🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 4.0 (Up next: Sep 2025 Local and Jan 2026 Presidential)

[Mike88]

Party lists are starting to become final. Head lists candidates by district:

BE - Left Bloc

Azores: Pedro Amaral
Aveiro: Luís Fazenda, former MP (1999-2015) and former caucus leader (1999-2009; 2011-2015);
Beja: Pedro Amaral
Braga: Francisco Louçã, former party leader (1999-2012) and former MP (1999-2012);
Bragança: Vítor Pimenta
Castelo Branco: Inês Antunes
Coimbra: Miguel Cardina
Évora: Pedro Ferreira
Faro: José Gusmão, former MEP (2019-2024) and former MP (2009-2011);
Guarda: Beatriz Realinho
Leiria: Fernando Rosas, former MP (1999-2002; 2005-2011);
Lisbon: Mariana Mortágua, BE leader and incumbent MP;
Madeira: Diogo Teixeira
Portalegre: José Carita Monteiro
Porto: Marisa Matias, incumbent MP, former MEP (2009-2024);
Santarém: Bruno Góis
Setúbal: Joana Mortágua, incumbent MP and Mariana Mortágua's twin sister;
Viana do Castelo: Adriana Temporão
Vila Real: Anabela Oliveira
Viseu: David Santos
Europe: Teresa Duarte Soares
Outside Europe: Ana Isabel Silva

9 female head lists (41%) vs 13 male head lists (59%)

CDU - Unitary Democratic Coalition:

Azores: António Almeida
Aveiro: Isabel Tavares
Beja: Bernardino Soares, former MP (1995-2013) and former mayor of Loures (Lisbon district);
Braga: Sandra Cardoso
Bragança: Fátima Bento
Castelo Branco: Vítor Reis Silva
Coimbra: Fernando Teixeira
Évora: Graça Nascimento
Faro: Catarina Marques
Guarda: Catarina Costa
Leiria: João Paulo Delgado
Lisbon: Paulo Raimundo, PCP leader and incumbent MP;
Madeira: Herlanda Amado
Portalegre: Helena Neves
Porto: Alfredo Maia, incumbent MP;
Santarém: Inês Santos
Setúbal: Paula Santos, PCP caucus leader and incumbent MP;
Viana do Castelo: Joaquim Celestino Ribeiro
Vila Real: José Luís Ferreira, former MP (2009-2022) and PEV member;
Viseu: Alexandre Hoffman Castela
Europe: Joana Carvalho
Outside Europe: Ana Oliveira

12 female head lists (55%) vs 10 male head lists (45%)

[Mike88]

Democratic Alliance over? PSD excludes PPM from the coalition after the Monarchists demanded a safe seat in the lists:

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:k2rwf6elajxfly3te2jqx3to/post/3llcvjzv4sj2k

The PPM, which joined the AD last year, is left out.

The PSD has excluded PPM, the People's Monarchist Party, from the Democratic Alliance (AD). The PSD, in the voice of Hugo Soares, the party's caucus leader and secretary-general, said that there were disagreements regarding the lists that made a deal impossible. It seems that PPM wanted a safe seat in the lists, but PSD said "no", so the Monarchists decided to end the coalition. There's now the doubt if the coalition's name, AD - Democratic Alliance, will continue or not, with the PSD saying that they will confirm this or a new name in the coming days. There is the suggestion that the AD abbreviation will continue, but under a new name.

[Mike88]

Head list candidates, by district: AD - PSD/CDS coalition

Azores: Paulo Moniz, incumbent MP;
Aveiro: Luís Montenegro, Prime Minister and PSD leader;
Beja: Gonçalo Valente, incumbent MP;
Braga: Hugo Soares, PSD caucus leader, incumbent MP;
Bragança: Hernâni Dias, former secretary in government, resigned last January;
Castelo Branco: Pedro Reis, Economy minister;
Coimbra: Rita Júdice, Justice minister;
Évora: Francisco Figueira
Faro: Maria Graça Carvalho, Environment minister;
Guarda: Dulcineia Moura, incumbent MP;
Leiria: Margarida Balseiro Lopes, Youth minister;
Lisbon: Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, Finance minister;
Madeira: Pedro Coelho, incumbent MP;
Portalegre: Manuel Castro Almeida, Territorial Cohesion minister;
Porto: Paulo Rangel, Foreign Affairs minister;
Santarém: Fernando Alexandre, Education minister;
Setúbal: Teresa Morais, incumbent MP and Deputy Speaker;
Viana do Castelo: José Pedro Aguiar-Branco, Speaker of Parliament;
Vila Real: Ana Paula Martins, Health minister;
Viseu: António Leitão Amaro, Presidency minister;
Europe: José Manuel Fernandes, Agriculture minister;
Outside Europe: José Cesário, Portuguese communities secretary;

6 female head lists (27%) vs 16 male head lists (73%)

CDS leader, Nuno Melo, will be the 2nd in the Porto district list, while the other CDS MP, Paulo Núncio, will be 4th in Lisbon.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

Democratic Alliance over? PSD excludes PPM from the coalition after the Monarchists demanded a safe seat in the lists:

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:k2rwf6elajxfly3te2jqx3to/post/3llcvjzv4sj2k

The PPM, which joined the AD last year, is left out.

The PSD has excluded PPM, the People's Monarchist Party, from the Democratic Alliance (AD). The PSD, in the voice of Hugo Soares, the party's caucus leader and secretary-general, said that there were disagreements regarding the lists that made a deal impossible. It seems that PPM wanted a safe seat in the lists, but PSD said "no", so the Monarchists decided to end the coalition. There's now the doubt if the coalition's name, AD - Democratic Alliance, will continue or not, with the PSD saying that they will confirm this or a new name in the coming days. There is the suggestion that the AD abbreviation will continue, but under a new name.

The inclusion of PPM always seemed odd to me just because of how tiny they are. Are they even relevant outside of like, the Azores?

[Mike88]

The inclusion of PPM always seemed odd to me just because of how tiny they are. Are they even relevant outside of like, the Azores?

Outside Azores, they are basically non-existent. The last time they ran lists in more than one district, in 2019, they got just 0.16% of the votes. Their inclusion was more to avoid "noise" about the use of the name "AD - Democratic Alliance", as PPM is already saying that PSD/CDS cannot use the name and abbreviation without PPM in it.

[25 Abril/Aprile Sempre!]

The inclusion of PPM always seemed odd to me just because of how tiny they are. Are they even relevant outside of like, the Azores?

Outside Azores, they are basically non-existent. The last time they ran lists in more than one district, in 2019, they got just 0.16% of the votes. Their inclusion was more to avoid "noise" about the use of the name "AD - Democratic Alliance", as PPM is already saying that PSD/CDS cannot use the name and abbreviation without PPM in it.

What is the history behind that?

[Mike88]

The inclusion of PPM always seemed odd to me just because of how tiny they are. Are they even relevant outside of like, the Azores?

Outside Azores, they are basically non-existent. The last time they ran lists in more than one district, in 2019, they got just 0.16% of the votes. Their inclusion was more to avoid "noise" about the use of the name "AD - Democratic Alliance", as PPM is already saying that PSD/CDS cannot use the name and abbreviation without PPM in it.

What is the history behind that?

PPM argues that because the original AD, in the late 70's, was between PSD, CDS and PPM, the party is always linked to the name and any use of the AD brand, without PPM, is an "abusive" use of the party's image and name. Anyway, PPM, showing that the "there's no such thing as bad publicity" doctrine is true, is already threatening with the Courts, if PSD/CDS doesn't drop the AD - Democratic Alliance name.

[Mike88]

Besides the "PPM thing", other updates:

• The Madeira results "stunned" pundits and opinion makers, and many are now trying to understand why did voters decided to "strengthen" someone, or a party, involved in several corruption scandals and investigations. Some argue that in the battle between "ethics" and "stability", voters will always prefer stability, and there's also the discussion if what happened in Madeira will be repeated on 18 May nationwide;

• The debates continue to create heated "debates":

(...)PS and BE criticize the PM, but say they accept the AD's proposal, while Montenegro says that in a coalition, the other party with seats should also be present at the debates, pressing he's not running away from anything. Nuno Melo says that some parties are "scared" of debating him, while Ventura is accusing Montenegro of being a "coward".(...)

The AD isn't budging and the debate timetable remains in a stalemate. Livre has already confirmed that they refuse to debate Nuno Melo, and also criticize other parties and TV networks for accepting this demand from AD. Other parties, however, are pressing Montenegro to retract his position. The question is now if TV networks will stick with the one-on-one debates, or present a new format;

• The PSD head candidates are creating some surprise. The numbers of ministers as main candidates is "eye boggling", and then there's the "weird" return of disgraced former local government secretary, Hêrnani Dias, as candidate from Bragança district. You may recall that in January, he resigned after it was discovered he created several real estate businesses while in office, in which his family members, including minors, were shareholders in these businesses. Many in the PSD are uncomfortable with this choice and question the Prime Minister's motivations;

• And beyond lists, PS and CHEGA have proposed housing policies: PS wants some of the profits of the state owned bank, Caixa Geral de Depósitos (CGD), to be used by local governments to build affordable housing. On the other hand, CHEGA, aka André Ventura, wants to use the profits of all banks, private and public, to support rents and house credits, adding that he wants also to fiscalize if those who live in public housing "have BMWs or Mercedes";

[Mike88]

New Intercampus poll for CMTV, News Now and CM and Negócios newspapers.

Vote share %:

26.5% AD (+3.3)
23.1% PS (-1.6)
12.3% CHEGA (-4.1)
  9.2% IL (+1.0)
  4.0% Livre (+0.1)
  2.7% BE (-1.9)
  2.7% PAN (+0.8 )
  1.8% CDU (-0.6)
  3.9% Others/Invalid (+0.6)
13.9% Undecided (+2.6)

Poll conducted between 20 and 26 March 2025. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Flyersfan232]

Besides the "PPM thing", other updates:

• The Madeira results "stunned" pundits and opinion makers, and many are now trying to understand why did voters decided to "strengthen" someone, or a party, involved in several corruption scandals and investigations. Some argue that in the battle between "ethics" and "stability", voters will always prefer stability, and there's also the discussion if what happened in Madeira will be repeated on 18 May nationwide;

• The debates continue to create heated "debates":

(...)PS and BE criticize the PM, but say they accept the AD's proposal, while Montenegro says that in a coalition, the other party with seats should also be present at the debates, pressing he's not running away from anything. Nuno Melo says that some parties are "scared" of debating him, while Ventura is accusing Montenegro of being a "coward".(...)

The AD isn't budging and the debate timetable remains in a stalemate. Livre has already confirmed that they refuse to debate Nuno Melo, and also criticize other parties and TV networks for accepting this demand from AD. Other parties, however, are pressing Montenegro to retract his position. The question is now if TV networks will stick with the one-on-one debates, or present a new format;

• The PSD head candidates are creating some surprise. The numbers of ministers as main candidates is "eye boggling", and then there's the "weird" return of disgraced former local government secretary, Hêrnani Dias, as candidate from Bragança district. You may recall that in January, he resigned after it was discovered he created several real estate businesses while in office, in which his family members, including minors, were shareholders in these businesses. Many in the PSD are uncomfortable with this choice and question the Prime Minister's motivations;

• And beyond lists, PS and CHEGA have proposed housing policies: PS wants some of the profits of the state owned bank, Caixa Geral de Depósitos (CGD), to be used by local governments to build affordable housing. On the other hand, CHEGA, aka André Ventura, wants to use the profits of all banks, private and public, to support rents and house credits, adding that he wants also to fiscalize if those who live in public housing "have BMWs or Mercedes";

what do madeira means for the jpp results in may

[Flyersfan232]

The inclusion of PPM always seemed odd to me just because of how tiny they are. Are they even relevant outside of like, the Azores?

Outside Azores, they are basically non-existent. The last time they ran lists in more than one district, in 2019, they got just 0.16% of the votes. Their inclusion was more to avoid "noise" about the use of the name "AD - Democratic Alliance", as PPM is already saying that PSD/CDS cannot use the name and abbreviation without PPM in it.

What is the history behind that?

PPM argues that because the original AD, in the late 70's, was between PSD, CDS and PPM, the party is always linked to the name and any use of the AD brand, without PPM, is an "abusive" use of the party's image and name. Anyway, PPM, showing that the "there's no such thing as bad publicity" doctrine is true, is already threatening with the Courts, if PSD/CDS doesn't drop the AD - Democratic Alliance name.

how monarchist is ppm i do know they are monarchist in psd ((the current president of portugal is a monarchist for example))

[Mike88]

what do madeira means for the jpp results in may

Almost certainly, JPP will elect seats from Madeira constituency, 1 or 2 seats. One seat is basically granted, if you use the 21% they got in the regional elections; a second seat is possible if the PSD/CDS result is bellow 40%, and if PS and CHEGA also underperform. So, a new party in Parliament is on the horizon.

how monarchist is ppm i do know they are monarchist in psd ((the current president of portugal is a monarchist for example))

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa isn't a monarchist. Within the PSD there are a few, and one who has openly said he's a monarchist is Miguel Albuquerque, the President of Madeira's government. PPM defends the monarchy, but its relationship with the Portuguese pretender to the throne, D. Duarte Pio, is basically non-existent. It was much worse in the past, but, there's no love between both sides, mainly because of PPM's leader.

[Mike88]

Final and certified results of the Madeira regional elections:

Madeira regional election - Certified results

23 March 2025

PPD/PSD             62,059  43.4%  23  +4
JPP                 30,091  21.0%  11  +2
PS                  22,351  15.6%   8  -3
CH                   7,821   5.5%   3  -1
CDS-PP               4,289   3.0%   1  -1
IL                   3,097   2.2%   1  -
PCP-PEV              2,543   1.8%
PAN                  2,323   1.6%      -1
BE                   1,586   1.1%
L                      959   0.7%
PTP.MPT.RIR            790   0.6%
ADN                    691   0.5%
PPM                    576   0.4%
ND                     487   0.2%
-----------------------------------------
Blank                  715   0.5%
Invalid              2,581   1.8%
-----------------------------------------
Turnout            142,959  56.0%  47  -
Registered         255,380


If we use these results to make a seat projection for the 18 May general elections, this would be the result (compared with March 2024): 4 seats PSD/CDS (+1); 1 JPP (+1); PS 1 (-1); 0 CHEGA (-1).

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

I imagine CHEGA does better in the legislative election than the regional, and PSD worse, looking at last year's results there. So 3 PSD/CDS, 1 JPP, 1 PS, 1 CH ? Would that be a reasonable prediction?

[Mike88]

I imagine CHEGA does better in the legislative election than the regional, and PSD worse, looking at last year's results there. So 3 PSD/CDS, 1 JPP, 1 PS, 1 CH ? Would that be a reasonable prediction?

It's a fair prediction. In 2024, CHEGA got 17% in the March general election and just 9% in the May regional election, an 8% difference. If we extrapolate this to the May election, CHEGA would poll around 13%, enough to win a seat, and the 3-1-1-1 prediction looks reasonable.

[Mike88]

Democratic Alliance over? PSD excludes PPM from the coalition after the Monarchists demanded a safe seat in the lists:
(...)
There's now the doubt if the coalition's name, AD - Democratic Alliance, will continue or not, with the PSD saying that they will confirm this or a new name in the coming days. There is the suggestion that the AD abbreviation will continue, but under a new name.

The new name: "AD - Democratic Alliance - PSD/CDS". I want to see how many people will confuse this with ADN on election day. (And if PPM will not "freak out")

[Mike88]

Luís Montenegro admitted to hospital due to a heart problem:

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:t6xm4zrxilskfwjta2x7lu56/post/3llhkynch3e22

Prime Minister was referred to the cardiology department. Prognosis is favorable.

According to Santa Maria Hospital, the largest NHS hospital in the country, the Prime Minister was admitted at around 1pm and, after analyzing his symptoms, was referred to the cardiology department, where he was then hospitalized. The head of the hospital said, in a press release, that the Prime Minister's prognosis is favorable and that he will likely be discharged in the next few hours.

[Flyersfan232]

Luís Montenegro admitted to hospital due to a heart problem:

https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:t6xm4zrxilskfwjta2x7lu56/post/3llhkynch3e22

Prime Minister was referred to the cardiology department. Prognosis is favorable.

According to Santa Maria Hospital, the largest NHS hospital in the country, the Prime Minister was admitted at around 1pm and, after analyzing his symptoms, was referred to the cardiology department, where he was then hospitalized. The head of the hospital said, in a press release, that the Prime Minister's prognosis is favorable and that he will likely be discharged in the next few hours.

how old is he?

[Mike88]

how old is he?

52 years old. The media is already saying that he felt a discomfort in his chest and was rushed to hospital, adding that the hospital exams came out normal.

[Mike88]

Luís Montenegro admitted to hospital due to a heart problem:

The media is already saying that he felt a discomfort in his chest and was rushed to hospital, adding that the hospital exams came out normal.

He was discharged from hospital, and gave a brief statement to reporters that were waiting outside the hospital. Smiling, he said that he had an episode of cardiac arrhythmia, something he said he suffers occasionally, but that everything was normal and he was fine. He added that he will take advantage of the weekend to rest and will resume his schedule next Monday.

[Flyersfan232]

Is ps eating uo thrncommunist and be vote?

[Oryxslayer]

Is ps eating uo thrncommunist and be vote?

[Mike88]

Is ps eating uo thrncommunist and be vote?

I think he's asking if the PS is "eating up" the PCP and BE vote. I don't think so, the PS vote looks stagnant, while the "drain" of votes from PCP and BE continue. IMO, PCP votes seem to be going either to CHEGA or just dying out, while BE, which had a solid young voter base, seems to be losing votes to CHEGA and IL.

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

Is ps eating uo thrncommunist and be vote?

I think he's asking if the PS is "eating up" the PCP and BE vote. I don't think so, the PS vote looks stagnant, while the "drain" of votes from PCP and BE continue. IMO, PCP votes seem to be going either to CHEGA or just dying out, while BE, which had a solid young voter base, seems to be losing votes to CHEGA and IL.

Where is L gaining support from? It does seem they've very modestly improved their vote share if polls are accurate. At least looking at Intercampus.

[Mike88]

Is ps eating uo thrncommunist and be vote?

I think he's asking if the PS is "eating up" the PCP and BE vote. I don't think so, the PS vote looks stagnant, while the "drain" of votes from PCP and BE continue. IMO, PCP votes seem to be going either to CHEGA or just dying out, while BE, which had a solid young voter base, seems to be losing votes to CHEGA and IL.

Where is L gaining support from? It does seem they've very modestly improved their vote share if polls are accurate. At least looking at Intercampus.

Ah Livre, yes. I was thinking about them while I was writting the reply but then I forgot about them. My mistake. Hmm.. I see Livre as a party which attracts "embarassed" left-wing voters, meaning: Voters who feel PCP is "outdated", BE is just "cringe" and the PS is "awkward", so they vote Livre. They're mostly urban, relatively young (20 to 40s) and highly educated. I would say that these voters either supported PS or BE in past elections.