🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 4.0 (Up next: Sep 2025 Local and Jan 2026 Presidential)

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

Is ps eating uo thrncommunist and be vote?

I think he's asking if the PS is "eating up" the PCP and BE vote. I don't think so, the PS vote looks stagnant, while the "drain" of votes from PCP and BE continue. IMO, PCP votes seem to be going either to CHEGA or just dying out, while BE, which had a solid young voter base, seems to be losing votes to CHEGA and IL.

Where is L gaining support from? It does seem they've very modestly improved their vote share if polls are accurate. At least looking at Intercampus.

Ah Livre, yes. I was thinking about them while I was writting the reply but then I forgot about them. My mistake. Hmm.. I see Livre as a party which attracts "embarassed" left-wing voters, meaning: Voters who feel PCP is "outdated", BE is just "cringe" and the PS is "awkward", so they vote Livre. They're mostly urban, relatively young (20 to 40s) and highly educated. I would say that these voters either supported PS or BE in past elections.

funny enough I'd probably be among them.

[VPH]

I have a great-uncle who likes Livre and is a retired university professor living in Cascais. Checks out!

[#UnbanTender]

What kind of voter goes from Chega to Portuguese FDP though?

[crals]

What kind of voter goes from Chega to Portuguese FDP though?

Young males who look up to a certain kind of influencers. Both parties are very right-wing and anti-PS/socialism/progressivism, although IL is more focused on economics ("the grind") and Chega on culture wars ("wokeness").

[Mike88]

What kind of voter goes from Chega to Portuguese FDP though?

Young males who look up to a certain kind of influencers. Both parties are very right-wing and anti-PS/socialism/progressivism, although IL is more focused on economics ("the grind") and Chega on culture wars ("wokeness").

Also, some voters may have become disappointed with the "negative opposition" of CHEGA, in which the party is not part of a solution and always a blockade. Voters who wanted CHEGA to form some kind of deal with PSD, but feel the party has no such intention, so they decide to vote IL, who has a more moderate approach to the PSD, and is willing to dialogue.

I have a great-uncle who likes Livre and is a retired university professor living in Cascais. Checks out!

Yes, forgot also to point college professionals support. Here, BE had also a strong base, but now, Livre may be stronger.

so the left wing Verizon of the liberals speaking of them if the numbers add up for a ad liberals deal will one happened maybe a coalition of the liberals hold the number of sets to justifed it?

Pretty much, yeah. You mean a pre-election coalition? If so, not a chance. After the elections, IL has suggested that they are "open" to discuss possible deals with AD.

post election with cabinet positions

It's a possibility. However, here CDS would be a problem, as they are scared of being "replaced" by the Liberals and could create headaches to the PSD in a possible coalition/parliamentary deal.

[Mike88]

Head list candidates, by district: IL - Liberal Initiative

Azores: Hugo Almeida, IL-Azores leader;
Aveiro: Mário Amorim Lopes, incumbent MP;
Beja: Generosa Brito
Braga: Rui Rocha, IL leader, incumbent MP;
Bragança: Nuno Monteiro Fernandes
Castelo Branco: Manuel Lemos
Coimbra: Catarina Graveto
Évora: Rodrigo Mendonça
Faro: Daniel Viegas
Guarda: Rui Abreu
Leiria: André Abrantes Amaral
Lisbon: Mariana Leitão, incumbent MP, 2026 Presidential candidate;
Madeira: João Côrte Fernandes
Portalegre: Francisco Biscaya Cardoso
Porto: Carlos Guimarães Pinto, incumbent MP;
Santarém: Afonso Neves
Setúbal: Joana Cordeiro, incumbent MP;
Viana do Castelo: Hugo Joel Pereira
Vila Real: Joana Ferreira
Viseu: João Antas de Barros
Europe: Ana Moura
Outside Europe: Christian Hohn

6 female head lists (27%) vs 16 male head lists (73%)

[Mike88]

CHEGA, regarding the Le Pen case, is just saying two different things at once: Ventura has criticized the justice system for using ineligibility as a way to remove political opponents, and that justice should not replace democracy. At the same time, Ventura decided to put Le Pen and Luís Montenegro "in the same bag", adding that if someone is suspected of misappropriation of public funds, they should not run for public office.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll for TVI/CNN Portugal, JN newspaper and TSF radio:

Vote share %:

34.4% AD (+0.9)
27.8% PS (-1.0)
14.9% CHEGA (+1.4)
  6.0% IL (-0.7)
  5.5% Livre (+2.8 )
  3.4% CDU (+0.4)
  2.7% BE (-0.2)
  0.5% PAN (-1.4)
  4.8% Others/Invalid (-2.2)

Poll conducted between 24 and 29 March 2025. Polled 1,000 voters. MoE of 3.16%.

[Mike88]

In campaign news:

The new name: "AD - Democratic Alliance - PSD/CDS". I want to see how many people will confuse this with ADN on election day. (And if PPM will not "freak out")

• Constitutional Court "says no". The Court rejected the PSD/CDS' new name for the elections. The ruling, written by a PS appointed judge, says that the continuation of the "AD - Democratic Alliance" name would confuse voters, leading them to believe that PPM was still part of the coalition. This ruling, however, divided the Court, and it passed only by a narrow majority. PSD/CDS can still appeal this decision, or, propose a new name. To the media, the coalition says it is analyzing the Court's ruling;

• Former finance minister and Lisbon mayor, Fernando Medina, announced he will refuse being a candidate in the PS' lists for the May election. In a statement to the media, Medina said he refuses being a candidate for the elections, citing personal reasons, adding he has informed the party's leader, but that he's "committed" in a PS victory. Medina was the sole PS MP who publicly criticized his own party for not avoiding an election and for embarking in a "campaign of accusations" against Montenegro;

(...)The question is now if TV networks will stick with the one-on-one debates, or present a new format;

• The world changes, but nothing changes in Portugal: TV networks will go ahead with the 28 planned debates, unsure if some will even be broadcast. The debates are expected to last 25-30 minutes, except the PSD vs PS one, the 8-party and the minor parties debates. The timetable:

7 April: PSD vs CDU (TVI) - 9pm
7 April: CHEGA vs PAN (RTP3) - 10pm

8 April: PS vs BE (SIC) - 9pm
8 April: CHEGA vs Livre (RTP3) - 10pm

9 April: CDU vs Livre (SIC Notícias) - 6pm

10 April: PS vs IL (RTP1) - 9pm
10 April: BE vs PAN (CNN Portugal) - 10pm

11 April: CDS vs Livre (TVI) - 9pm
11 April: IL vs CDU (SIC Notícias) - 10pm

12 April: PS vs PAN (TVI) - 9pm
11 April: BE vs CDU (RTP3) - 10pm

13 April: CDS vs PAN (SIC) - 9pm
13 April: IL vs Livre (CNN Portugal) - 10pm

14 April: PSD vs IL (RTP1) - 9pm
14 April: BE vs Livre (SIC Notícias) - 10pm

15 April: PS vs CHEGA (TVI) - 9pm
15 April: IL vs PAN (SIC Notícias) - 10pm

16 April: CDS vs BE (RTP1) - 9pm
16 April: CHEGA vs CDU (CNN Portugal) - 10pm

17 April: PS vs Livre (SIC) - 9pm
17 April: CHEGA vs IL (RTP3) - 10pm

21 April: PS vs CDU (RTP1) - 9pm
21 April: CHEGA vs BE (SIC Notícias) - 10pm

22 April: Livre vs PAN (RTP3) - 6pm

23 April: CDU vs PAN (CNN Portugal) - 6pm

24 April: PSD vs CHEGA (SIC) - 9pm
21 April: IL vs BE (CNN Portugal) - 10pm

28 April: PSD vs PS (RTP1, SIC, TVI) - 9pm

5 May: 8-party leaders radio debate (Observador, Antena1, TSF, Renascença) - 9:30am

6 May: 8-party leaders debate (RTP1) - 9pm

8 May: Minor parties debate (RTP1) - 9pm

I... I need a drink...

[Flyersfan232]

Pitagórica poll for TVI/CNN Portugal, JN newspaper and TSF radio:

Vote share %:

34.4% AD (+0.9)
27.8% PS (-1.0)
14.9% CHEGA (+1.4)
  6.0% IL (-0.7)
  5.5% Livre (+2.8 )
  3.4% CDU (+0.4)
  2.7% BE (-0.2)
  0.5% PAN (-1.4)
  4.8% Others/Invalid (-2.2)

Poll conducted between 24 and 29 March 2025. Polled 1,000 voters. MoE of 3.16%.

Seat Distribution

AD: 98
PS: 73
CH: 34
IL: 9
L: 9
CDU: 5
BE: 2
PAN: 0

[Flyersfan232]

Pitagórica poll for TVI/CNN Portugal, JN newspaper and TSF radio:

Vote share %:

34.4% AD (+0.9)
27.8% PS (-1.0)
14.9% CHEGA (+1.4)
  6.0% IL (-0.7)
  5.5% Livre (+2.8 )
  3.4% CDU (+0.4)
  2.7% BE (-0.2)
  0.5% PAN (-1.4)
  4.8% Others/Invalid (-2.2)

Poll conducted between 24 and 29 March 2025. Polled 1,000 voters. MoE of 3.16%.

Seat Distribution

AD: 98
PS: 73
CH: 34
IL: 9
L: 9
CDU: 5
BE: 2
PAN: 0

also thank you for your unbias coverage mike doing a great job!

[Mike88]

Seat Distribution

AD: 98
PS: 73
CH: 34
IL: 9
L: 9
CDU: 5
BE: 2
PAN: 0

AD+IL - 107, 9 seats short of a majority;
PS+L+CDU+BE - 89, miles from a majority, but...

PS+CH+L+CDU+BE - 123

This scenario would "strengthen" PSD/CDS but, it they would still be dependent on the moods of PS and especially CHEGA, with the support of the minor left-wing parties, so, any crisis would create a new stalemate. To be honest, I'm not sure if we should trust polling. Yes, they did a good job in the EP and Madeira elections, but, for example, this Pitagórica poll has weird crosstabs: PS leading in young voters and AD in elderly voters. Not sure if I can believe this.

Plus, we already have the "bad blood" between PSD and PS in the public arena, with both sides not very keen in saying if they would support each other, whoever wins. A PSD defeat, would mean a new leadership, open or not to CHEGA?, and trigger an internal war. And the same can be said about the PS.

also thank you for your unbias coverage mike doing a great job!

Thanks for the feedback

[Mike88]

"Goodbye" Gonçalo da Câmara Pereira: PPM picks their Azorean leader, Paulo Estevão, as the party's main candidate for the 18 May general election.

After "breaking up" with PSD and CDS, PPM has announced that they have nominated, unanimously, the PPM-Azores leader, Paulo Estevão, as the party's main candidate for the general election, thus ditching long time leader Gonçalo da Câmara Pereira. Estevão is the famous Corvo island regional MP, which has been elected in every regional election in the Azores since 2008. In 2020, he, alongside PSD and CDS Azores, formed a minority coalition government, with the confidence and supply of CHEGA and IL, ending 24 years of Socialist rule in the Azores. He ran in a coalition with PSD and CDS in the 2024 Azorean regional election. He's currently secretary for communities and parliamentary affairs in the Azorean government.

(...)PSD/CDS can still appeal this decision, or, propose a new name. To the media, the coalition says it is analyzing the Court's ruling;

Regarding the "coalition name thing", the PSD and CDS will convene their national councils, tomorrow, to make a decision, appeal or a new name. The media is trying to figure out what the decision will be, but so far without success.

[Flyersfan232]

"Goodbye" Gonçalo da Câmara Pereira: PPM picks their Azorean leader, Paulo Estevão, as the party's main candidate for the 18 May general election.

After "breaking up" with PSD and CDS, PPM has announced that they have nominated, unanimously, the PPM-Azores leader, Paulo Estevão, as the party's main candidate for the general election, thus ditching long time leader Gonçalo da Câmara Pereira. Estevão is the famous Corvo island regional MP, which has been elected in every regional election in the Azores since 2008. In 2020, he, alongside PSD and CDS Azores, formed a minority coalition government, with the confidence and supply of CHEGA and IL, ending 24 years of Socialist rule in the Azores. He ran in a coalition with PSD and CDS in the 2024 Azorean regional election. He's currently secretary for communities and parliamentary affairs in the Azorean government.

(...)PSD/CDS can still appeal this decision, or, propose a new name. To the media, the coalition says it is analyzing the Court's ruling;

Regarding the "coalition name thing", the PSD and CDS will convene their national councils, tomorrow, to make a decision, appeal or a new name. The media is trying to figure out what the decision will be, but so far without success.

Forward Portugal?

[Mike88]

Forward Portugal?

Nah, that was the 2004 EP election PSD/CDS coalition name, Força Portugal (Forward Portugal). I think that the goal is to maintain, in some way, the "AD" abbreviation, so, maybe, I don't know, "Democrat Alliance - PSD/CDS"? Or like in the Azores, putting just PSD/CDS on the ballot. They can still appeal, but, we'll see what the decision is.

[Mike88]

Campaign update:

(...)PSD/CDS can still appeal this decision, or, propose a new name. To the media, the coalition says it is analyzing the Court's ruling;

Regarding the "coalition name thing", the PSD and CDS will convene their national councils, tomorrow, to make a decision, appeal or a new name. The media is trying to figure out what the decision will be, but so far without success.

Forward Portugal?

Nah, that was the 2004 EP election PSD/CDS coalition name, Força Portugal (Forward Portugal). I think that the goal is to maintain, in some way, the "AD" abbreviation, so, maybe, I don't know, "Democrat Alliance - PSD/CDS"? Or like in the Azores, putting just PSD/CDS on the ballot. They can still appeal, but, we'll see what the decision is.

• And the new name is... wait for it... AD - PSD/CDS Coalition. It was presented this afternoon, to the media, by the PSD. Asked if they don't fear another "no" from the Constitutional Court, Hugo Soares, PSD secretary-general and caucus leader, rejected that, adding that the ruling was studied by law experts and that there is no confusion to voters with this new name. The PSD also recalled that in 1992, in the regional elections in the Azores, the CDS and the PPM competed in a coalition also called "Democratic Alliance" and that the PSD didn't make any fuss about it;

• In the news is also the rather "weird" cabinet meeting to mark the 1-year anniversary of the PSD/CDS government:

PM's press conference at Bolhão market, Porto city.

To mark the 1-year anniversary of his government, PM Luís Montenegro held a cabinet meeting at... Bolhão market, Porto city. The market is one of the most famous in the country and a hot spot at election campaigns, but, it was also reported that the local PSD-Porto "invited" party members to come to the market to greet the Prime Minister. Asked, by reporters, if he was aware of this, Montenegro said that probably the local party invited people, but he pressed that the cabinet meeting wasn't a "campaign event" and pointed to the policies his government put forward in the last year. This event also "served" as the official announcement of minister Pedro Duarte's candidacy for Porto mayor. The opposition, mainly the PS, is accusing Montenegro of "Orbán style tactics" and accused the PM of spending public money in a "shameful propaganda stunt";

• Also regarding the PM, tabloide stories of his past businesses, work as lawyer, and so on, continue. This time is because of a legal opinion he wrote to a construction company, while he was a lawyer, regarding a major project in Espinho city, project that is now being investigated by the Prosecutor. The follow up story is that Montenegro, allegedly, got a "discount" on cement from that same company when he was building his new house. In a statement, Montenegro denies all the suspicions, citing that the whole project was fiscalized by the Court of Auditors. The PM also pointed to a "campaign of misinformation" by the media and opposition parties;

CHEGA, regarding the Le Pen case, is just saying two different things at once: Ventura has criticized the justice system for using ineligibility as a way to remove political opponents, and that justice should not replace democracy. At the same time, Ventura decided to put Le Pen and Luís Montenegro "in the same bag", adding that if someone is suspected of misappropriation of public funds, they should not run for public office.

• The Le Pen case is creating a "split" in CHEGA: All CHEGA MPs and members have come out "trashing" the justice system and the ban from running for office that the Court imposed on Marine Le Pen, with many saying they support Le Pen no matter what, but here, Ventura looks "out of tune" from the rest of his party. On one hand, he defends Le Pen, but on the other says she should not run for office. Other CHEGA members also do not agree in comparing Montenegro with Le Pen, as Ventura did;

• Also, will post later in the day a summary of what's happening in the PS. There's a lot of tension regarding the lists;

[Mike88]

UCP-CESOP for RTP and Público newspaper:  

Vote share %:

29% AD (-4)
27% PS (-2)
17% CHEGA (-1)
  8% IL (+2)
  5% BE (+1)
  5% Livre (+2)
  3% CDU (nc)
  2% PAN (nc)
  4% Others/Invalid (+2)

Popularity ratings: (between 0 and 20)

10.7 Luís Montenegro (-1.3)
  9.6 Pedro Nuno Santos (-0.8 )
  8.5 Rui Rocha (-0.7)
  8.0 Rui Tavares (-1.0)
  7.7 Nuno Melo (new)
  6.7 Mariana Mortágua (-1.2)
  6.7 Inês Sousa Real (-0.8 )
  6.3 Paulo Raimundo (-0.7)
  6.2 André Ventura (-0.8 )

Government approval:

52% Reasonable (-5)
24% Bad/Very bad (+6)
22% Good/Very good (nc)
  2% Undecided (-1)

Poll conducted bewteen 17 and 26 March 2025. Polled 1,206 votes. MoE of 2.80%.

[Mike88]

• Also, will post later in the day a summary of what's happening in the PS. There's a lot of tension regarding the lists;

The PS approved their list of candidates this evening. However, the process was a bit tense with a lot of issues in many districts: In Aveiro, the list, led by PS leader Pedro Nuno Santos, got 50 votes in favour, but 26 against, a rarity because it's led by the party leader himself; In Braga, the list was outright rejected by district party members, and it had to be the national leadership to make it up; In Coimbra, the party had difficulty in finding someone relevant to lead the list; And in Lisbon, two picks, in eligible places, are creating some controversy: One is a former secretary under PNS that was involved in the TAPgate scandal, and the other is a candidate on trial for corruption.

In summary, head list candidates, by district: PS - Socialist Party

Azores: Francisco César, PS-Azores leader, son of party President Carlos César;
Aveiro: Pedro Nuno Santos, PS leader, incumbent MP;
Beja: Pedro do Carmo, incumbent MP;
Braga: José Luís Carneiro, incumbent MP, former interior minister under Costa;
Bragança: Júlia Rodrigues, mayor of Mirandela municipality;
Castelo Branco: Nuno Fazenda, incumbent MP, former tourism secretary under Costa;
Coimbra: Pedro Delgado Alves, incumbent MP;
Évora: Luís Dias, incumbent MP;
Faro: Jamila Madeira, incumbent MP, former health secretary under Costa;
Guarda: Aida Carvalho
Leiria: Eurico Brilhante Dias, incumbent MP, former caucus leader;
Lisbon: Mariana Vieira da Silva, incumbent MP, former presidency minister under Costa;
Madeira: Emanuel Câmara, mayor of Porto Moniz municipality;
Portalegre: Luís Moreira Testa , former MP;
Porto: Fernando Araújo, former NHS CEO;
Santarém: Marcos Perestrello, incumbent MP, deputy speaker;
Setúbal: António Mendonça Mendes, incumbent MP, former finance secretary under Costa;
Viana do Castelo: Marina Gonçalves, incumbent MP, former housing minister under Costa;
Vila Real: Rui Santos, mayor of Vila Real municipality;
Viseu: Elza País, incumbent MP;
Europe: Emília Ribeiro, maire-adjointe of Les Ulis;
Outside Europe: Vitor Silva

7 female head lists (32%) vs 15 male head lists (68%)

[Mike88]

• Also, will post later in the day a summary of what's happening in the PS. There's a lot of tension regarding the lists;

The PS approved their list of candidates this evening. However, the process was a bit tense with a lot of issues in many districts: (...)

After Medina, another prominent PS member asks to be "removed" from the lists for the election:

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:q4hsszitp2l42iwqgekxk7fm/post/3llvh6swhac2w

Sérgio Sousa Pinto leaves the PS candidate lists

Long time MP, Sérgio Sousa Pinto, who became a critic of the PS in the last few years, and wanted the PS to abstain in the motion of confidence that brought down the AD minority government, asked to be removed from the lists. According to Observador newspaper, Sousa Pinto was actually picked by Pedro Nuno Santos to be on the Lisbon list, but Sousa Pinto refused to be part of the list, citing his disapproval with the names that were chosen for Lisbon.

[Mike88]

• And the new name is... wait for it... AD - PSD/CDS Coalition. It was presented this afternoon, to the media, by the PSD. Asked if they don't fear another "no" from the Constitutional Court, Hugo Soares, PSD secretary-general and caucus leader, rejected that, adding that the ruling was studied by law experts and that there is no confusion to voters with this new name. The PSD also recalled that in 1992, in the regional elections in the Azores, the CDS and the PPM competed in a coalition also called "Democratic Alliance" and that the PSD didn't make any fuss about it;

The Constitutional Court accepted the new name: In a unanimous vote, the Court's judges approved that the designation "AD – PSD/CDS coalition" be on ballot papers for the next 18 May election. The judges emphasize that this new name does not confuse voters with other parties and/or coalitions.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll for TVI/CNN Portugal, JN newspaper and TSF radio on leaders popularity and post election:

Q1: President Marcelo's popularity:

54% Approve (-1)
41% Disapprove (nc)
  5% Undecided (+1)

Q2: Prime Minister Luís Montenegro's popularity:

50% Approve (+3)
44% Disapprove (-2)
  6% Undecided (-1)

Q3: Government's popularity:

59% Approve (-1)
37% Disapprove (+2)
  4% Undecided (-1)

Q4: PS leader Pedro Nuno Santos' popularity:

66% Disapprove (+9)
28% Approve (-7)
  6% Undecided (-2)

Q5: CHEGA leader André Ventura's popularity:

80% Disapprove (+3)
18% Approve (-1)
  2% Undecided (-2)

Q6: The President should accept a minority government or force a deal for a majority government?

71% Force a deal for a majority
23% Accept a minority government
  6% Undecided

Poll conducted between 24 and 29 March 2025. Polled 1,000 voters. MoE of 3.16%.

UCP-CESOP for RTP and Público newspaper on the political crisis:

Q1: Who is responsible for the crisis?

51% Luís Montenegro
20% Pedro Nuno Santos
  5% André Ventura
  4% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
14% Others
  6% Undecided

Q2: Did Montenegro do the right thing by keeping his business in the family?

60% No
32% Yes
  8% Undecided

Q3: Did the government do the right thing by presenting a motion of confidence?

57% No
37% Yes
  6% Undecided

Q4: Did the PS do the right thing by rejecting the motion?

47% Yes
46% No
  7% Undecided

Q5: What would have been the best option to the country?

46% Montenegro's resignation and a new PM
45% Early elections
  9% Undecided

Q6: Which party wanted the most an early election?

39% PS
24% AD
23% CHEGA
  1% Others
13% Undecided

Poll conducted bewteen 17 and 26 March 2025. Polled 1,206 votes. MoE of 2.80%.

[Mike88]

A U-turn or just... whatever?

André Ventura, 12 March: "CHEGA didn't want this Prime Minister to continue and it doesn't make sense to support him in the future."

André Ventura, 3 April: "We could form a coalition with PSD and Montenegro if he explains his business better."

[Mike88]

(...)Will the ongoing stalemate be resolved, or will the islands have another election in 2026?
(...)

Well, two weeks ago, Madeiran voters ended the ongoing stalemate and a new majority coalition government is set to assume office on 15 April. Time to remove Madeira from the title.

[Flyersfan232]

Pitagórica poll for TVI/CNN Portugal, JN newspaper and TSF radio on leaders popularity and post election:

Q1: President Marcelo's popularity:

54% Approve (-1)
41% Disapprove (nc)
  5% Undecided (+1)

Q2: Prime Minister Luís Montenegro's popularity:

50% Approve (+3)
44% Disapprove (-2)
  6% Undecided (-1)

Q3: Government's popularity:

59% Approve (-1)
37% Disapprove (+2)
  4% Undecided (-1)

Q4: PS leader Pedro Nuno Santos' popularity:

66% Disapprove (+9)
28% Approve (-7)
  6% Undecided (-2)

Q5: CHEGA leader André Ventura's popularity:

80% Disapprove (+3)
18% Approve (-1)
  2% Undecided (-2)

Q6: The President should accept a minority government or force a deal for a majority government?

71% Force a deal for a majority
23% Accept a minority government
  6% Undecided

Poll conducted between 24 and 29 March 2025. Polled 1,000 voters. MoE of 3.16%.

UCP-CESOP for RTP and Público newspaper on the political crisis:

Q1: Who is responsible for the crisis?

51% Luís Montenegro
20% Pedro Nuno Santos
  5% André Ventura
  4% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
14% Others
  6% Undecided

Q2: Did Montenegro do the right thing by keeping his business in the family?

60% No
32% Yes
  8% Undecided

Q3: Did the government do the right thing by presenting a motion of confidence?

57% No
37% Yes
  6% Undecided

Q4: Did the PS do the right thing by rejecting the motion?

47% Yes
46% No
  7% Undecided

Q5: What would have been the best option to the country?

46% Montenegro's resignation and a new PM
45% Early elections
  9% Undecided

Q6: Which party wanted the most an early election?

39% PS
24% AD
23% CHEGA
  1% Others
13% Undecided

Poll conducted bewteen 17 and 26 March 2025. Polled 1,206 votes. MoE of 2.80%.

my take from this is the scandel was bad but the public ((and me)) dont view it as bad enough that a resignation and or new elections were needed is this true?

[25 Abril/Aprile Sempre!]

A U-turn or just... whatever?

André Ventura, 12 March: "CHEGA didn't want this Prime Minister to continue and it doesn't make sense to support him in the future."

André Ventura, 3 April: "We could form a coalition with PSD and Montenegro if he explains his business better."

This is so ridiculous (and thus, appropriate for Ventura) that the only surprising thing is that we failed to anticipate it. I suspect it will further weaken CHEGA because it would lose more trust from those who want to stick it to the government than it would gain from those who want to collaborate, but I have been surprised by the party in the past.