1976 No Watergate

[ReaganLimbaugh]

How does 1976 go if no Watergate or it is buried 10000 feet below ground (non issue).  Under this scenario Nixon has a mediocre run from 1974 to 1976 and the North Vietnamese actually recognize the Paris accords.

Who wins the Democrat nomination.....how does the primary go?  How is the GOP side different than in real life?

Your thoughts???

[Walz4VP! / RecallLopezAliaga!]

Reagan would had probably won the GOP primaries.
On this particular scenario, maybe Church would had won the democrat primaries.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Would Hubert Humphrey or Teddy Kennedy have run for the Democratic nomination in this scenario?

Otherwise, the profile of the remaining Democrats drops off significantly. However, I think it's a bit hard to imagine this counterfactual because key Democrats profiles were raised due to Watergate (like Jimmy Carter and Mo Udall.) What would have been the main issues if not for Watergate?

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Reagan would had probably won the GOP primaries.
On this particular scenario, maybe Church would had won the democrat primaries.

Makes sense since the hearings on Cointrelpro/Operation Chaos weren't related to Watergate.

[Brother Jonathan]

Does Agnew still resign/have his corruption issues? If not, he'd probably be favored for the Republican nomination being the Vice President and having a strong connection to the base. Would be a crowded field in any event, regardless of if the VP was Agnew or Ford or someone else. Reagan probably runs, as well as other conservatives like maybe John Connally. Without Ford as President a lot more room for moderates like Charles Percy and Howard Baker as well. Assuming Agnew was out, I would think of that group Reagan would be the most likely nominee.

[CentristRepublican]

Does Agnew still resign/have his corruption issues? If not, he'd probably be favored for the Republican nomination being the Vice President and having a strong connection to the base. Would be a crowded field in any event, regardless of if the VP was Agnew or Ford or someone else. Reagan probably runs, as well as other conservatives like maybe John Connally. Without Ford as President a lot more room for moderates like Charles Percy and Howard Baker as well. Assuming Agnew was out, I would think of that group Reagan would be the most likely nominee.

I think Reagan would beat out even VP Agnew or VP Ford, given that he performed respectably against President Ford irl.

[Brother Jonathan]

Does Agnew still resign/have his corruption issues? If not, he'd probably be favored for the Republican nomination being the Vice President and having a strong connection to the base. Would be a crowded field in any event, regardless of if the VP was Agnew or Ford or someone else. Reagan probably runs, as well as other conservatives like maybe John Connally. Without Ford as President a lot more room for moderates like Charles Percy and Howard Baker as well. Assuming Agnew was out, I would think of that group Reagan would be the most likely nominee.

I think Reagan would beat out even VP Agnew or VP Ford, given that he performed respectably against President Ford irl.

I agree on Ford, certainly, but Agnew was seen as being on the right of the party and was something of a darling in those circles, so I think he would probably undercut some of Reagan's support. That being said he also had a lot of other faults that probably hurt him so I think it remains competitive no matter what.

[Prez_zf]

In my view, Connally probably wins the nomination, defeating Mathias or Anderson. As for the Dems, Mo Udall might win. The election would come down to the wire.

[ReaganLimbaugh]

Yes, Agnew still resigns.

[ReaganLimbaugh]

Hubert no, Kennedy maybe.

[Brother Jonathan]

Yes, Agnew still resigns.

Yeah, in that case Reagan for the Republican, though maybe more conservatives would be in the primary and complicate his path a bit, but that didn't really impact him in 1980 all that much.

[Mr. Smith]

Probably U.S. Senator Scoop Jackson v. VP Spiro Agnew or Governor Ronald Reagan...maybe Senator Bob Dole.

[ClassicElectionEnthusiast]

Reagan would had probably won the GOP primaries.
On this particular scenario, maybe Church would had won the democrat primaries.

Makes sense since the hearings on Cointrelpro/Operation Chaos weren't related to Watergate.

I'm curious as to how much with regards to COINTELPRO and the other CIA/FBI illegal activities would have come to light had it not been for Watergate?

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Reagan would had probably won the GOP primaries.
On this particular scenario, maybe Church would had won the democrat primaries.

Makes sense since the hearings on Cointrelpro/Operation Chaos weren't related to Watergate.

I'm curious as to how much with regards to COINTELPRO and the other CIA/FBI illegal activities would have come to light had it not been for Watergate?

It might have been due to other Nixon related activity, but the discovery of COINTELPRO (and Operation Chaos/MK Ultra) occurred before the Watergate break-in (June 1972.)

The Citizens' Commission the Investigate the FBI broke into the Pennsylvania  FBI office sometime in 1971.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizens%27_Commission_to_Investigate_the_FBI

Edit to add: I'm sure the direct antecedent to 'The Citizens' Commission to Investigate the FBI' was the release of the Pentagon Papers, not Watergate.

Of course, it could also have been Nixon's reaction to the release of the Pentagon Papers, which was to break into Daniel Ellsberg's psychiatrists' office. I'm not sure when that became public knowledge though.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Probably U.S. Senator Scoop Jackson v. VP Spiro Agnew or Governor Ronald Reagan...maybe Senator Bob Dole.

Senator Scoop Jackson is interesting given that I think it was generally regarded even at that time that the inflation of the 1970s (starting in 1966) was sparked by LBJ's Guns and Butter policies and Scoop Jackson was Guns and Butter multiplied.

Liberal Walter Mondale had no problem with that in 1984 because he promised to raise taxes (which probably hurt him in the general election) and he had been Vice President under Carter's austerity budgets (relative to Reagan.)

However, for instance, liberal Illinois Senator Paul Simon's campaign was ended by his inability to answer how he'd pay for all his program spending in 1988.

I suspect that Scoop Jackson would ultimately have suffered the same fate in this scenario.

[President Johnson]

In my view, Connally probably wins the nomination, defeating Mathias or Anderson. As for the Dems, Mo Udall might win. The election would come down to the wire.

Agreed, this is the most likely scenario in my view as well. I think Connally ends up winning, but loses in a landslide in 1980.



✓ Former Treasury Secretary John Connally (R-TX)/Senator Paul Laxalt (R-NV): 294 EV. (49.77%)
Representative Mo Udall (D-AZ)/Governor James E. Carter (D-GA): 244 EV. (48.06%)

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Richard Helms et al will still likely destroy most of the evidence even without Watergate.

This is kind of interesting, but I don't know if it means anything. There are two sayings related to this
1.Every document has a cousin
2.Every document is in triplicate.

So, in boxes all over the country if not the world, there are likely Operation Chaos/MK Ultra documents just waiting to be discovered.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

Richard Helms et al will still likely destroy most of the evidence even without Watergate.

This is kind of interesting, but I don't know if it means anything. There are two sayings related to this
1.Every document has a cousin
2.Every document is in triplicate.

So, in boxes all over the country if not the world, there are likely Operation Chaos/MK Ultra documents just waiting to be discovered.

I'm referring to OTL -- which is why a full investigation was impossible.

I recognize that, but there are discoveries now and then, like those of Jolly West.

Even Wikipedia acknowledges that West worked for the CIA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louis_Jolyon_West

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

In my view, Connally probably wins the nomination, defeating Mathias or Anderson. As for the Dems, Mo Udall might win. The election would come down to the wire.

Agreed, this is the most likely scenario in my view as well. I think Connally ends up winning, but loses in a landslide in 1980.



✓ Former Treasury Secretary John Connally (R-TX)/Senator Paul Laxalt (R-NV): 294 EV. (49.77%)
Representative Mo Udall (D-AZ)/Governor James E. Carter (D-GA): 244 EV. (48.06%)

If that were the scenario Mo Udall (and I think there's a very good chance he would have won the nomination as well) would have been the first member of the House of Representatives to win the nomination of a major party since...? (I don't know the answer.)

[Prez_zf]

In my view, Connally probably wins the nomination, defeating Mathias or Anderson. As for the Dems, Mo Udall might win. The election would come down to the wire.

Agreed, this is the most likely scenario in my view as well. I think Connally ends up winning, but loses in a landslide in 1980.



✓ Former Treasury Secretary John Connally (R-TX)/Senator Paul Laxalt (R-NV): 294 EV. (49.77%)
Representative Mo Udall (D-AZ)/Governor James E. Carter (D-GA): 244 EV. (48.06%)

If that were the scenario Mo Udall (and I think there's a very good chance he would have won the nomination as well) would have been the first member of the House of Representatives to win the nomination of a major party since...? (I don't know the answer.)

Garfield if I'm not mistaken.

[Benjamin Frank 2.0]

In my view, Connally probably wins the nomination, defeating Mathias or Anderson. As for the Dems, Mo Udall might win. The election would come down to the wire.

Agreed, this is the most likely scenario in my view as well. I think Connally ends up winning, but loses in a landslide in 1980.



✓ Former Treasury Secretary John Connally (R-TX)/Senator Paul Laxalt (R-NV): 294 EV. (49.77%)
Representative Mo Udall (D-AZ)/Governor James E. Carter (D-GA): 244 EV. (48.06%)

If that were the scenario Mo Udall (and I think there's a very good chance he would have won the nomination as well) would have been the first member of the House of Representatives to win the nomination of a major party since...? (I don't know the answer.)

Garfield if I'm not mistaken.

Thanks!

[Steve from Lambeth]

Everybody welcome Katelyn! To answer her first point - I don't think the Persian monarchy would have collapsed in 1979 or any other point in an earlier Reagan Presidency. (The Trump Effect comes to mind.)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Everybody welcome Katelyn! To answer her first point - I don't think the Persian monarchy would have collapsed in 1979 or any other point in an earlier Reagan Presidency. (The Trump Effect comes to mind.)

Regardless, I think 1980 likely has Ted Kennedy beating an incumbent Reagan.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Ronald Reagan would have won the nomination and the Presidency, with Ohio Gov. James Rhodes as his running mate.

Birch Bayh, who announced for President in 1975 would have prevailed as the nominee and would have chosen Lloyd Bentsen, who also announced for President in 1975.

Several considerations for the Democrats here:

1.  Jimmy Carter would have attempted a run for President.  He had his mind on this during the 1972 campaign.  He would have been less competitive against George Wallace in Southern primaries in 1976, although he would have kept going longer than people thought he would.  But he would not be chosen for VP because, as in 1972, he probably would not have refrained from making statements against the frontrunner (whom I believe would have been Birch Bayh) that he could not take back.

2.  Scoop Jackson would not have gained traction due to the opposition from the antiwar Left of the Democratic Party.

3.  Reagan was already planning to run for President in 1976 long before Watergate broke.  The Republican lean of the Western states toward the Republicans (and CONSERVATIVE Republicans at that) was well-established.  

One of the things to think about is that if there had been no Watergate in 1973-74, there would have been no MASSIVE influx of Democratic officeholders in 1974 and a further bump in 1976.  Would Gary Hart, Michael Dukakis, Jerry Brown, or a whole slew of Democratic Reps been elected?  Ditto for a number of Democratic Governors.  And would more conservative Democrats in the South have switched to the GOP, or be replaced by Republicans after they retired?  The success of the Democrats in 1976 was (A) not exactly overwhelming, and (B) dependent on an unnatural coalition.  The default position of the Democratic Party back then was to choose candidates like Bayh.  They NEEDED the votes of conservative Southern Democrats to win back the White House, but the INFLUENCE of conservative Southern Democrats in the nominating process had been drastically reduced by the rule changes that came about by the McGovern-Fraser Commission.

[Walz4VP! / RecallLopezAliaga!]

Reagan would had probably won the GOP primaries.
On this particular scenario, maybe Church would had won the democrat primaries.

I could had ended up with:



Or maybe...