RFK Jr: Over/Under Ross Perot's 1996 vote share (8.4%)

[JRP1994]

Vote

[7,052,770]

Way under. He still Tweets almost daily about vaccines.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Honestly, I’d put the over-under at 1% and go with the under.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'll take the under.

I don’t think he does better than 3.5% at the most generous.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol he isn't in the ballot in 50 states he just decided to run an Indy bid not a Libertarian ticket and just assume to get on ballot

[Redban]

He will double Perot 1996

[Open Source Intelligence]

Vote

Depends on ballot access.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Way under.  I think he foreclosed any possibility of building any momentum with his terrible VP pick.

[Cyrusman]

Under, but it doesn't mean he won't have a big impact. I see him getting 4-6%

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I honestly have no idea. I don't think he gets 15% but I think he gets at least 5%.

[Lambsbread]

Under by approximately 6% at least

[Eraserhead]

Under, how is this even a question? He'd be lucky to beat Gary Johnson 2016.

[Ferguson97]

I would be absolutely shocked if he got more than 5%.

[dspNY]

Almost certainly under. He gets 5% at most

[Sir Mohamed]

Under (sane)

He'll get Gary Johnson 2016 numbers at best.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Easy money, under

[Yelnoc]

I also voted under. However, I am going to break from the consensus and say he beats Nader's 2.74% vote share (2000). I think the interesting over under would be John Anderson's 1980 vote share of 6.61%.

[Independents for Nihilism]

I'll take the under too, but I still think he beats Johnson '16. Anderson '80 would be a good benchmark.

[henster]

If he manages to get on the ballot in Cali & NY at least, it's possible he gets in the ballpark of 2%. But currently he's on track to get on the ballot in at most 10 states, he'd be lucky to crack 1% nationally.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If he manages to get on the ballot in Cali & NY at least, it's possible he gets in the ballpark of 2%. But currently he's on track to get on the ballot in at most 10 states, he'd be lucky to crack 1% nationally.

A more interesting over/under might be the on the number of states where he gets on the ballot.

[Tintrlvr]

How about Over/Under Kanye West 2020?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even if he finds himself on ballot in crucial states Biden won 20 on Jorgensen numbers, so Biden can still win

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

How about Over/Under Kanye West 2020?

Over, even I’m not that bearish on RFK Jr.

[Mr. Smith]

Under, how is this even a question? He'd be lucky to beat Gary Johnson 2012.

[Gracile]

His best-case scenario is probably around Johnson '16 numbers (I personally think slightly less than that).