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Author Topic: 🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 4.0 (Up next: Sep 2025 Local and Jan 2026 Presidential)  (Read 40957 times)
Mike88
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« Reply #600 on: April 04, 2025, 11:55:30 AM »

my take from this is the scandel was bad but the public ((and me)) dont view it as bad enough that a resignation and or new elections were needed is this true?

In part, that take is true. The case became big because of Montenegro's mismanagement of it. He never wanted to explain it or even putting everything on the table, apologizing and so on, and he ultimately lost control of the whole situation. It was the media that controlled the narrative and the damage to Montenegro was already done. The obvious solution to this crisis would be to Montenegro to step aside, with a new PSD Prime Minister being sworn in, and in fact, a plurality of voters in that poll support this, but then the point here is different. Montenegro may be the sole responsible for the crisis, but we ending up in the 3rd election in less than 4 years, is more President Marcelo's fault. He was totally missing in this whole crisis and didn't bother to calm things and be proactive, nothing.


This is so ridiculous (and thus, appropriate for Ventura) that the only surprising thing is that we failed to anticipate it. I suspect it will further weaken CHEGA because it would lose more trust from those who want to stick it to the government than it would gain from those who want to collaborate, but I have been surprised by the party in the past.

In the interview he also raised, no surprise here, the possibility of Passos Coelho returning, who is still a "ghost" that hangs over the political class. I frankly don't know what his plan is, Ventura's that is, but looking at him, it seems that neither he knows what his plan is. This election is so... ugh... forced, that no one knows what will be reaction of the electorate: Anger, apathy or finding a stable solution, like Madeira.
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Mike88
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« Reply #601 on: April 04, 2025, 01:19:47 PM »

Consulmark2 poll for Sol newspaper:

Vote share %:

33.3% AD (+1.2)
25.9% PS (-2.1)
13.5% CHEGA (-3.0)
  8.1% IL (+0.4)
  4.3% Livre (+1.9)
  3.8% BE (+0.4)
  2.5% CDU (-0.7)
  1.4% PAN (+0.8 )
  7.2% Others/Invalid (+1.1)

Q1: Preferred Prime Minister:

42.7% Luís Montenegro (+0.8 )
30.4% Pedro Nuno Santos (+3.0)
  8.4% André Ventura (-3.2)
13.4% No one (-1.1)
  5.1% Undecided (+0.5)

Q2:  Will the Spinumviva case influence the vote in the general election?

54.9% Yes
37.6% No
  7.5% Undecided

Q3: Can Madeira's results influence the general elections?

63.1% No
33.1% Yes
  3.8% Undecided

Q4: Most important issues: (multiple choice)

49.6% NHS/Healthcare
39.3% Housing
22.8% Education
19.0% Inflation/Cost of living
13.7% Political crisis/Spinumviva case
12.0% Corruption
11.1% Immigration
10.3% Insecurity
10.1% Bad quality of politicians
  9.8% Economy
  9.1% Social inequality

Poll conducted between 27 March and 3 April 2025. Polled 583 voters. MoE of 4.00%.
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #602 on: April 04, 2025, 01:30:59 PM »

Consulmark2 poll for Sol newspaper:

Vote share %:

33.3% AD (+1.2)
25.9% PS (-2.1)
13.5% CHEGA (-3.0)
  8.1% IL (+0.4)
  4.3% Livre (+1.9)
  3.8% BE (+0.4)
  2.5% CDU (-0.7)
  1.4% PAN (+0.8 )
  7.2% Others/Invalid (+1.1)

Q1: Preferred Prime Minister:

42.7% Luís Montenegro (+0.8 )
30.4% Pedro Nuno Santos (+3.0)
  8.4% André Ventura (-3.2)
13.4% No one (-1.1)
  5.1% Undecided (+0.5)

Q2:  Will the Spinumviva case influence the vote in the general election?

54.9% Yes
37.6% No
  7.5% Undecided

Q3: Can Madeira's results influence the general elections?

63.1% No
33.1% Yes
  3.8% Undecided

Q4: Most important issues: (multiple choice)

49.6% NHS/Healthcare
39.3% Housing
22.8% Education
19.0% Inflation/Cost of living
13.7% Political crisis/Spinumviva case
12.0% Corruption
11.1% Immigration
10.3% Insecurity
10.1% Bad quality of politicians
  9.8% Economy
  9.1% Social inequality

Poll conducted between 27 March and 3 April 2025. Polled 583 voters. MoE of 4.00%.
AD: 101
PS: 71
CH: 30
IL: 15
L: 7
BE: 4
CDU: 2
PAN: 0
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Mike88
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« Reply #603 on: April 04, 2025, 04:20:46 PM »

AD: 101
PS: 71
CH: 30
IL: 15
L: 7
BE: 4
CDU: 2
PAN: 0

This seat projection would give AD+IL = 116 seats, the bare minimum for a majority. But, call me pessimistic, I doubt this will be the result. The campaign will tell, but I am not confident that any stable solution will emerge from this election. At the same time, I hope I will be proven wrong and we will have some kind of clarification, whether it be a strong victory for the AD or the PS, because the country cannot continue like this, especially with what may lie ahead in the economic front. (now I understand our Israeli and Bulgarian posters)
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Mike88
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« Reply #604 on: April 04, 2025, 06:08:05 PM »
« Edited: April 04, 2025, 06:52:55 PM by Mike88 »

A few other updates:

• It's tax returns time and there's already a controversy: Many taxpayers are finding out that they are receiving little, none or even have to pay back refunds to the State. Many are being surprised by this, but warnings were made back in September 2024. Because there were two income tax cuts in 2024, one in the PS 2024 budget and another forced by the AD minority government, but that in the end it was actually the PS proposal that was approved, with the help of CHEGA, the State returned to taxpayers the extra money collected since January. This meant that, after the summer of 2024, wages "increased" a lot because of this return, in some cases up to 20%. But, this also meant that, in 2025, taxpayers would receive less or no refunds. And that's what is happening. The government says that taxpayers are not being hurt, as they still paid less tax, while the PS accuses the government of "tricks" and of "hidden taxes";

• The PS lists again, because there's a new controversy: Pedro Nuno Santos picked a rapper, called Eva RapDiva, for the 8th place in the Lisbon district list, an easily electable place. But, a past video of her, freestyling, shows her singing about the war in Ukraine:

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ZkI-t4NWj3c

In the video, she sings the following:
Quote
I'm African, I don't give a s**t about the war in Ukraine. These guys should kill each other like we killed each other. They don't care about us, so we don't care. I know that if this gets on the internet, many will start talking badly about it. But it's not up to me to please everyone. Not even Christ did that. Whoever wants to criticize me, I'll say 'Christ, go to the trash'. But it's not about Christ, He is my divinity. I'm on the mic just killing it with my creativity. Because I am a darling, I am a woman of faith, but it is thanks to my work that I am still standing today.

This is creating some controvesy, as it follows the recent "abrupt" departure of Sérgio Sousa Pinto also from the Lisbon list, and has become viral on social media. In reaction, Eva RapDiva said that she was just doing improv rap and that the lyrics do not represent her political views, pressing that she's against "Putin's imperialism and Donald Trump's irrational policies";

• And CHEGA, as the party faced another controversy: It was revealed that a high ranking member of the party, the deputy chair of the party's tribunal, is currently on trial for fraud and document forgery, in which she's accused of defrauding a former partner by forging the signature of a dead woman. Ventura was caught off guard with this revelation, but, today, she was sacked from her post in the party. Plus, despite accusing PSD and PS of corruption and promissing to not ran candidates with legal problems, Ventura seems to also be retracting this position, now saying that CHEGA lists could have candidates that are suspects and/or convicted in a Court of law, if the crimes aren't very serious;
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Mike88
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« Reply #605 on: April 05, 2025, 05:58:41 AM »

Well, 6 weeks until election day and there are no changes in the seat distribution by district:

The seat distribution by district has no changes compared with 2024. The Electoral Commission presented the official distribution of seats, 2 weeks ago, and revealed that there are a total of 10,850,615 registered voters: 9,266,116 in Portugal alone and 1,584,499 overseas. The final seat distribution by district is the following:

    5 Azores
  16 Aveiro
    3 Beja
  19 Braga
    3 Bragança
    4 Castelo Branco
    9 Coimbra
    3 Évora
    9 Faro
    3 Guarda
  10 Leiria
  48 Lisbon
    6 Madeira
    2 Portalegre
  40 Porto
    9 Santarém
  19 Setúbal
    5 Viana do Castelo
    5 Vila Real
    8 Viseu
    2 Europe
    2 Outside Europe

230 Total

The system used to elect MPs is the D'hondt method and there's no official threshold to win seats
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #606 on: April 05, 2025, 08:56:45 AM »

Well, 6 weeks until election day and there are no changes in the seat distribution by district:

The seat distribution by district has no changes compared with 2024. The Electoral Commission presented the official distribution of seats, 2 weeks ago, and revealed that there are a total of 10,850,615 registered voters: 9,266,116 in Portugal alone and 1,584,499 overseas. The final seat distribution by district is the following:

    5 Azores
  16 Aveiro
    3 Beja
  19 Braga
    3 Bragança
    4 Castelo Branco
    9 Coimbra
    3 Évora
    9 Faro
    3 Guarda
  10 Leiria
  48 Lisbon
    6 Madeira
    2 Portalegre
  40 Porto
    9 Santarém
  19 Setúbal
    5 Viana do Castelo
    5 Vila Real
    8 Viseu
    2 Europe
    2 Outside Europe

230 Total

The system used to elect MPs is the D'hondt method and there's no official threshold to win seats
what is used to award seat titles the?
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Mike88
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« Reply #607 on: April 05, 2025, 09:42:20 AM »

what is used to award seat titles the?

Like I wrote in the post, the D'hondt method. It's a closed list system also.
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« Reply #608 on: April 05, 2025, 11:36:13 AM »

Like Spain, the effective threshold to obtain seats in most constituencies is quite high. A party polling less than ~13% nationally will win less seats than their vote share suggests. This is a system designed to favor the big 2 parties (PS & PSD).
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Mike88
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« Reply #609 on: April 05, 2025, 02:28:44 PM »
« Edited: April 05, 2025, 02:33:49 PM by Mike88 »

The Socialist Party unveiled their manifesto this afternoon:

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:t6xm4zrxilskfwjta2x7lu56/post/3lm3aynlqwi27
Quote
The Nest egg Program is copied from the Livre proposal in the OE2025. Minimum wage target increased by 110 euros compared to the 2024 election program.

PS leader Pedro Nuno Santos unveiled, this Saturday afternoon, the party's election manifesto for the 18 May early elections. In his speech, the PS leader outlined the party's main policies for the campaign, from 0% VAT on essential goods, minimum wage increase and tax cuts. Pedro Nuno Santos also accused the Prime Minister of not having any "suitability" to remain in office, adding that he's "incompetent" and wasting public money in propaganda stunts. In summary, the main policies in the manifesto:

• Permament 0% VAT on essential goods;
• VAT cuts in energy bills;
• Minimum wage increase, reaching 1,110 euros in 2029;
• 50% increase in family allowance, for children between 3 and 6 years old, at all income levels;
• A "Nest egg" program, in which newborns will be given 500 euros in savings certificates;
• Dental and mental healthcare to become basic care in the NHS;
• Rent supports;
• Use of part of the profits of the state owned bank, CGD, to finance housing construction;
• Cut of the IUC, "car tax";
• Reduction of working hours per week to 37,5 hours for all workers, private and public;
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Mike88
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« Reply #610 on: April 06, 2025, 10:00:31 AM »
« Edited: April 06, 2025, 11:10:42 AM by Mike88 »

CHEGA, regarding the Le Pen case, is just saying two different things at once: Ventura has criticized the justice system for using ineligibility as a way to remove political opponents, and that justice should not replace democracy. At the same time, Ventura decided to put Le Pen and Luís Montenegro "in the same bag", adding that if someone is suspected of misappropriation of public funds, they should not run for public office.

Awkward? Le Pen uses Ventura as an example of polticians investigated:

Ventura may have been "vague" and contradictory regarding Le Pen's verdict, but she, this weekend, used Ventura as an example for her defense. In a speech at the Italian Lega party congress, she said that there is an "attempted manipulation" across Europe and pointed, as examples, the investigations around André Ventura's and Matteo Salvini's parties.
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Mike88
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« Reply #611 on: April 07, 2025, 01:20:55 PM »
« Edited: April 09, 2025, 08:22:04 PM by Mike88 »

Last day to submit lists of candidates:

Head list candidates, by district: CH - CHEGA

Azores: Francisco Meneses de Lima, incumbent member of the Azorean Parliament;
Aveiro: Pedro Frazão, incumbent MP;
Beja: Rui Cristina, incumbent MP;
Braga: Filipe Melo, incumbent MP;
Bragança: José Mário Mesquita, former CDS member;
Castelo Branco: João Ribeiro, incumbent MP;
Coimbra: Paulo Seco
Évora: Jorge Galveias, incumbent MP;
Faro: Pedro Pinto, incumbent MP, party's caucus leader;
Guarda: Nuno Simões de Melo, incumbent MP;
Leiria: Mithá Ribeiro, incumbent MP;
Lisbon: André Ventura, party leader and incumbent MP;
Madeira: Francisco Gomes, incumbent MP;
Portalegre: João Aleixo
Porto: Rui Afonso, incumbent MP;
Santarém: Pedro Correia, incumbent MP;
Setúbal: Rita Matias, incumbent MP;
Viana do Castelo: Eduardo Teixeira, incumbent MP;
Vila Real: Manuela Tender, incumbent MP;
Viseu: João Tilly, incumbent MP;
Europe: José Dias Fernandes, incumbent MP;
Outside Europe: Manuel Magno, incumbent MP;

2 female head lists (9%) vs 20 male head lists (91%)

Head list candidates, by district: L - Livre

Azores: Ricardo Ribeiro
Aveiro: Filipe Honório
Beja: Fausto Fialho
Braga: Teresa Mota, party's co-spokesperson;
Bragança: Anabela Correia
Castelo Branco: Joana Alves Pereira
Coimbra: André Chichorro Carvalho
Évora: Glória Franco
Faro: Carla Carmo
Guarda: Margarida Bordalo
Leiria: Inês Pires
Lisbon: Rui Tavares, party leader and incumbent MP;
Madeira: Marta Sofia
Portalegre: João Ramos
Porto: Jorge Pinto, incumbent MP;
Santarém: Natércia Lopes
Setúbal: Paulo Muacho, incumbent MP;
Viana do Castelo: João Puig
Vila Real: Luís Ramalho
Viseu: Miguel Won
Europe: Mafalda Dâmaso
Outside Europe: Manuel Brito-Semedo

9 female head lists (41%) vs 13 male head lists (59%)

Head list candidates, by district: PAN - People-Animals-Nature

Azores: Dinarte Pimentel
Aveiro: Ana Gonçalves
Beja: Luís Coentro
Braga: Tiago Teixeira
Bragança: Octávio Pires
Castelo Branco: Paul Summers
Coimbra: João Fontes da Costa
Évora: Sérgio Neves
Faro: Saúl Rosa
Guarda: João Almeida
Leiria: Rodrigo Andrade
Lisbon: Inês Sousa Real, party leader and incumbent MP;
Madeira: Válter Ramos
Portalegre: Telma Espírito Santo
Porto: Alexandre Trindade
Santarém: Vera Matos
Setúbal: Mariana Crespo
Viana do Castelo: Isabel Rhodes
Vila Real: Rui Almeida
Viseu: No candidates
Europe: Paulo Vieira de Castro
Outside Europe: Nelson Abreu

6 female head lists (27%) vs 15 male head lists (68%)

Also, for the first time in democracy, the leaders of the two main parties, PSD and PS, coincide as candidates in a district other than Lisbon: Montenegro and Nuno Santos will both be candidates from Aveiro district. After submitting his list to the local Court in Aveiro, Luís Montenegro refused any post-election deals with either the PS or CHEGA, pressing that he wants a "majority" and will only continue as PM if he's the most voted in the election. In the same Court, PS leader Pedro Nuno Santos told reporters he wants a concentration of votes in the PS, to defeat the AD coalition, and to end the climate of suspicion around the Prime Minister's office.
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Mike88
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« Reply #612 on: April 07, 2025, 05:51:09 PM »
« Edited: April 14, 2025, 06:09:19 PM by Mike88 »

And the "tsunami" of debates began:

Luís Montenegro (AD) vs Paulo Raimundo (CDU) - TVI, 9pm.

The debate was "cordial", however, Montenegro's business all but dominated the 31-minute debate. Paulo Raimudo started the debate pointing that this election is only happening because of the PM's family business, adding that Montenegro should have resigned and give a "real contribution" to democracy, also saying that the PM was in a clear situation of incompatibility. Montenegro refused the accusations, saying that, in ethical terms, his conduct was clean and that it's a lie that he enjoyed benefits from any company already as Prime Minister. Raimundo accused the PM of a "forward escape" and of now playing the "victim card". Then, the discussion went to taxes, mainly corporate taxes, with Raimundo criticizing the cuts supported by AD, saying that the money "lost" would help to pay hospitals and daycare centers, while Montenegro argued that the revenue will increase in 2025. On defense, Raimundo rejected spending increases, while Montenegro said that increase in defense spending is necessary, but that it cannot harm the welfare state, also pressing for the defense of Ukraine and democracy. The debate ended with Raimundo asking Montenegro to "reconsider" his position of not attending some debates, but Montenegro only gave him a "smile";

André Ventura (CHEGA) vs Inês Sousa Real (PAN) - RTP3, 10pm.




The debate started with the topic of violence against women. Ventura accused the left-wing parties of treating women only like "objects", adding that CHEGA proposed several law to harden penalties for crimes against women, and that parties like PAN didn't support. Sousa Real accused Ventura of lying to people, pressing that PAN has passed several bills in defense of women, accusing CHEGA, and its MPs, of only "making noise", with Ventura defending chemical castration for sex offenders. On the topic of immigration, Ventura says it is "out of control", saying that Portugal is becoming a "muddle", adding that immigrants that want to work can come, but those who just want to ask subsidies to not come. Sousa Real pointed that we need to understand why peope feel unsafe, and refused Ventura's accusation that PAN is just a PS "crutch". Ventura accused PAN of support Madeira's Miguel Albuquerque corruption, but then, Ventura talked about animal rights, saying that no one loves more animals than he does, with Sousa Real questioning Ventura on how much he supports animals associations. On post-election scenarios, Ventura pressed on his "new stance" of talking with Montenegro only if he's transparent, while Sousa Real argued that people are "upset" for going again to the ballot box and said that CHEGA needs to stop lying and and use people's indignation opportunistically.
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Battista Minola
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« Reply #613 on: April 08, 2025, 05:51:15 AM »

Are you going to watch every single debate for us, Mike? I don't envy you...
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Mike88
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« Reply #614 on: April 08, 2025, 06:14:07 AM »
« Edited: April 08, 2025, 06:05:04 PM by Mike88 »

Are you going to watch every single debate for us, Mike? I don't envy you...

I actually didn't watched either of them. Just read the summary of them on SIC Notícias. Cool To be perfectly honest, I'm not sure I'll see any of them.
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Mike88
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« Reply #615 on: April 08, 2025, 05:35:51 PM »
« Edited: April 08, 2025, 06:10:13 PM by Mike88 »

Today's debates:

Pedro Nuno Santos (PS) vs Mariana Mortágua (BE) - SIC, 9pm:




(I actually watched a bit of this debate) If Mortágua thought that the debate would be the basis for a kind of "left-wing alternative", Pedro Nuno Santos basically said "no, thank you". The debate started with defense, with PNS proposing a progressive increase in spending, without harming the welfare state, while Mortágua criticzed Nuno Santos for wanting to spend in weapons, rather than in housing, NHS, and so on. In response, the PNS limited itself to saying that Mortágua's position is that of someone who has no chance of having governmental responsibilities. On housing, Nuno Santos "defended" his tenure as Infrastructure minister under Costa, saying that the houses inaugurated by Montenegro were started by him as a minister and that Portugal needs to construct more and more. Mortágua, once again, critcized PNS' proposal of more construction. Regarding the Trump tariffs, Nuno Santos criticized the government for "not acting on time" and defended an industry protection policy, with Portugal finding new trading partners, while Mortágua defended polices to financially support companies. On post-election scenarios, Mortágua said she's open with a deal with the PS, but Nuno Santos seemed to "close that door", implying that he would only govern if he's the most voted and asking voters to concentrate their votes on the PS, avoiding spreading votes in the smaller left-wing parties;

André Ventura (CHEGA) vs Rui Tavares (Livre) - RTP3, 10pm:




The debate started with Ventura emphasizing the immigration numbers, having been revealed today that the immigrant population in Portugal amounts to almost 1,6 million, and pointed that this number is one of the reasons the NHS is under pressure, calling it an "open bar". Rui Tavares defended more supports in order to keep health professionals in Portugal and criticized the recent policy of not allowing foreigners to be treated in the NHS. On taxes, Ventura accused the PS of "stealing" from them the 0% VAT on basic goods, while Tavares decided to point out that Ventura lies a lot. Tavares then proposed a social inheritance policy, in which each baby would be given 5,000 euros, but Ventura labeled this as "subsidy dependence". On election outcomes, Tavares said that stablity can only be found on the left, and asked for votes in Livre, while Ventura "ignored" Tavares by saying that his goal is to be Prime Minister, while Tavares is only fighting to get "3 or 4 MPs". Ventura then said this: He wants to "Make Portugal great again" and gave his full support to Trump's tariffs, while Tavares argued that Europe needs to strengthen itself in the face of "threats to democracy", and that Ventura is on Trump's side;
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« Reply #616 on: April 08, 2025, 07:17:07 PM »
« Edited: April 10, 2025, 02:09:47 AM by Ma jebite se, Dvadesete »

Today's debates:




Ventura then said this: He wants to "Make Portugal great again" and gave his full support to Trump's tariffs, while Tavares argued that Europe needs to strengthen itself in the face of "threats to democracy", and that Ventura is on Trump's side;

That... can't be super popular, right? Granted it's probably more split among CH voters but like, probably still not overwhelming support for this among them?
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« Reply #617 on: April 09, 2025, 04:15:51 AM »
« Edited: April 10, 2025, 02:11:07 AM by Ma jebite se, Dvadesete »

Today's debates:



Ventura then said this: He wants to "Make Portugal great again" and gave his full support to Trump's tariffs, while Tavares argued that Europe needs to strengthen itself in the face of "threats to democracy", and that Ventura is on Trump's side;

That... can't be super popular, right? Granted it's probably more split among CH voters but like, probably still not overwhelming support for this among them?
ad and IL are celebrating
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Mike88
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« Reply #618 on: April 09, 2025, 05:55:56 AM »

That... can't be super popular, right? Granted it's probably more split among CH voters but like, probably still not overwhelming support for this among them?
ad and IL are celebrating

So far, the media isn't picking up these remarks and hammering them, but, this is further proof that there is no strategy in CHEGA's campaign. I mean, in a country where Trump is as popular as Covid, Ventura says this? Madness, I say.

(Also, guys, when quoting, don't quote the whole post, just the part you want, as it becomes difficult to read. Thanks Smiley )
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Mike88
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« Reply #619 on: April 09, 2025, 08:25:35 AM »
« Edited: April 09, 2025, 12:18:38 PM by Mike88 »

Parties/coalitions running in the 18 May 2025 general election:

Districts running; Abbreviation; Name; Political position

22 ADN - National Democratic Alternative, far-right
22 BE - Left Bloc, leftwing
22 CH - CHEGA, far-right
22 E - Rise Up, far-right
22 IL - Liberal Initiative, center-right
10 JPP - Together for the People, center
22 L - Livre, center-left
  2 MPT - Earth Party, center-right (only in Azores and Madeira)
  8 NC - We, the Citizens, center-right
13 ND - New Right, rightwing
21 PAN - People-Animals-Nature, center-left
22 PCP-PEV - Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), leftwing
10 PCTP/MRPP - Portuguese Workers' Communist Party, far-left/maoism
  5 PLS - Liberal Social Party, center-right
21 PPD/PSD.CDS-PP - AD - PSD/CDS Coalition, center-right
  1 PPD/PSD.CDS-PP.PPM - PSD/CDS/PPM Coalition, center-right (only in Azores)
21 PPM - People's Monarchist Party, right-wing
22 PS - Socialist Party, center-left
  1 PTP - Portuguese Labour Party, center-left (only in Madeira)
22 RIR - React, Include, Recycle, syncretic
20 VP - Volt Portugal, center-left
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #620 on: April 09, 2025, 09:37:54 AM »
« Edited: April 09, 2025, 09:53:02 AM by CumbrianLefty »

That... can't be super popular, right? Granted it's probably more split among CH voters but like, probably still not overwhelming support for this among them?
ad and IL are celebrating

So far, the media isn't picking up these remarks and hammering them, but, this is further proof that there is no strategy in CHEGA's campaign. I mean, in a country where Trump is as popular as Covid, Ventura says this? Madness, I say.

(Also, guys, when quoting, don't quote the whole post, just the part you want, as it becomes difficult to read. Thanks Smiley )

As with most European countries there is still a minority "core" of mostly hard right pro-Trump voters, and thus Ventura was maybe shoring up his base here.

I do note that CHEGA were down 3 points in the latest poll, however.....
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crals
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« Reply #621 on: April 09, 2025, 12:10:25 PM »

Ventura is already disapproved of by roughly 80% of voters, those remarks probably won't sink him much lower.
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Mike88
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« Reply #622 on: April 09, 2025, 12:24:44 PM »

As with most European countries there is still a minority "core" of mostly hard right pro-Trump voters, and thus Ventura was maybe shoring up his base here.

I do note that CHEGA were down 3 points in the latest poll, however.....

Ventura is already disapproved of by roughly 80% of voters, those remarks probably won't sink him much lower.

The big question about CHEGA is turnout, turnout, turnout. The large increase in voters last year clearly benefited CHEGA, but if this turns out to be a low-turnout election, Ventura could be the most affected. Sure, he is extremely unpopular, but the question is whether this confusing strategy will alienate voters from his own base.
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Mike88
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« Reply #623 on: April 09, 2025, 04:42:09 PM »

Just one debate today.

Paulo Raimundo (CDU) vs Rui Tavares (Livre) - SIC Notícias, 6pm:

A boring debate, during the late afternoon because there was a football game during the evening. The debate started with the war in Ukraine, with Tavares accusing Raimundo of being a "denier" regarding Putin, and that words will not solve the situation. Raimundo then gave a "weird" response by saying that "in essence" he's against the Putin regime, but that Portugal is not a "province" of either the EU or NATO. On housing, both agreed in rent controls and extend contracts, with Tavares defending an extra tax on luxury real estate. On post-election scenarios, Tavares criticized the PS for its "tactical voting" strategy and that goal should be to forge a majority with "cohesion and coherence", while Raimundo said that PCP and Livre are "neighbors" adding that the Communists will always fight "right-wing policies";
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VPH
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« Reply #624 on: April 09, 2025, 05:37:50 PM »

Parties/coalitions running in the 18 May 2025 general election:

Districts running; Abbreviation; Name; Political position

22 ADN - National Democratic Alternative, far-right
22 BE - Left Bloc, leftwing
22 CH - CHEGA, far-right
22 E - Rise Up, far-right
22 IL - Liberal Initiative, center-right
10 JPP - Together for the People, center
22 L - Livre, center-left
  2 MPT - Earth Party, center-right (only in Azores and Madeira)
  8 NC - We, the Citizens, center-right
13 ND - New Right, rightwing
21 PAN - People-Animals-Nature, center-left
22 PCP-PEV - Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), leftwing
10 PCTP/MRPP - Portuguese Workers' Communist Party, far-left/maoism
  5 PLS - Liberal Social Party, center-right
21 PPD/PSD.CDS-PP - AD - PSD/CDS Coalition, center-right
  1 PPD/PSD.CDS-PP.PPM - PSD/CDS/PPM Coalition, center-right (only in Azores)
21 PPM - People's Monarchist Party, right-wing
22 PS - Socialist Party, center-left
  1 PTP - Portuguese Labour Party, center-left (only in Madeira)
22 RIR - React, Include, Recycle, syncretic
20 VP - Volt Portugal, center-left

Surprised PPM has managed to put up 21 districts worth of candidates and is running separately.
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