🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 4.0 (Up next: Sep 2025 Local and Jan 2026 Presidential)

[Mike88]

Surprised PPM has managed to put up 21 districts worth of candidates and is running separately.

Yes, for a party that small to have candidates in all 21 district is surprising. The fallout with PSD/CDS ended in the Courts, but the appeals from PPM were rejected.

Also, I'm surprised by the number of parties/coalitions running, a total of 20 (counting the PSD Azores coalition as AD also), as I was actually expecting less parties running, due to the closeness with the last election and the upcoming local elections in September.

[Mike88]

Trump's tariffs: Prime Minister announces billions in support to businesses, and warns that the world we knew "is over".

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:dzyt7vqzcsuj2ld5epcqt2gq/post/3lmhj3yt2cq2l

Government has prepared a set of measures with a “volume of more than ten thousand ME” to respond to US tariffs

After a cabinet meeting this morning, Prime Minister Luís Montenegro gave a speech in which he announced a series of measures to help businesses during the ongoing chaos of Trump's tariffs. Montenegro started by saying that the world that we knew for generations has changed, citing Trump's policies, the war in Ukraine and in the Middle East. He added that economic growth, jobs and security are "in danger", and because of this, his government decided to announce new measures. While welcoming the 90-day tariff suspension, Montenegro unveiled a 10 billion euros aid program to help businesses, in which existing programs will be strengthened and new ones added. The Prime Minister added that aid to companies will begin regardless of the outcome of possible negotiations between the US and the EU. Montenegro said that Portugal is an ally of the US, but that even allies have "disagreements". At the end of his speech, Montenegro went into "full campaign mode", saying that in times of global uncertainty, it is time for "adults to be present in the room" and avoid "unpreparedness and adventures", adding that political maturity is decisive.

[Mike88]

Madeira's new regional Parliament is sworn in: Members elected the first woman speaker of the regional assembly.

Almost 3 weeks after the Madeira regional elections, the newly elected members took office and elected a new Speaker, making history. PSD candidate Rubina Leal was elected with 39 votes in favor, 8 blank, and became the first woman to preside over the Madeira regional assembly.

[Mike88]

The Liberals (IL) published their manifesto yesterday:

The Liberal Initiative (IL) published, yesterday, their manifesto for the 18 May election. The party proposes the privatization of several state owned companies, like CP trains and RTP, defending that the State has "no vocation to manage businesses". They also propose cuts in State spending, with the creation of an "unique structure" to cut 5% of State primary expenditure in 10 years, and merge several government entities. On the other hand, the party has dropped one of their signature policies, a flat IRS tax rate of 15%. The main policies:

• Privatization of several state owned companies;
• TAP airlines, the Public bank CGD, the public TV and radio RTP and CP trains are the priority;
• Tax reform, with just two IRS brackets;
• One bracket with a 15% rate, until 26,768 euros, and beyond that a 28% rate;
• Corporate tax cut to 15%;
• "Unique structure" to cut 5% of primay spending in 10 years;
• Creation of a e-Governance model, similar to Estonia;
• VAT cut in new construction;
• Freedom of choice in healthcare and education;

[Mike88]

Today's debates:

• Pedro Nuno Santos (PS) vs Rui Rocha (IL) - RTP1, 9pm:

There is no approximation between PS and IL. The debate started with the PM's bussiness, again, with the moderator asking Rui Rocha if the case would damage a possible deal with the PSD, but Rocha downplayed the bussiness case and said he's open to be part of a "solution" to the country, focused on growth, wages and tax cuts. Pedro Nuno Santos said he wants to "discuss the country" but that the PM's case cannot be ignored, adding that only the PS can defeat the AD. The moderator then asked Rocha about Javier Milei, and Rocha only said that he supports "European liberalism" adding that Argentina is "on the other side of the ocean and we're on this side". Rocha then raised the issue of privatizations, from TAP to RTP, and pointed to the problems on TAP airlines, in which PNS said he's "proud" of his work, while as a minister, on the arline, and accused Rocha of having no experience. Nuno Santos also criticized the Liberal's manifesto, accusing them of wanting to use a "chainsaw" to cut State services. On Trump's tarrifs, Rocha agrees with the government, while PNS wanted to be consulted by Montenegro. Both agree in defense spending increases, with Nuno Santos wanting a "deal" with the PSD on this matter. The debate ended with Rocha saying that the PS will only "stagnate" the country, while Pedro Nuno Santos said he's "worried" of how close the AD is to the Liberal's policies;

• Mariana Mortágua (BE) vs Inês Sousa Real (PAN) - CNN Portugal, 10pm:

Another boring debate. Trump's tarrifs started the debate, with Mortágua accusing Trump of being a "bully" and that we should not fall into his blackmail, while Sousa Real said that a trade war will hurt a lot people and criticized the government's response. On defense, Mortágua pressed that Europe "doesn't need more weapons" and that this idea is fuelled by lobbies, while Sousa Real said that it's not up to Portugal to buy more weapons. On housing, Mortágua pressed for rent controls, saying it "solve the problems of young people", while Sousa Real defended a different approach, with tax cuts and credits. Sousa Real came out against cuts on fuel taxes and said she's open to tax profits of big oil companies. Both, however, "clashed" on corporate taxes, with Sousa Real proposing 4% cut to 17%, while Mortágua accused PAN of "siding" with big business;

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV, News Now and CM and Negócios newspapers.

Vote share %:

24.4% PS (+1.3)
23.0% AD (-3.5)
14.5% CHEGA (+2.2)
  5.7% IL (-3.5)
  5.0% CDU (+3.2)
  4.3% Livre (+0.3)
  2.9% PAN (+0.2)
  2.5% BE (-0.2)
  2.2% Others/Invalid (-1.7)
15.4% Undecided (+1.5)

Popularity ratings: (between 0 and 5)

2.9 Rui Rocha (nc)
2.8 Rui Tavares (nc)
2.7 Luís Montenegro (-0.1)
2.6 Pedro Nuno Santos (nc)
2.5 Nuno Melo (nc)
2.5 Inês Sousa Real (-0.1)
2.3 Mariana Mortágua (+0.1)
2.2 Paulo Raimundo (nc)
2.1 André Ventura (+0.1)

Q1: Preferred Prime Minister:

46.5% Luís Montenegro
37.9% Pedro Nuno Santos
  5.9% Both
  9.7% Undecided

Poll conducted between 4 and 9 April 2025. Polled 607 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

More election manifestos:

CDU leader, Paulo Raimundo, presented his Communist-Green coalition manifesto to next May's election. Regarding possible deals on the left, Raimundo says he will only accept one if it has a "rupture program" and adds that he will not accept just "words" from the PS. The main policies:

• 15% wage increase for all workers;
• Impose a 35-hour work week;
• Increase public investment to 5% of GDP;
• Increase of 5% for all pensions, with retroactives;
• VAT cuts in energy and telecommunications;
• Spending increase on housing, worth 1% of GDP;
• Increase of the minimum wage to 1,000 euros by July 2025;

Livre (L) also unveiled its election manifesto, which will be officially approved and presented, this weekend, in the party's congress. The main policies:

• Minimum wage increase to 1,250 euros by 2029;
• Annual investment of 1 billion euros on public housing;
• Construction of 600,000 new houses, long term, with affordable rents/prices;
• Aid to help buy a house, up to 30% the cost of the property;
• "Social inheritance" policy, in which newborns would receive 5,000 euros;
• Creation of a "super-rich tax";
• Progressive implementation of a Unconditional Basic Income;
• Extend the period for an abortion from the current 10 to 14 weeks;

[Estrella]

How did the Greens end up in a permanent coalition with the Communists and do they really exist as a separate party except on paper?

[#UnbanTender]

How did the Greens end up in a permanent coalition with the Communists and do they really exist as a separate party except on paper?

PEV is not a real party. It is a PCP front organization created to preempt the existence of an actual green party and so that the PCP can campaign with family friendly beehive imagery instead of scary hammer and sickles. Closest analogy would be the relationship between Fidesz and KDNP.

[Mike88]

How did the Greens end up in a permanent coalition with the Communists and do they really exist as a separate party except on paper?

PEV is not a real party. It is a PCP front organization created to preempt the existence of an actual green party and so that the PCP can campaign with family friendly beehive imagery instead of scary hammer and sickles. Closest analogy would be the relationship between Fidesz and KDNP.

Spot on. Plus, as by the mid 80's the relationship between PCP and MDP/CDE, the then PCP coalition partner, was falling apart, the Communists needed a new "party" to run with, and PEV fit the bill.

[kaoras]

Speaking of the CDU, any particular reason for that surge in the Intercampus poll or is just random noise?

[Mike88]

Speaking of the CDU, any particular reason for that surge in the Intercampus poll or is just random noise?

I would say it's mostly noise. Another poll was released today, by Aximage, and the CDU is at around 3%, after the undecideds are distributed, since Intercampus only publishes raw numbers.

Aximage poll for DN newspaper:

Vote share %:

30.1% PS (-0.7)
27.2% AD (+1.4)
18.6% CHEGA (+1.3)
  6.1% IL (-1.2)
  4.4% Livre (+1.9)
  3.2% CDU (+0.8 )
  2.3% BE (-2.0)
  1.8% PAN (+1.0)
  6.3% Others/Invalid (-2.5)

Q1: Preferred Prime Minister:

36% Luís Montenegro (+2)
27% Pedro Nuno Santos (-1)
22% Neither (-3)
15% Undecided (+2)

Poll conducted between 4 and 8 April 2025. Polled 667 voters. MoE of 3.80%.

[Mike88]

AD presents its election manifesto:

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:q4hsszitp2l42iwqgekxk7fm/post/3lmkq2o2c6c2k

Luís Montenegro presented the AD program, and also the new campaign anthem, which calls for space to work. The Prime Minister is betting on a direct comparison with the leader of the PS, Pedro Nuno Santos.

The AD - PSD/CDS coalition unveiled, this afternoon, their manifesto for the snap general election. In his speech, PM Luís Montenegro pointed that, despite the external challenges, "Portugal is fine and is recommended", and that the country is financially stable. Montenegro pressed that if the current policies aren't continued, the country will get "worse" and that his government "saved" the welfare state. Later, after saying that "Portugal is fine", he warned that nothing is certain and that this is not the time for "adventures and sudden impulses", a clear jibe at Pedro Nuno Santos. He has proposed tax cuts, pension increases and announced a ban on cell phones in schools and regulation of social media for children. The main policies:

• Income tax cuts of 2 billion euros until 2029;
• Minimum wage at 1,100 euros by 2029;
• Corporate tax cut to 17%;
• On pensions, increase of the Solidarity Supplement for the Elderly;
• More public-private partnerships in the NHS;
• Create new 12,000 vacancies in kindergartens;
• Ban of cell phones in schools and social media regulation for children under 12 years old;
• Anticipate, as possible, the 2% target for defense spending;
• More police and CCTVs on urban streets;
• Regulate immigration with more integration and ease expulsion of illegal immigrants;

[Mike88]

11 April debates:

• Isabel Mendes Lopes (Livre) vs Nuno Melo (CDS) - TVI, 9pm:

One of the controversial debates. Montenegro wanted his "number 2" in the coaltion to replace him, but Livre leader Rui Tavares felt he was being sidelined and also refused to attend the debate, sending a surrogate instead, the party's caucus leader Isabel Mendes Lopes. The main topic was defense, with Nuno Melo saying that we should separate the USA from its "current transitional government", pressing that the US is an important ally and accused Livre of wanting to end NATO. Lopes refused the accusation that the party is anti-NATO, but pointed that the current US President did say he wanted to leave the alliance and that Europe needs to be prepared for any attack. Melo accused Livre of being "out of it" regarding defense, saying that US is important to NATO and that defense spending increase in needed;

• Rui Rocha (IL) vs Paulo Raimundo (CDU) - SIC Notícias, 10pm:

The debate started with housing, with Raimundo saying the "liberal way" doesn't work and that they want to privatize everything. Rocha responded by pointing that if PCP came to power, the country would go bankrupt and lead to a "catastrophe". On business, Raimundo says he wants more small businesses and less big companies, while Rocha criticized this view, adding that big foreign businesses are needed in Portugal. On the NHS, Rocha wants freedom of choice, something that Raimudno called a "jungle law", saying it would only benefit private healthcare. On wages, Raimundo defended big public investements, mainly a NMW of 1,000 euros by July, but Rocha "warned" that wages cannot be increased by decree. The debate ended with the war in Ukraine, as Rocha pointed to the Communists' positions, something that Raimundo didn't liked;

22 debates left.... Christ!

[Steve from Lambeth]

Is there a historical reason why virtually every party leader in Portugal debates every other party leader in Portugal? In the UK, if the Green Party tried to set up a one-on-one debate with the Conservatives, Kemi Badenoch would either laugh off the possibility or deploy a surrogate from the lowest possible echelons of her Shadow Cabinet. (This isn't a Kemi thing, either, as David Cameron is still the only Conservative leader to ever attend a debate that wasn't 1v1 against Labour.)

[crals]

Until quite recently there were only 4 or 5 different party lists with parliamentary representation running in each election, so it wasn't an issue to arrange 1 on 1 debates for everyone. We only got a sudden jump to the number of parties in parliament in 2019, but smaller parties resist proposals to change up the debates format.

[Mike88]

Is there a historical reason why virtually every party leader in Portugal debates every other party leader in Portugal? In the UK, if the Green Party tried to set up a one-on-one debate with the Conservatives, Kemi Badenoch would either laugh off the possibility or deploy a surrogate from the lowest possible echelons of her Shadow Cabinet. (This isn't a Kemi thing, either, as David Cameron is still the only Conservative leader to ever attend a debate that wasn't 1v1 against Labour.)

Until quite recently there were only 4 or 5 different party lists with parliamentary representation running in each election, so it wasn't an issue to arrange 1 on 1 debates for everyone. We only got a sudden jump to the number of parties in parliament in 2019, but smaller parties resist proposals to change up the debates format.

Exactly. I think this format of 1 on 1 debates started in the 1986 Presidential election, and then became permanent after the 1999 general election. It worked fine with 4 or 5 main parties, but since 2019, with up to 8-9 different parties, some with just 1 MP, it became ridiculous. TV networks are also to blame, because they do not even bother to propose a different format. The format of the EP elections, a 4-way debate, would be a better alternative. Plus, more ludicrous than the actual debate format, is the following post-debate(s) "analysis" by pundits, in which they give points to party leaders as if it were a Miss Universe contest.

[Mike88]

Campaign update:

Besides the debates and the constant stream of polls, which show a too close to call race between AD and PS with a comfortable right-wing majority, the campaign continues to be dominated by tabloid stories with the headlines "Exclusive: Montenegro did this". The latest was, again, about his bank accounts. Correio da Manhã newspaper published, this Saturday, a story in which they suggest the PM "hid" bank accounts and was asked by the Prosecutor to explain these accounts in his name. The amount of money in these accounts seems to be below the legal limit in which politicians are obliged to declare it to the Courts. In reaction, Montenegro said that some media outlets are just "manipulating facts", and confirmed the Prosecutor's request about his accounts saying that all was explained, adding he has nothing to hide.

Update: The Prosecutor has closed its review on Montenegro's bank accounts, adding that nothing irregular was found.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

honestly I kinda like the 1-on-1 debate stuff since it seems less likely to make things into a "dogpile on x party" as some large debates have been, and keeps things to just the differences between the two parties (which can also help justify some of these smaller parties' existence) but with so many parties it's obviously a slog, doubly so when you have 2 elections a year apart.

[Mike88]

12 April debates:

• Pedro Nuno Santos (PS) vs Inês Sousa Real (PAN) - TVI, 9pm:

With Pedro Nuno Santos in Porto city and Inês Sousa Real in Lisbon, the debate had a 314 km (195 miles) gap. The debate was dominated by taxes, with PAN pressing on corporate tax cuts and that businesses should not be "demonized". Pedro Nuno Santos rejected an universal corporate tax cut, saying that taxes should only be cut for businesses which invest in innovation and higher wages. Sousa Real then criticized PNS for now wanting a 0% VAT on basic goods, pointing that the PS had rejected similar proposals in the past, and that the party is just promissing "popular stuff" for the election campaign. On fuel taxes, Nuno Santos wants to continue the supports to lower fuel prices and rejected increasing the carbon tax. Sousa Real "blamed" PS and PSD for the weak public transportation network in the country, saying that both major parties have sided with "those who pollute" rather than families. On housing, PNS said that despite supporting the changes to the new soil laws, he's not a "fan of them" and that the PSD/CDS government has created more problems than solutions, while Sousa Real "trashed" the new laws, saying it will destroy green spaces and criticized the PS' idea of using the public bank's profits to pay construction of new houses;

• Mariana Mortágua (BE) vs Paulo Raimundo (CDU) - RTP3, 10pm:

The debate between the two parties on the far-left, started with post-election scenarios. Mortágua said she's open to talks with the PS and other left-wing parties, and cited housing and workers policies. The same tone came from Paulo Raimundo, saying that the current governmental path needs to be "broken", but both criticized the PS for, in their view, siding with the right-wing. Questioned on what separates them, Raimundo criticized BE's position on immigration, mainly the extinction of the former border control agency, SEF, while Mortágua criticized the Communists' position on euthanasia. Both didn't want to talk a lot about the issue of Montenegro "ethical standards", despite criticizing the PM, and went on to discuss taxes on the wealthy and the end of tax benefits. On immigration, Raimundo said that Portugal has "limited" resources to handle immigrants, but asked what would the country be without them, while Mortágua said that debate on this issue has been "damaged" by the right-wing, accusing, again, the PS of siding with the right. On defense both rejected spending increases, with Mortágua suggesting that Russia is as dangerous as the USA, while Raimundo said that the war needs to stop;

[Mike88]

honestly I kinda like the 1-on-1 debate stuff since it seems less likely to make things into a "dogpile on x party" as some large debates have been, and keeps things to just the differences between the two parties (which can also help justify some of these smaller parties' existence) but with so many parties it's obviously a slog, doubly so when you have 2 elections a year apart.

I also don't think it's a fair format because some debates are only broadcast on news channels, with an
audience of around, or less than, 100,000 people, while in the main channels, audience figures can reach 1 million. Plus, two debates per day is tiring and just adds noise and makes the previous debate "worthless" as there is already a new one in the next few minutes.

[Mike88]

Another day, 2 more debates; 13 April debates:

• Nuno Melo (CDS) vs Inês Sousa Real (PAN) - SIC, 9pm:

The debate between the smallest parties in the Assembly, CDS has 2 MPs, PAN just 1 MP. The debate started with Sousa Real asking "Where is the AD's candidate for Prime Minister?", adding that Montenegro not being in a debate with her is an act of "cowardice". Melo answered that she was looking at the leader of one of the parties in AD, and Melo pressed on the past 11 months of the government, listing all the policies and saying that there is social peace. On housing, PAN accused "some2 on the left of having "Salazar type policies" to resolve the housing crisis, but added that the blame is all in PS and PSD, accusing the AD of following CHEGA's "fear agenda" of mixing the housing crisis with the rising immigration and crime rates. Melo accused PAN of being "extremist" by seeing only "CHEGA everywhere", and that the government has a humanistic and responsible immigration policy. Regarding defense, Sousa Real said that Portugal does not have the vocation to be competitive in the arms industry, a position mocked by Nuno Melo who questioned whether our military will have anything to fight with if they enter combat, and that the defense industry could be an economic opportunity. The debate ended with bullfights, with PAN criticizing CDS and Melo saying he will not impose any ban;

• Rui Rocha (IL) vs Rui Tavares (Livre) - CNN Portugal, 10pm:

The debate started with defense. Rocha said that update in our armed forces could be an opportunity for new industries, like technologies and cybersecurity, while Tavares tried to explain, again, the party's position on NATO, saying that they do not want Portugal to leave, but that a separate European defense community should be created. On Trump's tarrifs, Rocha labeled them as "mistake" and that the EU's response must be surgical. Then, Tavares started criticizing Montenegro, saying he's all "propaganda". On social security, Rocha proposed a reform of the system and reinforcement of savings, while Tavares pressed on the 5,000 euros savings account proposal for each child born in Portugal. Tavares went on to criticize the Liberals' proposal of a departement to "reduce spending", saying it's just like Musk's DOGE and that IL wants to privatize everything. In response, Rocha said that Livre is "between the hammer and the sickle", in which Tavares replied, "At least we're not on the chainsaw's side". The debate ended with Rocha saying he does not regret having signed a coalition agreement with the AD, while Tavares downplayed the PS's tactical voting strategy, stating that they want "a pluralist policy based on experience and facts";

[Mike88]

Radio Renascença's "Poll of polls" analysis on voting by age:

Radio Renascença's "Poll of polls" did an analysis on how polls are showing voting intentions by age. They used the crosstabs of polls carried out in 2025 and concluded that AD still leads among young voters, while among the rest of the voters, over 35 years old, a tie between PS and AD persists:

18-34 years old:

20.3% AD
17.0% CHEGA
12.6% PS
11.4% IL
  6.5% Livre
  5.5% BE
  1.2% CDU
11.5% Others/Invalid
14.0% Undecided

+35 years old:

27.0% PS
26.3% AD
14.6% CHEGA
  5.0% IL
  4.0% CDU
11.1% Others/Invalid
12.0% Undecided

[Mike88]

TV audience ratings in the first week of debates show a drop compared to 2024:

Voter apathy sinking in or format failure? The debates, which started on 7 April, seem to not be generating a lot of interest among voters. Analysis of the debate viewing figures shows that, in the first week, the debates had an average audience of 688,000 viewers on the 3 main broadcasters, compared to 789,000 in 2024. On news channels, audience figures also fell, with an average of 90,000 viewers, compared to 145,000 in 2024.

[Mike88]

14 April debates:

• Luís Montenegro (PSD) vs Rui Rocha (IL) - RTP1, 9pm:

Despite being open for a deal after the elections, both leaders tried to "steal" votes from each other. The debate started with the case around the Prime Minister, with Rocha saying that voters didn't want another election, accusing Montenegro of "irresponsability" in the management of the whole affair, and asked the PM if he's up for the job of responsability. Montenegro didn't respond directly to Rocha, just rejecting any conflicts of interests, and went on a more "diplomatic approach" by targeting the left-wing opposition and showing the differences between the PSD and the IL, saying that it is neither socialist nor liberal, but is also open to negotiations with the IL. On taxes and the NHS, the PM said he reduced taxes and rejected the failure of his NHS policies, pointing to lower wanting times and private management, while Rocha confronted the PM with some of his promises in 2024, mainly a GP for every Portuguese, and on taxes, he accused Montenegro of letting people down. Montenegro went on to say that a budget surplus will happen and that he has "trust" in the Portuguese economy's capacity to avoid a recession. Rocha accused the government of "throwing" money at problems and that here, Montenegro is just like the PS;

• Mariana Mortágua (BE) vs Rui Tavares (Livre) - SIC Notícias, 10pm:

A debate where both sides agree that they have few differences, and which Luís Montenegro also "united" them as the PM refused to debate with both. The international situation was the opening topic, with Tavares pointing to the internal and external "convulsion" as Portugal doesn't have a regular election since 2019, and that European unity is crucial to confront the “imperialist” projects of Russia, China and the US. Mortágua defined his party as a "Europeanist party", but criticized the European Commission for its austerity policies, its position on Palestine and the increase in defense spending. On defense, Tavares defended a European community of defense, not dependent on the USA, while Mortágua "tried" again and again to show that her party is not anti-Europe, adding that Livre and BE don't disagree that much, while Tavares wants more defense spending and Mortágua rejects. On wages, both agree on limits on large salaries for CEOs, while workers receive less. Regarding possible deals on the left, Tavares said that the left-wing has more answers to problems than the right-wing, while Mortágua criticized the PS for "wanting" to govern with the support of the PSD, pressing for a left-wing majority;