WSJ swing state polls: trump leads in 6/7, Wisconsin tied

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

This should dispel the notion that GA is somehow easily the worst Biden state. I would not be shocked if it's the 2nd bluest after Michigan (no, the 98% of Michigan that is non-Arab will still have swings very correlated with WI PA).

Those North Carolina Numbers look bad. But then RNC Chair Whatley was the NC GOP Party Chair.

One thing interesting is NC despite being an initially blue trending sunbelt state has an unusual affinity to Trump. You would expect it to be part of the AZ, TX, GA, VA gang yet Trump did better than Romney in 2016 and held it despite all odds in 2020.

We certainly don't need NC

[BlueSwan]

Swing state races seem to be lagging when it comes to Biden's supposed comeback.

These polls are consistent with the idea that Trump can lose the NPV by 3-4% points and still win the EC, just like it was the case in 2020.

Biden still needs to gain around 4%-points across the board for this race to be even a dead heat. Not looking good to put it mildly.

[Eraserhead]

Not a Biden stooge here but if he gets much more than 3% on election day, I'd be surprised. The amount of people who share his bizarre collection of right-wing, left-wing and "moderate" views is pretty small.

25% of Americans are unfavorable of both Biden / Trump, and these double unfavorables are more  among young people, who are RFK Jr’s biggest supporters. 41% of 18-29 voters are unfavorable of both Trump/Biden

The double-unfavorables alone would clearly give Kennedy close to 10%, and factor in that - yes - he has his own merits: he is charismatic, he comes off as a nicer guy than both Biden & Trump, and he has much more physical vitality than the two older candidates

At some point, you’re going to have to concede that RFK Jr will be a force in the election

I mean, if the election is as close as I think it might be, 3% would be more than enough to be "a force".

But he's not going to do much better than that... and in fact might do quite a bit worse depending on how many ballots he gets on.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1775339474525868209

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Rassy has Biden at 45% yeah sure jan Biden is at 39% we have been thru this already

This article explains why Twitter polls should have a warning label on it http://mediashift.org/2018/01/twitter-add-warning-label-polling-feature/

[GAinDC]

What’s going on in GA? 🤔

[Agafin]

These states are starting to look a bit more realistic. Trump winning Georgia by high single digits has always been unlikely.

[wbrocks67]

Curious how Fabrizio/GBAO will compare to Fabrizio/Impact in 2022; those polls all underestimated Dems by a few points.

Though I do think it may be a bit questionable for outlets to continue doing polls with Fabrizio now that Tony Fabrizio is a paid employee on Trump's campaign.

[Gracile]

I am highly skeptical that WI will vote 3-6 points to the left of all the other major swing states. This is a state where polling has underestimated the GOP vote share numerous times, and I am inclined to believe that is the case again.

[Dan the Roman]

I am highly skeptical that WI will vote 3-6 points to the left of all the other major swing states. This is a state where polling has underestimated the GOP vote share numerous times, and I am inclined to believe that is the case again.

Recent elections indicate that the GOP has a low ceiling, and most polling misses have been underestimating how close to it the GOP is.

Trump is highly unlikely to get to 50%, and while he may end up with something closer to the Supreme Court margin in a national blowout with Biden close in Texas while winning NC/Florida, odds are he will get 47%-48%.

The question then becomes whether Biden ends up around 47% like Hillary, or closer to 50%. I would posit the ranges are

Trump 45%-49%
Biden 47%-51%

With the median outcome being Biden by around 2%.

[quesaisje]

Link (pdf) to the actual report.

The numbers to focus on at this point in the cycle are the head-to-heads:



These aren't rosy for Biden either, but his vote share isn't as shockingly low as it is in the reported toplines.

Biden's campaign looks better after the past month, especially relatively speaking, but he's still an unpopular president. It will be hard to call him the favorite until they've pulled him out of this hole.

[GAinDC]

This should dispel the notion that GA is somehow easily the worst Biden state. I would not be shocked if it's the 2nd bluest after Michigan (no, the 98% of Michigan that is non-Arab will still have swings very correlated with WI PA).

The folks who think GA will be an easy pickup for Trump can never explain how he does it. The problem with GA for Republicans is that the areas growing the fastest are also trending left the fastest. So Trump doesn’t only need reduced turnout in blue areas; he also needs to flip Biden voters. Doing both is a tall order.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Crap polls based on 39 Approval numbers I am so ready to vote