Why does CA-34 struggle to elect Hispanic candidates?

[I’m not Stu]

Jimmy Gomez almost lost at least once. Why does this happen in a largely Hispanic district?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Presumably David Kim has profited from differential turnout.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Biggest thing is probably Hispanics tend to be very low turnout. We see this in some other SoCal seats and seats like TX-18 and TX-33 which should functionally be Hispanic based on their topline demographics, aren't because of how poorly Hispanics turnout. Often, a seat needs to be around 70% Hispanic to truly be functional.

Another factor could be the Hispanic vote is often pretty diverse; it can be harder to get Hispanics to "block-vote" the way black voters often do, especially when there are multiple different ethnicities involved.

[kwabbit]

It's not really differential turnout surprisingly. Turnout% is pretty similar across the district except in the higher turnout Highland Park. I don't have the precinct breakdown, as Redistricter lumps all the Dems together, but it's a relatively Hispanic area. My guess is that Kim does really well in Koreatown and Downtown and is competitive in the more educated parts of the district even if they are Hispanic. Gomez wins the less educated Hispanic areas.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

People just might not like him as their representative

[Sol]

Yeah Gomez for whatever reason has a tendency to attract left-wing challengers who can run up the score in the western part of the district. It's not super obvious to me why that's the case -- he seems like a pretty left-leaning politician who the left of the party would like -- but that's the pattern.

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah Gomez for whatever reason has a tendency to attract left-wing challengers who can run up the score in the western part of the district. It's not super obvious to me why that's the case -- he seems like a pretty left-leaning politician who the left of the party would like -- but that's the pattern.

Beyond the Koreatown demographics, I think it just comes down to how renter-dominated the voter base of it, Downtown, and Pico-Union are compared to anywhere else of the city. That aligns the west together and encourages candidates from their community to run, even though its not homogenous under other demographic measurements.

[pikachu]

Could be some version of differential turnout

In early absentee ballot returns in 2017, in an open-seat special election between Gomez and Korean American lawyer Robert Lee Ahn, Korean Americans made up nearly a quarter of votes, although they were only 6% of the district.

Kim's also the DSA candidate for w/e reason. Irrespective of what you think of their politics, they have a decent track record in winning LA local election recently.

[ottermax]

I live here!

CA-34 is one of the few Latino majority seats where your name / identity is not the only thing that you need to win. We have the strongest presence of DSA voters probably anywhere outside NYC and they have very high turnout. Additionally there is a strong Korean voting community that seems to support Kim despite his left wing views. As others have mentioned renters dominate the vote here as well.

Gomez sends significant amounts of mail, and has taken PAC money historically so I think it is a turnoff to younger, progressive voters.

Finally, I think there is just a desire in this district for a more vocal AOC type representative. Gomez constantly sends youtube ads and mailers with pics with Bernie and AOC... and it doesn't seem to work, so this year he is sending lots of mail about how he rejects corporate PAC money (which is news to me).

Keep in mind 2/3 city councilors for this district are DSA members, with a 3rd possible on the way if Jurado can defeat De Leon.

And Kim does quite a bit of grassroots on the ground campaigning - I've seen him in person multiple times outside my apartment, or around the community (highway overpasses, community events, DSA events), but I have never ever encountered Gomez in person or even his staff anywhere.

[I’m not Stu]

Will Gomez win or lose this year?

[ottermax]

Will Gomez win or lose this year?

I think Gomez is always favored in presidential election years - higher turnout benefits him with more low-information voters who may depend on name recognition.

[I’m not Stu]

Does Gomez usually win East Los Angeles?