Marist TX: Trump +11

[wbrocks67]

This is a strong signal.  Marist is traditionally one of the most Dem-leaning non-partisan polls out there.

This isn't true? They nailed 2022 basically right on the dot. They have been more dem-leaning in the past, but you could say the same about NYT/Siena for example too (and just about everyone else in 2020)

Marist's definitely voting was the most accurate to the results in 2022, so them having Trump +7 sounds about right; lines up with the average right now which seems to be about Trump +7 in TX.

[President Johnson]

Among those certain to vote it’s Trump +7

That sounds more plausible. At this point I expect anything between Trump +4 to Trump +8.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Not the best analysis here in my opinion.

No poll is going to have perfect cross tabs. Go look up any poll that nailed the 2022 results. I guarantee you’ll find unrealistic cross tabs.

Many here are saying Trump can’t win Texas by 11 with no reason other than their priors are that Texas should be close. Atlas loves competitive Texas. Part of it is Dem bias and part of it is obsession with trends.

I’m no Trump fan and I too am skeptical of him winning Texas by double digits but a lead of 11% in a poll with a democrat-friendly electorate is an unambiguous good sign for him. Most of atlas thought Abbott was vulnerable in summer 2022 and thought he’d win by single digits up until Election Day.

As far what it would look like, just take Abbott’s coalition and knock a few points off college ed whites and add a few points to non-college voters. Or take a uniform shift of 5 points from 2020 which is what most polls are showing. Or assume minority turnout tanks from 2020. It’s not that crazy. Every statewide race was decided by nearly 11 points in 2022.

Ken Paxton literally won by almost 10 pts and he's a worse candidate than Cruz and possibly Trump lol

[kwabbit]

This is a strong signal.  Marist is traditionally one of the most Dem-leaning non-partisan polls out there.

This isn't true? They nailed 2022 basically right on the dot. They have been more dem-leaning in the past, but you could say the same about NYT/Siena for example too (and just about everyone else in 2020)

Marist's definitely voting was the most accurate to the results in 2022, so them having Trump +7 sounds about right; lines up with the average right now which seems to be about Trump +7 in TX.

They have Trump +11 in Texas for RV. Definitely going to vote is similar to, but not the same as, LV. An LV would be in the middle of definitely going to vote and RV, since some unlikely to vote people do vote and they seem to be leaning towards Trump.

[Tekken_Guy]

Not the best analysis here in my opinion.

No poll is going to have perfect cross tabs. Go look up any poll that nailed the 2022 results. I guarantee you’ll find unrealistic cross tabs.

Many here are saying Trump can’t win Texas by 11 with no reason other than their priors are that Texas should be close. Atlas loves competitive Texas. Part of it is Dem bias and part of it is obsession with trends.

I’m no Trump fan and I too am skeptical of him winning Texas by double digits but a lead of 11% in a poll with a democrat-friendly electorate is an unambiguous good sign for him. Most of atlas thought Abbott was vulnerable in summer 2022 and thought he’d win by single digits up until Election Day.

As far what it would look like, just take Abbott’s coalition and knock a few points off college ed whites and add a few points to non-college voters. Or take a uniform shift of 5 points from 2020 which is what most polls are showing. Or assume minority turnout tanks from 2020. It’s not that crazy. Every statewide race was decided by nearly 11 points in 2022.

Most polls show the overall election as a toss-up though. Texas isn’t voting double digits R outside of a Trump landslide win.