Who won congressional redistricting this mini-cycle?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Similar to last time, it was a race of tortoise and the hair.

Dems got off to a strong start with the Alabama and Louisiana redraws and it looked like they had opportunities in Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida. Ohio decided to keep its maps and not draw anotehr R gerrymander. With the election of Janet it was expected that Dems could pick up a couple of seats in Wisconsin. Additionally, the Hochulmander was supposed to be on the horizon and it looked likely Dems would likely beat the GOP this year in terms of seat gains and the house becoming more and more likely to flip Dem.

But the GOP managed to draw a very strong gerrymander in North Carolina. They didn't have to end up redrawing Georgia. The Wisconsin maps aren't going to be changed and the Hochulmander was incredibly weak. And it looks like Florida and SC won't be getting a redraw this cycle. The Hochulmander was far weaker than anticipated.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In absolute terms we had:

AL: D + 1
LA: D + 1
NC: R + 3.5
NY: D + 1

Additionally, Rs were marginally able to shore up GA congressional map if that counts for anything

Which is a small win for Rs on net, but I will say Dems underperformed pretty big relative to expectations given all the missed opportunities (NY, FL, GA, SC, WI, ect).

One underrated win for Dems is the GA redraw for state legislature made the State House a lot more vulnerable for Rs; decent chance Biden wins a majority of seats in 2024 imo. Also you obv have the WI redraw, so I think those on net make up for the half seat Rs gained over Ds congressionally.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's kind of a wash. Democrats will be the winners once Wisconsin enacts new maps.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's kind of a wash. Democrats will be the winners once Wisconsin enacts new maps.

Utah too