The New Spain - 1984 General Election

[Lumine]

May 1984

Areilza has stabilized the country, but the economy still hurts badly,
Can the incumbent PM stave off old and new challengers?

CONTEXT: An unstable coalition has managed to keep Carlism out of power, unexpectedly holding onto power for three years amidst salvageable divisions in the Spanish left. Though domestically successful and able to averted the feared "pre-revolutionary" moment, Areilza has also struggled with a sluggish recovery and hostile regional premiers, all while it's becoming increasingly clear that, post-Franco, the Spanish society leans to the left. Following a hostile recapture of UCD by Adolfo Suárez, PM Areilza has called for a new election to see if a more stable Cortes will be elected.

RULES:  As a government seeking re-election, the PP will lose 1% to the largest non-government party. Failure in the VONC will give the Carlists a -2% penalty to the largest non-Carlist party. I'll also be adding a 5% for the biggest non-left party (PP, DC, or UCD) for the sake of balance.

The Parties:

Partido Carlista (PC) - Left-wing, Carlism, Titoism / Hurt by the failure to lead the opposition, Carlos Hugo is under huge pressure from the Red Berets to deliver at last, lest Carlism turn more aggressive. To counter this, the Red Prince rallies against the "bourgeois left" (PSOE, PCE, PSP), denouncing their inability to "stand up for the unemployed". Retaining the traditional Titoist, social conservative, and federalist planks, Carlos Hugo has added a demand for a new and direct monarchy referendum, pitting him against the young King Felipe VI (set to reach his majority of age in 1986).

Partido Popular (PP) - Center-right, Liberal Conservatism, Monarchism / After three years in government, Areilza points to his domestic achievements and a "recovering" economy as proof that the moderate right can be trusted to govern. Campaigning on the need for a strong majority to avoid the parliamentary chaos since 1979, Areilza continues to champion economic liberalization, free market economics, entry into NATO, social conservatism, and steadfast support for consensus politics. Critical of Suárez and González in particular, Areilza urges voters not to "provide the arsonists with matches".

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) - Left to center-left, Democratic Socialism, Populism / Not longer the young promise but no less charismatic, Felipe González sees the 84' contest as his chance to emerge from the rubble as the new leader of the left, no ifs or buts. Walking a difficult tightrope, González rallies against Areilza's "shameful austerity" while denouncing the "Carlist personality cult", calling for a fiercely reformist and socialist-committed government. Among other issues, the PSOE stands for greater power to the trade unions, mass public investment, opposition to NATO and nationalization of the banks.

Partido Socialista Popular - Izquierda Republicana (PSP/IR) - Left-wing, Democratic Socialism, socially liberal / With Spanish socialism still divided, Tierno-Galván hopes to turn his 81' surge into surpassing the PSOE, based off the PSP's strength with younger voters. Having undergone a process of renewal, the PSP-IR alliance has defined itself as democratic socialist, marxist and socially liberal. Thus, the "Old Professor" Tierno-Galván eschews the PSOE's working-class based politics in favor of social liberalization, pacifism, republicanism, secularization from the Church, and calls for a left-wing coalition.

Democracia Cristiana - Centrism, Christian Democracy / Following Suárez's seizure of the UCD, the conservative wing led by Lavilla united with the DCE, forming a re-unified Christian Democrat party under the bespectacled technocrat - and Justice Minister - Óscar Alzaga. Though uncharismatic, Alzaga offers a centrist "party of stability", championing support for the Church, federalism and a pro-Europe outlook, and CDU-inspired social market economics. The DC is aiming to bury Suárez's UCD and enter another coalition government with PP as a preferential partner.

Partido Comunista de España (PCE) - Left-wing, Marxist / The 81' debacle resulted in Carrillo's ouster, with the hardliner wing of PCE winning a surprise victory that has put the party under great strain. New leader Ignacio Gallego, an outspoken old militant with a humble background, has denounced Carrillo's "Eurocommunist compromises", bringing the PCE into a more traditionally Marxist and pro-Soviet stance. Critical of the political system as a whole, Gallego champions Marxist economics, Republicanism, a refusal to enable "bourgeois" governments, and steadfast opposition to NATO and Europe.

Unión de Centro Democrático (UCD) - Center to center-left, Progressivism, Social liberalism / Exonerated from involvement in the "Shah-gate" and five years after his electoral ouster, Adolfo Suárez has returned to active politics by seizing control over UCD, shifting the party away from centrist technocracy into a progressive stance. Calculating that the real center of Spanish politics now lies somewhere in the center-left, Suárez aims for a comeback, by pledging a reformist government, championing Keynesian economics, EEC entry, the end of compulsory military service, and social liberalism.

Three days.

[The '90s' Last Champion]

PP. Stop the Carlists!

[Jumped off the American Sinking Ship]

PSP/IR, the left needs to work together. Might've voted for the eurocommunist PCE but absolutely not in their current state.

[Sic Semper Fascistis]

ngl, I really don't approve of all this thumb-on-the-scales shenanigans. The deal with these interactive games was always that the people vote and the moderator makes up whatever story they want consistent with these results. There's already opportunity for fudging around with the way votes translate into seats, and then of course what government forms is up to you. Just arbitrarily deciding the right-wing should do better "for the sake of balance" is pretty shameless and if this keeps going I'll probably lose interest.

Anyway, PSOE please.

[Arson Plus]

ngl, I really don't approve of all this thumb-on-the-scales shenanigans. The deal with these interactive games was always that the people vote and the moderator makes up whatever story they want consistent with these results. There's already opportunity for fudging around with the way votes translate into seats, and then of course what government forms is up to you. Just arbitrarily deciding the right-wing should do better "for the sake of balance" is pretty shameless and if this keeps going I'll probably lose interest.

Lumine has done the balancing thing for years and he has been very balanced and when the formation of governments have been contested, he has allowed player choice to determine the governments. Having every election result in a left wing government is boring, and thankfully Lumine’s series has avoided that.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

¡Viva el Rey Carlos!

[Sic Semper Fascistis]

ngl, I really don't approve of all this thumb-on-the-scales shenanigans. The deal with these interactive games was always that the people vote and the moderator makes up whatever story they want consistent with these results. There's already opportunity for fudging around with the way votes translate into seats, and then of course what government forms is up to you. Just arbitrarily deciding the right-wing should do better "for the sake of balance" is pretty shameless and if this keeps going I'll probably lose interest.

Lumine has done the balancing thing for years and he has been very balanced and when the formation of governments have been contested, he has allowed player choice to determine the governments. Having every election result in a left wing government is boring, and thankfully Lumine’s series has avoided that.

Left and right are relative concepts. The "balance" is provided by a party system's natural tendency (at least in a healthy democracy) to realign around a center of gravity to provide meaningful competition. This happens constantly throughout history, no matter how well the left or right does (just google "sinistrisme"). And there's plenty of diversity between the left-wing parties to provide plenty of material for interesting power struggles already.

Applying an arbitrary penalty to uphold an artificial notion of "balance" is the lazy way out.

[CheapDollarEra?]

PSOE all the way!!!

[RGM2609]

Let's have some fun with it, PCE!

[Lumine]

A few hours left, Carlism on the lead, PP substantially behind, PSOE/UCD in distant third.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

Carlists

[Lumine]

At long last, the Carlists seize command of the left

1984 General Election

Súarez achieves vengeance and Areilza hangs on,
but its the Carlists who get to lead now

Party		Votes	Seats
PC (Borbón-Parma)		27.9%	118 (+30)
PP (Areilza)		24.1%	104 (+5)
UCD (Suárez)		10.7%	43 (+43)
PSOE (González)		10.7%	34 (-5)
PCE (Gallego)		8.0%	17 (-8)
PSP-IR (Tierno-Galván)		8.0%	12 (-4)
DC (Alzaga)		2.6%	1 (-47)
Nationalists		6%	21 (-14)
Others		2.0%	0

Areilza had certainly surpassed expectations of survival by hanging on for over three years, but there was only so much road to cover before an election became inevitable. Rather that put himself at the mercy of Suárez and his merry band of rebels - for Areilza had been upstaged one time too many by the upstart -, the old and aristocratic Prime Minister decided enough was enough. He was going to call the election, campaign like hell, and hope to god his party could break the extremely low ceiling of the Spanish right since 1977. Having accomplished so much despite the odds, and with Carlism surrounded by a cordon sanitaire, surely he could pull of the miracle again?

To Areilza's relief, this time the - still angry - right flank kept somewhat quieter, allowing the PM to campaign more freely if only out of fear of a left-wing triumph amidst the sour economy mood. And for the most part, the campaign was not an entirely miserable experience, Areilza's painful tours of Southern Spain and the jeering from the jobless being paired with signs of growth. And, as the new DC gave signs of terminal decline due to the ceaseless infighting of a thousand generals under "generalissimo" Alzaga, so there was hope of consolidation of the vote. And because of that hope, PP ignored Suárez and his new populist mood for as much as possible. Surely they were the sole voice of reason around?

But something had shifted. As Tierno-Galván and González ruefully realized as soon as the campaign began, the failed Vote of No Confidence had only weakened the Carlists in the short term in regards to the perception of Carlist competence. In the long term, it had actually cemented the impression of Carlos Hugo as being the real and undisputed leader of the opposition. And as the traditional left struggled to even repeat their past mediocre result, the Carlists were finally on the upswing. Ever rising and growing crowds of red berets gathered at Montejurra to swear loyalty to socialism and their King, and thanks to the invaluable services of Navarra Premier Mariano Zufia - a hardcore left-wing Carlist if there ever was one - the party could also show that, if given the chance, it could lead.

On Election Night, both the Carlists and PP rose to a combined 52% of the vote, suggesting that two main parties could well develop from the wreckage of the multi-party system. But whereas Areilza's seat gains were meager, the Carlist leapfrog finally saw them being rewarded by the electoral system all the way to an unprecedented 118 seats, and undisputed leadership of the left. The nationalist vote drastically receded after the implementation of federalism, punishing CiU, PNV, the Andalusians and others as the Carlists appeared to be receiving much of their past support. All in all, it was finally time for a significant change in the cast of characters who had led Spanish democracy since 77'.

Though having averted collapse, four straight electoral defeats was no longer sustainable for González and Tierno-Galván, who announced their resignations on the spot. So did the heartbroken Alzaga, the lone survivor of the DC in an electoral wipe-out that immediately retired one dozen men who saw themselves as future PM material. Gallego, against most expectations, more or less held together the remnants of the PCE base, but he too would face immediate calls for his resignation. And laughing himself to sleep was the returning Adolfo Suárez, who, while securing an at best anemic third, suddenly retired all of his centrist rivals.

Areilza, strictly speaking, had one final shot of a legislative majority... but it went straight through Suárez and González. Despite the pleas and entreaties from Regent Juan, the notion was left on the drawing board: Areilza could not depend on Suárez after calling the election NOT to depend on him on the first place, and González could no longer speak for socialism. A horrified Zarzuela Palace was notified that there was only one man to be called to form a government: Carlos Hugo de Borbón-Parma, claimant to the throne of Spain.