The New Spain - 1982 Vote of No Confidence

[Lumine]

₁

PSOE leaders Felipe González and Alfonso Guerra,
Faced with a major strategic dilemma

May 1982

Testing a novel constitutional provision,
Carlos Hugo gambles it all against Areilza

CONTEXT: Areilza's first year in office proved unkind, featuring immediate and dangerous splits on his unwieldy coalition, a very muted start to economic recovery, and ceaseless trouble with most of the new regional governments, the vast majority of which feature opposition coalitions in power. Thus far, Areilza has been aided in the Cortes by the fact that the constitution mandates constructive votes of no confidence, meaning that in order to topple the government an absolute majority of deputies must vote for another candidate to become Prime Minister.

And yet, keenly conscious that Areilza could be more vulnerable than expected, the Red Prince has been persuaded to gamble big: by presenting such a vote of no confidence with himself as the candidate, Carlos Hugo has dared the rest of the opposition to make a difficult choice: back Areilza (even through abstentions), or put him and Carlism in power. Thus far, the other left-wing parties have upheld a cordon sanitaire originally imposed by Santiago Carrillo, but with his departure as PCE Secretary General, it is no longer certain this will hold.

Thus Felipe González (PSOE), Enrique Tierno-Galván (PSP) and the new Communist leader Ignacio Gallego (PCE), the latter of which being keen to repudiate Carrillo's "eurocommunist deviations"; must decide. Backing Carlos Hugo will only get him to 168 deputies at best, but eight defections from the nationalists could be possible if the left unites...

The Dilemma:

Back Carlos Hugo in the vote: At least one out of the three left-wing leaders breaks cover, breaching the cordon sanitaire for the sake of removing Areilza and causing a stampede in the Cortes. In doing this, the left-wing parties run the risk of giving Carlism the keys to power if Carlos Hugo succeeds, and perhaps strengthening him even if he narrowly misses out; but they would also ensure the first firmly-left wing government since the Transition started, and perhaps even the reopening of a number of policy questions closed down due to the constant need to compromise.

Oppose Carlos Hugo in the vote: Deciding that Carrillo was right in attempting to shut Carlism out - by virtue of its inherently disruptive nature and its ideological incoherence -, and that a Carlos Hugo government would only result in unhelpful chaos at a very difficult moment for the nation, the left wing parties decide not to support the VONC, most likely by abstaining. In doing so, they'd reason a weakened Carlos Hugo could enable one of them to leapfrog Carlism in the next election, their consciences barely assuaged by Areilza's impeccable democratic credentials despite his right-wing views. And yet, Carlos Hugo could still take revenge...

Two days.
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^{1.) Original Image: Wikimedia Commons.}

[S019]

Oppose Hugo

[FT-02 Senator A.F.E. 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Long live Hugo!

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Deeply-closeted tradcaths for Titoism!

[Antonio the Sixth]

F**k it, let's back him and see how it goes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Back Hugo

[RGM2609]

#NeverCarlist

[VPH]

Yes, lefty monarchism for the win!

[Lumine]

The deputies were laughing. Though years of preparation and training had allowed Carlos Hugo to become fluent in Spanish, his French accent betrayed him still when he got over anxious, and the unexpected - to him - acrimony of the VONC debate had increasingly flustered the Red Prince as he tried to answer accusation after accusation. Instead of the planned evisceration of Areilza's mediocre results, the debate resembled more an examination of Carlos Hugo himself as the alternative candidate, and a prime occasion for his left-wing rivals to tear their main competitor apart.

Though neither Gallego (PCE) nor Tierno-Galván (PSP) were enthused to back Carlos Hugo, they might have done so had PSOE broke ranks. And for a moment, subject to intense pressure from the PSOE's left wing and from González's own deputy (Guerra) in favor of the unity of the left, the socialists almost did. But González, never one predisposed to surrendering the spotlight, decided otherwise. It was much too dangerous to let Carlism in. For better or worse, González still had a shot to lead the Spanish left in the future, and in his mind, that was enough. And Carlos Hugo never knew how close it had been.

The bulk of Areilza's unstable coalition held, rejecting the VONC with 93 votes in favor (the Carlists and the most radical nationalists) and 166 against. A record 91 deputies abstained, neither supporting Carlos Hugo nor endorsing Areilza. Thus the government survived, confident that it could - barely - hang onto power in the absence of a realistic alternative.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Gracias, Cortes!