Derek Tran will win

[Harris is 47]

Steel is overrated.

[Dwarven Dragon]

Steel is overrated.

Ok. Says who? You've offered no analysis or reason why you have specific knowledge here. If you're trying to sway the people of CA-45, a three word post is a very poor method of doing so.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

I'll admit to being a D hack on CA-45 (which btw is maybe 25% Vietnamese CVAP at most), how heavily Asian areas will vote in 2024, and more broadly where both Vietnamese voters and AAPIs stand within the Dem coalition. But the primary results do suggest that Derek Tran has a better shot of winning than Jay Chen did.

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1774994000354967747
Dems overperformed in majority Vietnamese precincts in CA-45 relative to partisan turnout

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Atlas gives you 22,000 characters to make an articulate argument for why you believe something. Putting 3 words in a topic thread is a waste, and I recommend you delete this post or come back and actually elaborate and write something beyond a twitter troll post. You can have hot takes, but making low effort threads ruins the forum's quality.

[Harris is 47]

You want an analyst? okay.
Steel
1.Only outperformed Trump by 3 in 2020
2.Only won by 4 in 2022
3.Is doing worse in the 2024 primary than she did in 2022
3.Tran in Vietnamese

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

You want an analyst? okay.
Steel
1.Only outperformed Trump by 3 in 2020
2.Only won by 4 in 2022
3.Is doing worse in the 2024 primary than she did in 2022
3.Tran in Vietnamese

1. She is running against an incumbent
3. In her 2022 primary she got less than half the vote... she got nearly 55% this time. That is just false

Additionally her district was carried by the GOP nominees statewide for both Senate and Gov in 2022. I expect Garvey to carry it in November.

Steele has outperformed the rest of the GOP ticket every time she has been on the ballot with them.  I expect that to continue

[Tekken_Guy]

You want an analyst? okay.
Steel
1.Only outperformed Trump by 3 in 2020
2.Only won by 4 in 2022
3.Is doing worse in the 2024 primary than she did in 2022
3.Tran in Vietnamese

1. She is running against an incumbent
3. In her 2022 primary she got less than half the vote... she got nearly 55% this time. That is just false

Additionally her district was carried by the GOP nominees statewide for both Senate and Gov in 2022. I expect Garvey to carry it in November.

Steele has outperformed the rest of the GOP ticket every time she has been on the ballot with them.  I expect that to continue

1 is a fair point but 3 is not: there was another Republican on the ballot in 2022 and there wasn’t in 2024.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

You want an analyst? okay.
Steel
1.Only outperformed Trump by 3 in 2020
2.Only won by 4 in 2022
3.Is doing worse in the 2024 primary than she did in 2022
3.Tran in Vietnamese

1. She is running against an incumbent
3. In her 2022 primary she got less than half the vote... she got nearly 55% this time. That is just false

Additionally her district was carried by the GOP nominees statewide for both Senate and Gov in 2022. I expect Garvey to carry it in November.

Steele has outperformed the rest of the GOP ticket every time she has been on the ballot with them.  I expect that to continue

1 is a fair point but 3 is not: there was another Republican on the ballot in 2022 and there wasn’t in 2024.

The difference between both GOP candidates in 2022 and her own performance in 2024 is not large. (Less than 2%) Additionally we have numerus examples of Democrats voting for the less electable gop candidates in primaries . With only 1 democrat running in 2022 I have no doubt that some of those votes for the third candidate in 2022 aren't really GOP voters. How many is unclear but in 2024 there was only 1 GOP candidate and a few democrats so there was no comparable "tactical GOP" votes.

Even if you dismiss my points on tactical voters, if Steel underforms her 2022 general by the same way she "underperformed" the total GOP 2022 primary vote, Steel still wins

[The '90s' Last Champion]

Steel is overrated.

Ok. Says who? You've offered no analysis or reason why you have specific knowledge here. If you're trying to sway the people of CA-45, a three word post is a very poor method of doing so.

That is par for the course for this user. They just post all of these unlikely predictions and treat it as gospel.

Also I thought we had already learned that presidential results are not a good baseline for House results in CA.

[Harris is 47]

Steel is overrated.

Ok. Says who? You've offered no analysis or reason why you have specific knowledge here. If you're trying to sway the people of CA-45, a three word post is a very poor method of doing so.

That is par for the course for this user. They just post all of these unlikely predictions and treat it as gospel.

Also I thought we had already learned that presidential results are not a good baseline for House results in CA.

Cope,Tran will win.
Steel beraly won in a red wave against a weak opponent.

[Harris is 47]

You want an analyst? okay.
Steel
1.Only outperformed Trump by 3 in 2020
2.Only won by 4 in 2022
3.Is doing worse in the 2024 primary than she did in 2022
3.Tran in Vietnamese

1. She is running against an incumbent
3. In her 2022 primary she got less than half the vote... she got nearly 55% this time. That is just false

Additionally her district was carried by the GOP nominees statewide for both Senate and Gov in 2022. I expect Garvey to carry it in November.

Steele has outperformed the rest of the GOP ticket every time she has been on the ballot with them.  I expect that to continue

Kim also ran against an incumbent and outperformed Trump by 11.
Yes,her performance were weak in both 2020 and 2022.

[Harris is 47]

Lean D at this point
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/3030500/democrats-appear-competitive-safe-republican-california-district-poll/

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

Lean D at this point
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/3030500/democrats-appear-competitive-safe-republican-california-district-poll/

Not that surprising.

Rep. Michelle Steel (R-CA), a two-term representative of California’s 45th Congressional District, may face trouble holding on to her seat, according to the poll. Her challenger, Democrat Derek Tran, is in a strong position against the incumbent, according to Tulchin Research, a Democratic consulting firm that describes itself as working for “Democratic candidates for elected ballot office.”

When asked about each candidate by name, Tran received 41% of the support among likely voters compared to Steel’s 42%.

The poll also indicates Tran is making progress with undecided voters. When those polled were given information about both candidates’ messaging, Tran polled 13 points ahead of Steel. His support grew by double digits to 52%, while Steel’s fell to 39%.

“The data shows that voters are fed up with Michelle Steel’s record of corruption and voting to restrict women’s reproductive rights,” Orrin Evans, a spokesman for Tran’s campaign, told the Washington Examiner. “Army veteran Derek Tran, the son of Vietnamese refugees, is ready to flip this seat and get to work for Southern California families.”

[Harris is 47]

 

[MaynardFriedman]

Last time, Democrats ran someone who is Chinese and Steele ran a Sinophobic campaign against him, which is a great way to maximize the Vietnamese vote share voting R. This time, they are running a Vietnamese guy, which I think is enough to win.

[Harris is 47]

Guys,donate to Derek Tran,he can win.
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/derektran_website?refcode=web-button

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/VietsForHarris/status/1830042438699782198?t=_k_hhIXcntdbAqPw...

The micotargeting is getting rather personal for this district: note which flag is in the background for example.

[CentristRepublican]

Well Tran did pull it off in what was the 2nd or 3rd closest House race in the country 

[100% pro-choice no matter what]

well well well

[Progressive Pessimist]

Your username was way off, but you managed to at least get this.

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

well well well

Idk if I’m more surprised the victory was so narrow given what happened in CA-27, or if that CA-45 even flipped at all given the Presidential outcome.

[Don't blame me I voted for Harris]

Steel is overrated.

Ok. Says who? You've offered no analysis or reason why you have specific knowledge here. If you're trying to sway the people of CA-45, a three word post is a very poor method of doing so.

You underestimated their power.