How would a 2028 primary between Whitmer and Harris turn out?
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  How would a 2028 primary between Whitmer and Harris turn out?
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Author Topic: How would a 2028 primary between Whitmer and Harris turn out?  (Read 884 times)
President Johnson
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« on: April 01, 2024, 11:26:25 AM »

Assuming Biden is reelected and regularly serves out his second term. How do you think a primary contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and (then former) Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer would turn out? Assume all other candidate have either dropped out by February 2028 or are just polling in single digits and it's essentially what Obama vs. Clinton was in early 2008.

I think Harris would have strong backing of minorities, but Whitmer could make the same argument as Biden in 2020 that she's more electable in November. Having two women compete for the nomination would definitely be interesting. And even more so if Republicans also nominate a woman. 2028 could indeed become the year of the women in presidential politics.
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #1 on: April 02, 2024, 12:49:39 PM »

Lean Harris on account of the black vote and institutional support.
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« Reply #2 on: April 02, 2024, 01:10:08 PM »

It wouldn't. Biden's going to repeal the 22nd Amendment so he can run again. Republicans support it because they believe Trump is the incumbent three-term president and they want to make sure he can run for both a fourth and fifth term.
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wnwnwn
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« Reply #3 on: April 02, 2024, 02:10:00 PM »
« Edited: April 02, 2024, 02:13:21 PM by wnwnwn »

I suppose Whitmer would win asians and get good results with hispanics if she plays her cards well.
Her campaing could easily play both the neo-newdealism and the technocratic sides of the democrat discourse.
Harris wasn't as relevant as Biden and Gore were before being VPs. Also, she isn't a 'friend of Obama as Clinton and Biden', so Obama fans won't support her that much.
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MABA 2020
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« Reply #4 on: April 03, 2024, 02:31:47 PM »

I'd like to think Whitmer would win that matchup but in all likelihood Harris will have the older black vote that matters so much in Democratic primaries.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #5 on: April 06, 2024, 12:17:39 PM »

Whitmer would cream Harris.
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Steve from Lambeth
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« Reply #6 on: April 06, 2024, 04:07:11 PM »

Kamala wins.
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Devils30
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« Reply #7 on: April 12, 2024, 12:13:46 AM »
« Edited: April 12, 2024, 12:17:42 AM by Devils30 »

2 scenarios, one of which is potentially good for Dems and one that smashes their coalition for good:

1) Whitmer trounces Harris. It becomes apparent right away in debates that she presents herself much better than Harris and she gets everyone but some older black voters and campus progressives. Harris makes numerous gaffes and runs to the left but 65% of Dems know she is weak and choose Whitmer. Whitmer enters the general election with the Dem coalition intact.

2) Harris wins a drawn out ugly primary that is filled with baseless accusations of racism while running to the Elizabeth Warren left. Harris wins just enough Biden supporting black voters along with white progressives to eek out a narrow 2008 Obama style primary win. Hispanics, Asians, Jews and moderate whites vote heavily for Whitmer. In the general, a significant number of these voters defect to the GOP nominee (lets say its Glenn Youngkin) and never return. The GOP wins a bigger than Obama 2008 landslide and Harris gets 19% of the non-college white vote while only getting Obama numbers with college whites.

In response to her loss, the Dem base becomes more agitated than ever and decides there is no better way to prove America is a racist country than nominating the most mediocre African-American candidate to represent the Dem brand. It leads to a 2030s with a large GOP majority and numerous street protests in large cities organized by the academic left. At some point Dems have their own January 6th (which the national guard puts down) and must completely reform by 2040. Decades later, Obama's legacy looks a lot shakier with many academics realizing he left deep seated issues simmering during his time in office.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #8 on: April 12, 2024, 08:40:39 AM »

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Yelnoc
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« Reply #9 on: April 14, 2024, 07:43:59 AM »

Whitmer would crush Harris. I'm skeptical black voters would back her to the hilt the way they did Obama. Her goofy affect and the fact the she is a woman are both going to hurt her, especially among black men.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #10 on: April 14, 2024, 07:09:51 PM »

I think it would look a lot like 2008 with Harris in the role of Clinton and Whitmer in the role of Obama. The coalitions would be different for sure, but I think Whitmer would have the edge in the end even if Harris started out as a favorite.
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wnwnwn
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« Reply #11 on: April 20, 2024, 05:55:29 PM »

2 scenarios, one of which is potentially good for Dems and one that smashes their coalition for good:

1) Whitmer trounces Harris. It becomes apparent right away in debates that she presents herself much better than Harris and she gets everyone but some older black voters and campus progressives. Harris makes numerous gaffes and runs to the left but 65% of Dems know she is weak and choose Whitmer. Whitmer enters the general election with the Dem coalition intact.

2) Harris wins a drawn out ugly primary that is filled with baseless accusations of racism while running to the Elizabeth Warren left. Harris wins just enough Biden supporting black voters along with white progressives to eek out a narrow 2008 Obama style primary win. Hispanics, Asians, Jews and moderate whites vote heavily for Whitmer. In the general, a significant number of these voters defect to the GOP nominee (lets say its Glenn Youngkin) and never return. The GOP wins a bigger than Obama 2008 landslide and Harris gets 19% of the non-college white vote while only getting Obama numbers with college whites.

In response to her loss, the Dem base becomes more agitated than ever and decides there is no better way to prove America is a racist country than nominating the most mediocre African-American candidate to represent the Dem brand. It leads to a 2030s with a large GOP majority and numerous street protests in large cities organized by the academic left. At some point Dems have their own January 6th (which the national guard puts down) and must completely reform by 2040. Decades later, Obama's legacy looks a lot shakier with many academics realizing he left deep seated issues simmering during his time in office.

I think Kamala would not be appealing to moderates, but she would keep the dem base even if thay primary situation happens (well, maybe some asians and jews leave, but not that much).
The GOP won't nominate Youngkin unless there is a complicated GOP  primary.
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