By popular demand, I am resurrecting this poll. I originally did this poll in March:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=54676.0but was asked to start it up again, in case opinions have shifted. Last time, Obama and Warner ran well ahead of everyone else. Will the same still be true three months later? Anyway, here's the explanation of the poll:
OK, for the purpose of this poll, assume the Republicans win the 2008 presidential election. Whichever scenario for a GOP victory in '08 that you think is most likely, assume that that happens. Now here's the question: In the spring of 2009 (less than two years from now), who do you think will be regarded as the early leading contenders for the 2012 Democratic nomination? Pick two choices: the "famous frontrunner" and the "unknown frontrunner".
The "famous frontrunner" is whoever you think will be regarded as the early favorite among the potential candidates who are already well known nationally by the spring of '09. This will probably be whoever is leading in the really early 2012 polls taken in early 2009. (In early 2005, this would have been Hillary Clinton for the Dems, and either Giuliani or McCain for the GOP.) This doesn't have to be someone who's already well known as of 2007! It could be someone you think will become famous within the next two years. Maybe as the 2008 VP candidate or one of the unsuccessful '08 presidential candidates. (For example, Richardson isn't that well known now, but he'll likely become famous if he does OK in the '08 primaries, so you could pick him.)
The "unknown frontrunner" is someone who you think will still be relatively unknown by the spring of 2009, but will be regarded by political insiders as a leading candidate for the nomination (for whatever reason). Throughout much of 2005 and into early 2006, George Allen and Mark Warner were arguably the "unknown frontrunners" for the GOP and Democratic nominations for '08 respectively. They had very little national name recognition and didn't do well in national polls, but political insiders were predicting that they would be leading candidates for their nominations. (Obviously, it didn't work out that way in this case.)
I know I should maybe have split this into two separate polls, but I prefer combining the discussion in one place. Just click two boxes in the poll, one for the "famous frontrunner" and one for the "unknown frontrunner". (Apologies if your favorite candidate is not included. I obviously couldn't cover everybody. And I have made a couple of changes to the possible choices since March, but they're mostly the same.)
My picks (haven't changed since March):
famous frontrunner: Barack Obama (most likely '08 candidate to have a decent chance the next time if he doesn't make it this time, IMHO)
unknown frontrunner: I think it might be Mark Warner again. Though Eliot Spitzer is a possibility, as NY governors tend to get noticed by the national media.
Poll
