Biden campaign youth director: Youth numbers are looking similar to 2012

[wbrocks67]

Interesting thread, too

(Obama won youth by 23% in 2012, similar to 2020)

https://twitter.com/ding3rs/status/1773389528012599515

[Matty]

Cool, release the numbers then

[wbrocks67]

Cool, release the numbers then

I hope the campaign does a similar thing they did in 2020 where they did an inside look at what their internal polling looked like in all the swing states (and it was much closer than most of the public polling IIRC), i wish I could find it online. They literally had a map up with what each state had at the time

[jojoju1998]

The question isn't numbers. It's turnout. Are young voters going to turn out ?

[Tekken_Guy]

The question isn't numbers. It's turnout. Are young voters going to turn out ?

Low youth turnout would lead to a higher Trump youth vote share by default.

[DrScholl]

Cool, release the numbers then

They don't have to. Proving something to nobodies on the internet is not even a priority for a campaign. And even if they were released you wouldn't believe them.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Cool, release the numbers then

They don't have to. Proving something to nobodies on the internet is not even a priority for a campaign. And even if they were released you wouldn't believe them.

Also sometimes they want to keep their cards close to their chest for strategical reasons. Given how gullible Trump seems so be, wouldn't be suprised if part of their strategy is to get Trump to believe a false image of the electoral battleground making them misinvest.

[DaleCooper]

Cool, release the numbers then

I hope the campaign does a similar thing they did in 2020 where they did an inside look at what their internal polling looked like in all the swing states (and it was much closer than most of the public polling IIRC), i wish I could find it online. They literally had a map up with what each state had at the time

Yeah, the Biden 2020 campaign for all of its faults was not the Hillary campaign. They knew Michigan was close at the very end and I believe they knew long before election day that Maine's Senate seat was a lost cause even though no public polling indicated either.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Cool, release the numbers then

I hope the campaign does a similar thing they did in 2020 where they did an inside look at what their internal polling looked like in all the swing states (and it was much closer than most of the public polling IIRC), i wish I could find it online. They literally had a map up with what each state had at the time

Yeah, the Biden 2020 campaign for all of its faults was not the Hillary campaign. They knew Michigan was close at the very end and I believe they knew long before election day that Maine's Senate seat was a lost cause even though no public polling indicated either.

Always been curious by the Biden team's reaction to the 2020 results; it was underwhelming to a lot of folks on this forum but they probably thought they were slight underdogs in the Senate so ultimately winning the Senate was huge. Furthermore, GA was definitely somewhat of a surprise and that can be seen by Biden's relative lack of investment in GA in 2020. I think in his victory speech even Biden said "we didn't see that one coming" or something when it came to Georgia.

[kwabbit]

Cool, release the numbers then

I hope the campaign does a similar thing they did in 2020 where they did an inside look at what their internal polling looked like in all the swing states (and it was much closer than most of the public polling IIRC), i wish I could find it online. They literally had a map up with what each state had at the time

The Biden campaign's messaging on the polls indicates that they aren't seeing that much better themselves. Saying something along the lines of "Polls are broken because of low response rates" does not suggest that the Biden campaign, using similar techniques to the good pollsters, are finding anything different to good pollsters. They might be getting huge sample sizes for young voters and Black voters that is leading to more typical numbers, but if they were winning they would be saying so. Whispers of Democratic internals have also seemingly indicated a Trump +0-2 national picture with Democratic Senators and Representatives running markedly ahead of Biden, which is what public polls are also seeing. The Biden campaign is confident because of the fundamentals of presiding over a strong economy, being better funded, and running against Trump, not because of better internal polling.

[kwabbit]

At this point in 2012, most national polls had Obama well ahead with young voters. It's hard to dig up crosstabs for ancient polls, but none were having Romney ahead as far as I can tell.

This is an extension of a myth that tries to liken Biden 2024 to Obama 2012 despite them being very different. The simple fact is that, outside of a few brief weeks, Obama led Romney by a few points in the average at all times and had a EC advantage. Obama was never losing the tipping point state in 2012, much less by close to the 5 point deficit Biden has faced. Obama was better liked than Romney. He didn't have widespread doubts of basic competency like Biden does. Obama was never really worse than a 75-25 shot to win, Biden has arguably been under 50-50 for six months.

Obama was weaker in two areas: the economy and the strength of his opponent. The economy was still weak and Romney was viewed as a good economic manager, although severe and heartless. Romney was not a great candidate just because he was so repulsive to lower class people, but on the whole better better than Trump.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

At this point in 2012, most national polls had Obama well ahead with young voters. It's hard to dig up crosstabs for ancient polls, but none were having Romney ahead as far as I can tell.

This is an extension of a myth that tries to liken Biden 2024 to Obama 2012 despite them being very different. The simple fact is that, outside of a few brief weeks, Obama led Romney by a few points in the average at all times and had a EC advantage. Obama was never losing the tipping point state in 2012, much less by close to the 5 point deficit Biden has faced. Obama was better liked than Romney. He didn't have widespread doubts of basic competency like Biden does. Obama was never really worse than a 75-25 shot to win, Biden has arguably been under 50-50 for six months.

Obama was weaker in two areas: the economy and the strength of his opponent. The economy was still weak and Romney was viewed as a good economic manager, although severe and heartless. Romney was not a great candidate just because he was so repulsive to lower class people, but on the whole better better than Trump.

The economy isn't much better now honestly. It's just that the unemployment rate is lower but the trade off is much higher inflation. And most of the new jobs are crappy min wage service jobs, if you want anything white collar it's harder than ever.

[heatcharger]

At this point in 2012, most national polls had Obama well ahead with young voters. It's hard to dig up crosstabs for ancient polls, but none were having Romney ahead as far as I can tell.

This is an extension of a myth that tries to liken Biden 2024 to Obama 2012 despite them being very different. The simple fact is that, outside of a few brief weeks, Obama led Romney by a few points in the average at all times and had a EC advantage. Obama was never losing the tipping point state in 2012, much less by close to the 5 point deficit Biden has faced. Obama was better liked than Romney. He didn't have widespread doubts of basic competency like Biden does. Obama was never really worse than a 75-25 shot to win, Biden has arguably been under 50-50 for six months.

Obama was weaker in two areas: the economy and the strength of his opponent. The economy was still weak and Romney was viewed as a good economic manager, although severe and heartless. Romney was not a great candidate just because he was so repulsive to lower class people, but on the whole better better than Trump.

Largely agree — but this is why Romney was worse than TRUMP. Lower class, low status, low propensity voters decide presidential elections. They never felt like Romney was on their side. Now it’s different.

[DaleCooper]

At this point in 2012, most national polls had Obama well ahead with young voters. It's hard to dig up crosstabs for ancient polls, but none were having Romney ahead as far as I can tell.

This is an extension of a myth that tries to liken Biden 2024 to Obama 2012 despite them being very different. The simple fact is that, outside of a few brief weeks, Obama led Romney by a few points in the average at all times and had a EC advantage. Obama was never losing the tipping point state in 2012, much less by close to the 5 point deficit Biden has faced. Obama was better liked than Romney. He didn't have widespread doubts of basic competency like Biden does. Obama was never really worse than a 75-25 shot to win, Biden has arguably been under 50-50 for six months.

Obama was weaker in two areas: the economy and the strength of his opponent. The economy was still weak and Romney was viewed as a good economic manager, although severe and heartless. Romney was not a great candidate just because he was so repulsive to lower class people, but on the whole better better than Trump.

The economy isn't much better now honestly. It's just that the unemployment rate is lower but the trade off is much higher inflation. And most of the new jobs are crappy min wage service jobs, if you want anything white collar it's harder than ever.

This delusion is really bizarre. Crappy service jobs are paying extremely well right now. White collar jobs are desperate to hire people too. I honestly think the main issue is that a lot of people took the free COVID money and secretly hoped that they'd get paid to do nothing for the rest of their lives.

[wbrocks67]

Cool, release the numbers then

I hope the campaign does a similar thing they did in 2020 where they did an inside look at what their internal polling looked like in all the swing states (and it was much closer than most of the public polling IIRC), i wish I could find it online. They literally had a map up with what each state had at the time

The Biden campaign's messaging on the polls indicates that they aren't seeing that much better themselves. Saying something along the lines of "Polls are broken because of low response rates" does not suggest that the Biden campaign, using similar techniques to the good pollsters, are finding anything different to good pollsters. They might be getting huge sample sizes for young voters and Black voters that is leading to more typical numbers, but if they were winning they would be saying so. Whispers of Democratic internals have also seemingly indicated a Trump +0-2 national picture with Democratic Senators and Representatives running markedly ahead of Biden, which is what public polls are also seeing. The Biden campaign is confident because of the fundamentals of presiding over a strong economy, being better funded, and running against Trump, not because of better internal polling.

I'd have to look up the article again but I'm pretty sure this was from the press team, not from the official campaign appartus/O'Malley Dillon, etc. So I wouldn't say that that off hand remark was something coming from the campaign indirectly.

However, depends on the context too. If that person was talking about the polls showing young voters going to Trump by 18%, then yes, that polling is almost assuredly broken.

I'd have to find it as well, but there was an article on Axios the other day about Nevada and the insiders in Biden campaign saying it was a tossup, so I would say their polling probably suggests a slightly brighter picture than a lot of the public polling we're seeing.

I would trust them more than not though, again given how on the mark they were in 2020. They were arguing that the race was very close and a jump ball in many of the swing states, and people derided them at the time for it as a fundraising ploy. Turns out they were actually telling the truth!

[Ferguson97]

This delusion is really bizarre. Crappy service jobs are paying extremely well right now. White collar jobs are desperate to hire people too. I honestly think the main issue is that a lot of people took the free COVID money and secretly hoped that they'd get paid to do nothing for the rest of their lives.

There's also the fact that three very specific sectors - finance, tech, and news media - are doing "meh" compared to every other sector, and those sectors have an astronomical influence on how the economy is framed.