How Biden 2024 compares to 2004, 2012, and 2020 (222)

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Since we are exactly 222 days out, let's do a comparison of 2 metrics (job approval and h2h polling) between Bush, Obama, and Trump per RCP.

Bush 2004
Approval: 49.2%
Election polling: Bush+1.9

Obama 2012
Approval: 47.7%
Election polling: Obama+5.0

Trump 2020
Approval: 47.2%
Election polling: Biden+5.8

Biden 2024
Approval: 39.9%
Election polling: Trump+1.0

What's interesting is the polling at this point in mid Spring tends to be some of the most accurate of the final result in incumbent races.

[CookieDamage]

Blue avis suddenly deciding that polling at this exact moment in March is gonna be how the final results are gonna look lol

[Redban]

Obama +5 is surprising. National polls were favorable to Romney , I recall by memory. I guess maybe at this point in 2012, Romney was looking a little silly because he had to fight and spend a ton of money to beat Santorum?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Blue avis suddenly deciding that polling at this exact moment in March is gonna be how the final results are gonna look lol

C'mon man, I never said that. It is entirely possible that Biden wins in November by 5 points or so. I was just pointing out that this time period was when all three of both 2004, 2012, and 2020 had the most accurate polling relative the final outcome.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Obama +5 is surprising. National polls were favorable to Romney , I recall by memory. I guess maybe at this point in 2012, Romney was looking a little silly because he had to fight and spend a ton of money to beat Santorum?

Romney was never at any point in control of the race. It seemed that way due to the conservative media outlets and Karl Rove baking it as a narrative. But in reality Obama held a comfortable lead till the very end of the cycle. At best he was able to make it a tossup after the first debate. However, the damage was done at that point, and Obama was able to comfortably escape with a win. If you've ever saw the 49ers Ravens superbowl that was played the following February, I think that's the best analogy. Like the 49ers, Romney almost caught up but couldn't finish it off.

[Senator Incitatus]

Blue avis suddenly deciding that polling at this exact moment in March is gonna be how the final results are gonna look lol

It’s not decisive, of course, but polling doesn’t typically move too much between now and November. The question is whether polling is wrong or some atypical event, like escalating war or a Trump conviction, changes things dramatically.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since we are exactly 222 days out, let's do a comparison of 2 metrics (job approval and h2h polling) between Bush, Obama, and Trump per RCP.

Bush 2004
Approval: 49.2%
Election polling: Bush+1.9

Obama 2012
Approval: 47.7%
Election polling: Obama+5.0

Trump 2020
Approval: 47.2%
Election polling: Biden+5.8

Biden 2024
Approval: 39.9%
Election polling: Trump+1.0

What's interesting is the polling at this point in mid Spring tends to be some of the most accurate of the final result in incumbent races.

The difference in all those Approvals is that it was high unemployment not high inflation and we replicated the blue wall in 22 when Biden was at 41 APPROVALS

High inflation thats why Biden is above Trump because it was 9 percent unemployment in 20 that's why Trump lost

Biden isn't losing in these record low gas prices

[Del Tachi]

This is the first cycle where Democrats have been this consistently down in polling since 2004.

[Mr. Smith]

Since we are exactly 222 days out, let's do a comparison of 2 metrics (job approval and h2h polling) between Bush, Obama, and Trump per RCP.

Bush 2004
Approval: 49.2%
Election polling: Bush+1.9

Obama 2012
Approval: 47.7%
Election polling: Obama+5.0

Trump 2020
Approval: 47.2%
Election polling: Biden+5.8

Biden 2024
Approval: 39.9%
Election polling: Trump+1.0

What's interesting is the polling at this point in mid Spring tends to be some of the most accurate of the final result in incumbent races.

Bush overperformed but still almost lost thanks to Ohio, Obama and Trump underperformed but insulated in the swing states.

[Tekken_Guy]

This is the first cycle where Democrats have been this consistently down in polling since 2004.

Haven’t the polls this cycle been basically 50/50 between Biden and Trump leading?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

This is the first cycle where Democrats have been this consistently down in polling since 2004.

Haven’t the polls this cycle been basically 50/50 between Biden and Trump leading?

Trump has had a steadyish lead in RCP since September at around 1-3 points.

[Del Tachi]

This is the first cycle where Democrats have been this consistently down in polling since 2004.

Haven’t the polls this cycle been basically 50/50 between Biden and Trump leading?

Trump has had a steadyish lead in RCP since September at around 1-3 points.

And the state polls are even better for Trump.

[Tekken_Guy]

This is the first cycle where Democrats have been this consistently down in polling since 2004.

Haven’t the polls this cycle been basically 50/50 between Biden and Trump leading?

Trump has had a steadyish lead in RCP since September at around 1-3 points.

And the state polls are even better for Trump.

Not all of them.

[oldtimer]

This is the first cycle where Democrats have been this consistently down in polling since 2004.

Haven’t the polls this cycle been basically 50/50 between Biden and Trump leading?

Trump has had a steadyish lead in RCP since September at around 1-3 points.

And the state polls are even better for Trump.

Not all of them.

We'll see.

It's 20 years since a republican led in the polls, so it feels unnatural.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

This is the first cycle where Democrats have been this consistently down in polling since 2004.

Haven’t the polls this cycle been basically 50/50 between Biden and Trump leading?

Trump has had a steadyish lead in RCP since September at around 1-3 points.

And the state polls are even better for Trump.

Not all of them.

Out of the state polls the only one that looks somewhat bad for Trump is PA but even there he has a very tiny lead. WI looks close but the polling there tends to be pretty poor overall. Trump is doing decently in GA and MI. Trump is doing much better in AZ than I anticipated. Nevada polls I don't trust regardless what lead Trump has there so those are moot.