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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Who would you have voted for--Dem primaries???
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Author Topic: Who would you have voted for--Dem primaries???  (Read 17913 times)
Gustaf
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« Reply #25 on: February 05, 2004, 03:04:43 pm »

Oregon is slightly better...in California, Taft finsihed 5th place, behind Roosvelt, Wilson, Debs and Chafin, with 0.58% of the vote in write-ins. H-U-M-I-L-I-A-T-I-O-N! Cheesy
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Gustaf
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« Reply #26 on: February 05, 2004, 03:07:50 pm »

1912 is now officially my favourite election. I am letting my passion destroy this thread, but it's really cool! Debs actually ran 2nd in Florida! Smiley And since Chafin got 3.65% in 5th place there, I think that might be a record.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #27 on: February 05, 2004, 03:13:07 pm »

And there's Montana where Debs got 13.64% of the vote and finished 4th! I'm gonna stop now, btw... Wink
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tweed
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« Reply #28 on: February 05, 2004, 03:51:30 pm »

1912 is now officially my favourite election. I am letting my passion destroy this thread, but it's really cool! Debs actually ran 2nd in Florida! Smiley And since Chafin got 3.65% in 5th place there, I think that might be a record.
I got you hooked on 1912...I told you it was cool!
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Gustaf
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« Reply #29 on: February 05, 2004, 04:28:12 pm »

1912 is now officially my favourite election. I am letting my passion destroy this thread, but it's really cool! Debs actually ran 2nd in Florida! Smiley And since Chafin got 3.65% in 5th place there, I think that might be a record.
I got you hooked on 1912...I told you it was cool!

Yes you did, and yes it is! Smiley
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #30 on: February 05, 2004, 04:29:56 pm »

Ah... yes... 1912 Smiley
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TheWildCard
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« Reply #31 on: February 05, 2004, 04:42:23 pm »

Yes 1912 was indeed the most chaotic because TR ran under his own Bull Moose party otherwise Taft would have won that election by almost 1M(if you give TR's to Taft)
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Gustaf
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« Reply #32 on: February 05, 2004, 04:44:02 pm »

Yes 1912 was indeed the most chaotic because TR ran under his own Bull Moose party otherwise Taft would have won that election by almost 1M(if you give TR's to Taft)

I am not sure on whether EVERY Roosvelt voter would've gone for Taft, but I agree that most would have, and that Taft would then have won. Still, you should probably give Debs voters to Wilson if you're gonna make a fair "what-if".
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M
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« Reply #33 on: February 07, 2004, 01:59:41 am »

If Roosevelt had won, we'd have entered the war in 1915 after the Lusitania, beat the Central Powers by 1916. Russia never collapses. Russia and Austria not dismembered (Now, Turkey, on the other hand...). Europe still ruled by emperors. Second Great War will be completely different.
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Nym90
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« Reply #34 on: February 07, 2004, 02:04:39 am »

Waay too simplistic to say that all of Roosevelt's vote would have gone to Taft. Roosevelt was a Republican, but a pretty liberal one, while Taft was much more conservative. A pretty good portion of Roosevelt's vote would have gone to Wilson, and he almost certainly still would have won if Roosevelt hadn't been a candidate. Taft was not held in high regard by the voters in 1912.

Now, if Roosevelt had been the GOP nominee instead of Taft, then Roosevelt quite possibly would have won as he would have won the great majority of Taft's votes. The GOP didn't want to dump the incumbent president off of the ticket, though.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #35 on: February 07, 2004, 02:26:31 am »

Waay too simplistic to say that all of Roosevelt's vote would have gone to Taft. Roosevelt was a Republican, but a pretty liberal one, while Taft was much more conservative. A pretty good portion of Roosevelt's vote would have gone to Wilson, and he almost certainly still would have won if Roosevelt hadn't been a candidate. Taft was not held in high regard by the voters in 1912.

Now, if Roosevelt had been the GOP nominee instead of Taft, then Roosevelt quite possibly would have won as he would have won the great majority of Taft's votes. The GOP didn't want to dump the incumbent president off of the ticket, though.

Roosevelt would have definitely won, quite possibly with more votes than he and Taft received combined. Taft, who was not nearly as conservative as he's sometimes made out (but large parts of his cabinets were) would have won wirgut Roosevelt's candidacy, but probably only narrowly. it might have taken a more progressive running mate, but to assume that Taft is the nominee and Roosevelt doesnt run against him implys a quite progressive platfrm and a Roosevelt-handpicked running mate anyways.
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #36 on: February 07, 2004, 02:35:21 am »
« Edited: February 07, 2004, 08:16:01 am by Lewis Trondheim »

1912 is now officially my favourite election. I am letting my passion destroy this thread, but it's really cool! Debs actually ran 2nd in Florida! Smiley And since Chafin got 3.65% in 5th place there, I think that might be a record.
I got you hooked on 1912...I told you it was cool!

Yes you did, and yes it is! Smiley

You salvaged it, man, you didn't destroy it.
There are five states where four candidates polled over 10% in 1912: Az, ID, MT, NV, WA.
There are only two more states where this ever happened, if I looked right. Missouri in 1860 and Illinois in 1824. William Crawford's 18,1% there are the record for fourth place, not Taft's 15,9 in Nevada.
Of course in both 1824 and 1860 it also happened in the Nation at large, but extreme reegional polarization ensures there's only one state each with the same pattern. and of course the national result for 124 is flawed because quite a number of states didn't hold a popular vote yet, and Clay might be below 10% otherwise.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #37 on: February 07, 2004, 08:10:51 am »

If Roosevelt had won, we'd have entered the war in 1915 after the Lusitania, beat the Central Powers by 1916. Russia never collapses. Russia and Austria not dismembered (Now, Turkey, on the other hand...). Europe still ruled by emperors. Second Great War will be completely different.

I think Austria, at least, would probably have disintegrated anyway, especially after losing, but you could well be right on Russia. Interesting scenario...
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #38 on: February 07, 2004, 08:17:06 am »

If Roosevelt had won, we'd have entered the war in 1915 after the Lusitania, beat the Central Powers by 1916. Russia never collapses. Russia and Austria not dismembered (Now, Turkey, on the other hand...). Europe still ruled by emperors. Second Great War will be completely different.

I think Austria, at least, would probably have disintegrated anyway, especially after losing, but you could well be right on Russia. Interesting scenario...
If Roosevelt had won as a third party candidate, he might have wanted to go to war in 1915, but Congress definitely wouldn't have let him.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #39 on: February 07, 2004, 08:23:53 am »

If Roosevelt had won, we'd have entered the war in 1915 after the Lusitania, beat the Central Powers by 1916. Russia never collapses. Russia and Austria not dismembered (Now, Turkey, on the other hand...). Europe still ruled by emperors. Second Great War will be completely different.

I think Austria, at least, would probably have disintegrated anyway, especially after losing, but you could well be right on Russia. Interesting scenario...
If Roosevelt had won as a third party candidate, he might have wanted to go to war in 1915, but Congress definitely wouldn't have let him.

Ehem...yeah, I suppose that's good point.... *goes away to hide in a hole* Sad
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« Reply #40 on: February 07, 2004, 08:24:07 am »

1912 is one my favorite eletions.
I also love 1860--Lincoln wins with 39% of the pv, basically 3 Dems running against him and each other.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #41 on: February 07, 2004, 08:47:45 am »

1912 is one my favorite eletions.
I also love 1860--Lincoln wins with 39% of the pv, basically 3 Dems running against him and each other.

The cool thing is that Lincoln would have won even if the others had combined their votes! Proves the weirdness of teh EC.
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tweed
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« Reply #42 on: February 07, 2004, 09:23:48 am »

The cool thing is that Lincoln would have won even if the others had combined their votes!
Yep, the old forum Superman v. Lincoln what-if.
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Taft
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« Reply #43 on: February 07, 2004, 08:11:53 pm »
« Edited: February 07, 2004, 08:17:12 pm by Taft »

I ended up in a vacation resort in the West Indies with little to do, and stumbled across a book by Jules Witcover on the 1976 election. It sparkled my interest in US elections, in fact. But it was a really thick book... Wink
Okay.  I like the 1912 election because it is the only election I can find where 4 candidates polled over 10% in a state.  Wilson, Taft, TR, and Debs all did this in Idaho in 1912.
Actually, all 4 broke 15% in either Oklahoma or Nevada.  It was a very chaotic year, and Debs and Wilson were the only ones on the ballot in all the states.  TR and Taft managed to block eachother in one state.

Edit: This is what I get for not reading the whole thread before posting...
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Grand Mufti of Northern Virginia
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« Reply #44 on: September 18, 2005, 03:11:16 pm »
« Edited: September 18, 2005, 03:17:43 pm by Frodo »

1972 -Sen. Henry 'Scoop' Jackson (WA)

1976 -Gov. Jimmy Carter (GA)

1980 -(Would not have voted in Democratic primary that year)

1984 -Sen. Gary Hart (CO)

1988 -Sen. Al Gore (TN)

1992 -Gov. Bill Clinton (AR)

1996 -President Clinton (uncontested)

2000 -Vice-President Al Gore

2004 -Sen. John Edwards (NC)
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Grand Mufti of Northern Virginia
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« Reply #45 on: September 18, 2005, 03:20:28 pm »

And for anyone who wants to know who ran in which party's primaries, check this site out:

http://www.geocities.com/Athens/Agora/8088/ElectPandC.html
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tweed
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« Reply #46 on: September 18, 2005, 06:32:24 pm »

And for anyone who wants to know who ran in which party's primaries, check this site out:

http://www.geocities.com/Athens/Agora/8088/ElectPandC.html

The bumping of these threads and that link seems to be putting me back in February 2004.
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jfern
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« Reply #47 on: September 19, 2005, 02:29:52 am »

1972. Muskie
1976. Carter
1980. Carter
1984. Hart
1988. Gore
1992. Brown
1996. Clinton
2000. Gore (without hindsight voted Bradley)
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tweed
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« Reply #48 on: September 19, 2005, 02:33:39 pm »

Let do this again now, 18 months later.

1972: McGovern
1976: Carter
1980: Kennedy
1984: Hart
1988: Gore
1992: Clinton
1996: Clinton
2000: Gore
2004: Edwards
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True Democrat
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« Reply #49 on: September 19, 2005, 05:30:14 pm »

1972: NOTA
1976: Maybe Jerry Brown or Jackson, No really good candidates
1980: I don't know, of the two Carter
1984: Either Hollings, Hart, or Glenn
1988: Gore
1992: Clinton
1996: Clinton
2000: Gore, I guess
2004: Clark
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