The election will be called in the next few days. I suspect Carney will go to Rideau Hall after he gets back from Iqaluit - likely Thursday or Friday and since its in Carney's interest for the campaign to be as short as possible so he has less time to  up (witness his train wreck of a Q and A about his investments yesterday where he came across as pompous and condescending). I predict election day will be April 28.

Train wreck? I actually quite liked the way he exposed Rosemary Barton’s blatant bullsh-t trying to stir up an issue by parroting the Conservatives’ hypocritical talking points.

The thing about Carney is that almost everyone from the centre left down to solid progressive is treating him like their own political Jesus. We want a winner who can dismember Poilievre, stick it to Trump, and restore faith in the country. That means we are able to afford him a level of immunity that we would not give someone else.

The guy is basically Mitt Romney, but by God, we are being attacked on two fronts here. I’ll have his back even if I do live in literally the last NDP riding in the country.

[Calgacus]

Its arguably what the NDP deserve for sticking so long with a leader who was very clearly not up to it.

So in November when the NDP was polling at 20% did you think Singh was twice as good a leader as he is now?

I'm not sure the NDP would be doing any better with anyone as leader in the current circumstance. If they had picked some crackpot like Niki Ashton as leader in 2017 - they probably would have been wiped off the map in 2019

I mean, people are increasingly arguing that Poilievre was never a good leader, he was only boosted by Trudeau's unpopularity. It's very possible that the same effect is hurting the NDP, if anything even more so, as Singh now polls the worst of all federal leaders. He's 100% an anchor on the NDP right now.

Poilievre was never as weak as Liberals claimed before he was chosen nor as strong as Conservatives have claimed since. He's stronger than O'Toole or Scheer but weaker than Harper.

[Flyersfan232]

Its arguably what the NDP deserve for sticking so long with a leader who was very clearly not up to it.

((there future https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wab_Kinew )) i suspect that the ndp will gain some of there supporters back ((i dont see them higher then 15%)) closer to election but still carney was pick by george osborne to be governor of the england the nbp can run a fear mongering campaign alone on austerity if singh was smart enough to do so. George osborne even endorse carney to be pm

[DL]

Poilievre was never as weak as Liberals claimed before he was chosen nor as strong as Conservatives have claimed since. He's stronger than O'Toole or Scheer but weaker than Harper.

I actually think O'Toole was a pretty good CPC leader - if they had stuck with him they would be in a much better position. He was less of an acerbic flame thrower than is Poilievre and would have met the moment much better as a "safe pair of hands" - but he was clearly too sensible for the freaks that make up the CPC membership base these days.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Poilievre was never as weak as Liberals claimed before he was chosen nor as strong as Conservatives have claimed since. He's stronger than O'Toole or Scheer but weaker than Harper.

I actually think O'Toole was a pretty good CPC leader - if they had stuck with him they would be in a much better position. He was less of an acerbic flame thrower than is Poilievre and would have met the moment much better as a "safe pair of hands" - but he was clearly too sensible for the freaks that make up the CPC membership base these days.

I mean, the guy actually seemed like a good person.

Even Poilievre’s staunchest supporters would have a hard time listing off “good person” as one of his top qualities with a straight face.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:6adjn7dvkoylyewa3pfic362/post/3lkmsfowci22i

Update: I tried transposing this into an actual election result, using 2021 as a baseline. The results are brutal:
LIB 217
CON 95
BQ 20
NDP 9
GRN 2
https://yapms.com/app?m=54ej1uebi617ub7

[DL]

No one will feel sorry for Poilievre is he loses - he is such a totally unsympathetic, jerk of a person. I honestly cannot look at him speaking on TV and not have an urge to take a steaming piece of sh**t and grind it into his face.

[adma]

As far as Jagmeet goes, according to present polling he's the M.J. Coldwell to Carney's '58 Dief: a wan "yesterday's man" who's no match for a wave (even if the "yesterday" he represents seemed "tomorrowish" not so very long ago)

[Flyersfan232]

if the cpc loses who is the the likely next cpc leader?

[brucejoel99]

if the cpc loses who is the the likely next cpc leader?

Interim leader? Presumably one of PP's 2 CPC Deputy Leaders, Melissa Lantsman or Tim Uppal.

Permanent?

[Mike88]

Let's do an update and compare it with the past:

1968:

Before Pearson resigned - 43% PC; 34% Lib
After Pearson resigned - 38% PC; 32% Lib
After PET was selected as leader - 50% Lib; 29% PC
1968 election results - 45% Lib; 31% PC

1984:

Before PET resigned - 48% PC; 36% Lib
After PET resigned - 46% Lib; 40% PC
After Turner was selected as leader - 48% Lib; 39% PC
1984 election results - 50% PC; 28% Lib

1993:

Before Mulroney resigned - 49% Lib; 21% PC; 16% Ref
After Mulroney resigned -  42% Lib; 29% PC; 13% Ref
After Campbell was selected as leader - 43% Lib; 33% PC; 7% Ref
1993 election results - 41% Lib; 19% Ref; 16% PC

2003:

Before Chrétien resigned - 43% Lib; 15% NDP; 14% PC; 10% CA
After Martin was elected as leader - 51% Lib; 24% Cons; 15% NDP
2004 election results - 37% Lib; 30% Cons; 16% NDP; 12% BQ

2025: (average)

Before Trudeau resigned - 45% Cons; 20% Lib; 18% NDP; 9% BQ
After Trudeau resigned - 46% Cons; 22% Lib; 17% NDP; 8% BQ
After Carney was selected as leader - 39% Lib; 36% Cons; 12% NDP; 6% BQ
2025 election results - ?

[Long Live The King!]

Maple MAGA Carney gets yet another endorsement.

Trump Says It’ll Be Easier to Deal With Liberal Leader in Canada

[OSR stands with Israel]

Maple MAGA Carney gets yet another endorsement.

Trump Says It’ll Be Easier to Deal With Liberal Leader in Canada

Polievre better put that clip in multiple ads

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Maple MAGA Carney gets yet another endorsement.

Trump Says It’ll Be Easier to Deal With Liberal Leader in Canada

Polievre better put that clip in multiple ads

Strategically, it would be dumb not to bring this up.

[Can't Back Down When Punched!]

Poilievre was never as weak as Liberals claimed before he was chosen nor as strong as Conservatives have claimed since. He's stronger than O'Toole or Scheer but weaker than Harper.

I actually think O'Toole was a pretty good CPC leader - if they had stuck with him they would be in a much better position. He was less of an acerbic flame thrower than is Poilievre and would have met the moment much better as a "safe pair of hands" - but he was clearly too sensible for the freaks that make up the CPC membership base these days.

I liked O'Toole quite a lot, but a lot of it was also that he basically lied his way to the job. He won a mandate from his party as a hard-edged "true blue Conservative who will Take Canada Back!", and okay everyone pivots in the general but O'Toole pretty much did a U-turn. You can only get away with that if it actually works. I wish he did get away with that, because it turned out Trudeau was burned out and unable to navigate post-pandemic everything, whereas I think with the very forward-looking platform that O'Toole ran on, he was much more focused on the post-pandemic challenges we were already starting to see signs of. And I guess with Carney leading the Liberals we're pretty clearly in a fiscally conservative mood, and O'Toole would have brought that to government more quickly than the Liberals could. But he didn't win. You can lie your way to the job in politics, but if you're gonna do that, you better win.

[Long Live The King!]

Poilievre was never as weak as Liberals claimed before he was chosen nor as strong as Conservatives have claimed since. He's stronger than O'Toole or Scheer but weaker than Harper.

I actually think O'Toole was a pretty good CPC leader - if they had stuck with him they would be in a much better position. He was less of an acerbic flame thrower than is Poilievre and would have met the moment much better as a "safe pair of hands" - but he was clearly too sensible for the freaks that make up the CPC membership base these days.

I liked O'Toole quite a lot, but a lot of it was also that he basically lied his way to the job. He won a mandate from his party as a hard-edged "true blue Conservative who will Take Canada Back!", and okay everyone pivots in the general but O'Toole pretty much did a U-turn. You can only get away with that if it actually works. I wish he did get away with that, because it turned out Trudeau was burned out and unable to navigate post-pandemic everything, whereas I think with the very forward-looking platform that O'Toole ran on, he was much more focused on the post-pandemic challenges we were already starting to see signs of. And I guess with Carney leading the Liberals we're pretty clearly in a fiscally conservative mood, and O'Toole would have brought that to government more quickly than the Liberals could. But he didn't win. You can lie your way to the job in politics, but if you're gonna do that, you better win.

I know I talk about this like, all the time, but I also wish O'Toole (if he had won) would have prevented the post-2021 explosion in immigration levels/temporary residents.

[brucejoel99]

Maple MAGA Carney gets yet another endorsement.

Trump Says It’ll Be Easier to Deal With Liberal Leader in Canada

Polievre better put that clip in multiple ads

Strategically, it would be dumb not to bring this up.

Risks a double-edged sword if it becomes clear that this is either Trump preemptively "backing" the winner once it became clear who'll lose, reverse-psychology, or him not hating the left as much as a right-winger whom he thinks isn't adequately kissing the ring to his liking (by not instantly folding & bending the knee; note, he's never "offered" PP the Governor's job).

There's legitimately a non-0 chance (as insane as it sounds) that this somehow actually manages to make more of the soft Canadian electorate inclined to vote for Carneymania since the only Canadians who might be willing to take Trump's words at face-value at this point may just be CPC-voting Canadian Trump supporters who were already gonna vote for PP anyway.

Poilievre was never as weak as Liberals claimed before he was chosen nor as strong as Conservatives have claimed since. He's stronger than O'Toole or Scheer but weaker than Harper.

I actually think O'Toole was a pretty good CPC leader - if they had stuck with him they would be in a much better position. He was less of an acerbic flame thrower than is Poilievre and would have met the moment much better as a "safe pair of hands" - but he was clearly too sensible for the freaks that make up the CPC membership base these days.

I liked O'Toole quite a lot, but a lot of it was also that he basically lied his way to the job. He won a mandate from his party as a hard-edged "true blue Conservative who will Take Canada Back!", and okay everyone pivots in the general but O'Toole pretty much did a U-turn. You can only get away with that if it actually works. I wish he did get away with that, because it turned out Trudeau was burned out and unable to navigate post-pandemic everything, whereas I think with the very forward-looking platform that O'Toole ran on, he was much more focused on the post-pandemic challenges we were already starting to see signs of. And I guess with Carney leading the Liberals we're pretty clearly in a fiscally conservative mood, and O'Toole would have brought that to government more quickly than the Liberals could. But he didn't win. You can lie your way to the job in politics, but if you're gonna do that, you better win.

Case-in-point, Doug Ford did the exact same thing & keeps winning elections with majority governments! But you can't win the modern federal CPC leadership without appealing hard to the right, where the majority of voting party members sit, which was ultimately the problem for people like MacKay & Charest: O'Toole may have been untrustworthy, but at least he adapted to the Red Tory constituency's rotting casket fading away amid the Reform wing's ever-permanent ascendancy: going from running his 1st leadership campaign as a Red Tory, to acknowledging the party's far-right extremist elements during his 2nd leadership campaign in order to outflank MacKay to his right & win the leadership, to then pivoting to the center immediately after winning the leadership since the Liberal minority government could fall at any moment; while it may not have ultimately worked out as a strategic matter, it at least actually showed that he knew how to get his head out of his f**king ass & try! And he held the expected Liberal majority to a repeat minority! CCP election interference hurt him, but he was fired for never being seen as hardline enough by his caucus to begin with. Now, the fascinating counterfactuals are MacKay over O'Toole in 2020 & Bernier over Scheer in 2017.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Everybody knows what Trump is doing with those comments. If he wants to give Poilievre a chance, he should honestly just keep his mouth shut. Canadians are done with this sh-t.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Everybody knows what Trump is doing with those comments. If he wants to give Poilievre a chance, he should honestly just keep his mouth shut. Canadians are done with this sh-t.

He may very well support Carney given Carney’s background in banking

[brucejoel99]

Everybody knows what Trump is doing with those comments. If he wants to give Poilievre a chance, he should honestly just keep his mouth shut. Canadians are done with this sh-t.

He may very well support Carney given Carney’s background in banking

Actually could be, Carney said in his inaugural address as PM that he respects Trump after they've worked well together in the past.