March 19th Official Primary Thread (AZ, FL, IL, KS, OH)

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Illinois: Biden 91.3%, Trump 80.7%
Ohio: Biden 87.1%, Trump 79.2%
Florida: Trump 81.2%
Arizona: Biden 89.5%, Trump 77.5%
Kansas: Biden 83.8%, Trump 75.5%

Who is the one failing to coalesce the base at this point?

Not only is Trump consistently still losing ~20% of the primary, he's still doing worse than he did in 2020 - when he was the incumbent. He got less votes in FL this year (and there were less votes overall in the contest, too). Feels like this is a continued underrepresented situation that the press doesn't want to talk about - they continue to parrot polls that say 97% of Trump 2020 voters are on board or that the entire Republican base is on board, when it's clear - even in *closed primaries* that Trump is getting a substantial protest vote - and a bigger one than Biden.

Biden got ripped for getting 81% in Michigan and 100,000 people voting against him. That happened to Trump in Ohio, Illinois, Arizona and Florida last night - with candidates that have dropped out! And you don't hear a peep about it!

This doesn't even make sense.. of course, he'll do worse in a open primary than when he was a incumbent (when he faced Joe Walsh and Bill Weld lmao).

Many of the states listed above Haley was still a declared candidate for much of the mail in vote period.

[wbrocks67]

Illinois: Biden 91.3%, Trump 80.7%
Ohio: Biden 87.1%, Trump 79.2%
Florida: Trump 81.2%
Arizona: Biden 89.5%, Trump 77.5%
Kansas: Biden 83.8%, Trump 75.5%

Who is the one failing to coalesce the base at this point?

Not only is Trump consistently still losing ~20% of the primary, he's still doing worse than he did in 2020 - when he was the incumbent. He got less votes in FL this year (and there were less votes overall in the contest, too). Feels like this is a continued underrepresented situation that the press doesn't want to talk about - they continue to parrot polls that say 97% of Trump 2020 voters are on board or that the entire Republican base is on board, when it's clear - even in *closed primaries* that Trump is getting a substantial protest vote - and a bigger one than Biden.

Biden got ripped for getting 81% in Michigan and 100,000 people voting against him. That happened to Trump in Ohio, Illinois, Arizona and Florida last night - with candidates that have dropped out! And you don't hear a peep about it!

This doesn't even make sense.. of course, he'll do worse in a open primary than when he was a incumbent.

Many of the states listed above Haley was still a declared candidate for much of the mail in vote period.

Even when Haley was still a candidate, she wasn't a viable one. It was still a Trump protest vote in all intents and purposes.

If Trump is so strong as predicted, he should've been able to top his vote # from 2020. It was an uncompetitive primary in which there was no reason for people to come out. This was a "contested" primary and Trump couldn't even top his numbers from that year, which should've been very easily achievable given that this is more of a real primary than that was. It's not just that though - there was less total Republican votes this year than 2020 - when Trump ran essentially unopposed. That doesn't scream "Trump voters are coming out of the woodwork to vote for him"!

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Illinois: Biden 91.3%, Trump 80.7%
Ohio: Biden 87.1%, Trump 79.2%
Florida: Trump 81.2%
Arizona: Biden 89.5%, Trump 77.5%
Kansas: Biden 83.8%, Trump 75.5%

Who is the one failing to coalesce the base at this point?

Not only is Trump consistently still losing ~20% of the primary, he's still doing worse than he did in 2020 - when he was the incumbent. He got less votes in FL this year (and there were less votes overall in the contest, too). Feels like this is a continued underrepresented situation that the press doesn't want to talk about - they continue to parrot polls that say 97% of Trump 2020 voters are on board or that the entire Republican base is on board, when it's clear - even in *closed primaries* that Trump is getting a substantial protest vote - and a bigger one than Biden.

Biden got ripped for getting 81% in Michigan and 100,000 people voting against him. That happened to Trump in Ohio, Illinois, Arizona and Florida last night - with candidates that have dropped out! And you don't hear a peep about it!

This doesn't even make sense.. of course, he'll do worse in a open primary than when he was a incumbent.

Many of the states listed above Haley was still a declared candidate for much of the mail in vote period.

Even when Haley was still a candidate, she wasn't a viable one. It was still a Trump protest vote in all intents and purposes.

If Trump is so strong as predicted, he should've been able to top his vote # from 2020. It was an uncompetitive primary in which there was no reason for people to come out. This was a "contested" primary and Trump couldn't even top his numbers from that year, which should've been very easily achievable given that this is more of a real primary than that was. It's not just that though - there was less total Republican votes this year than 2020 - when Trump ran essentially unopposed. That doesn't scream "Trump voters are coming out of the woodwork to vote for him"!

Haley was very well funded and had a professional campaign apparatus.. same can not be said for Joe Walsh and Bill Weld.

Its just analytically dishonest to repeatedly lord over Bidens performance as a incumbent president in comparison to his opposition in a open primary.. its the least you expect of him to repeatedly hit 85% against what only be described as token opposition.  

FYI my personal view is that Biden has had a acceptable performance during the primary season and the panic over results such as Michigan was over exaggerated. 

[wbrocks67]

Illinois: Biden 91.3%, Trump 80.7%
Ohio: Biden 87.1%, Trump 79.2%
Florida: Trump 81.2%
Arizona: Biden 89.5%, Trump 77.5%
Kansas: Biden 83.8%, Trump 75.5%

Who is the one failing to coalesce the base at this point?

Not only is Trump consistently still losing ~20% of the primary, he's still doing worse than he did in 2020 - when he was the incumbent. He got less votes in FL this year (and there were less votes overall in the contest, too). Feels like this is a continued underrepresented situation that the press doesn't want to talk about - they continue to parrot polls that say 97% of Trump 2020 voters are on board or that the entire Republican base is on board, when it's clear - even in *closed primaries* that Trump is getting a substantial protest vote - and a bigger one than Biden.

Biden got ripped for getting 81% in Michigan and 100,000 people voting against him. That happened to Trump in Ohio, Illinois, Arizona and Florida last night - with candidates that have dropped out! And you don't hear a peep about it!

This doesn't even make sense.. of course, he'll do worse in a open primary than when he was a incumbent.

Many of the states listed above Haley was still a declared candidate for much of the mail in vote period.

Even when Haley was still a candidate, she wasn't a viable one. It was still a Trump protest vote in all intents and purposes.

If Trump is so strong as predicted, he should've been able to top his vote # from 2020. It was an uncompetitive primary in which there was no reason for people to come out. This was a "contested" primary and Trump couldn't even top his numbers from that year, which should've been very easily achievable given that this is more of a real primary than that was. It's not just that though - there was less total Republican votes this year than 2020 - when Trump ran essentially unopposed. That doesn't scream "Trump voters are coming out of the woodwork to vote for him"!

Haley was very well funded and had a professional campaign apparatus.. same can not be said for Joe Walsh and Bill Weld.

Its just analytically dishonest to repeatedly lord over Bidens performance as a incumbent president in comparison to his opposition in a open primary.. its the least you expect of him to repeatedly hit 85% against what only be described as token opposition.  

FYI my personal view is that Biden has had a acceptable performance during the primary season and the panic over results such as Michigan was over exaggerated. 

A) by the time Florida started voting (and IL, OH, KS, etc. did), Haley was close to or at least dropping out. Same with Arizona, where even with election day votes, Trump still got <80% of the vote.

The point here is that you can't have it both ways. You can't go on and on about how Trump's supporters have somehow increased from 2020 when the primaries turnout and his own performance have been lower compared to 2020 when he was an incumbent and should've been low turnout anyway. My point isn't against you personally, but the narrative(TM) that Trump somehow has not only kept all of his 2020 voters, but *added* them too this time around, when basically this entire primary has shown he still has serious problems within the Republican base and has major issues with suburban voters and Independents especially.

It's exactly why I don't take polls showing him doing *better* among Independents and Suburban voters among others seriously.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Illinois: Biden 91.3%, Trump 80.7%
Ohio: Biden 87.1%, Trump 79.2%
Florida: Trump 81.2%
Arizona: Biden 89.5%, Trump 77.5%
Kansas: Biden 83.8%, Trump 75.5%

Who is the one failing to coalesce the base at this point?

Not only is Trump consistently still losing ~20% of the primary, he's still doing worse than he did in 2020 - when he was the incumbent. He got less votes in FL this year (and there were less votes overall in the contest, too). Feels like this is a continued underrepresented situation that the press doesn't want to talk about - they continue to parrot polls that say 97% of Trump 2020 voters are on board or that the entire Republican base is on board, when it's clear - even in *closed primaries* that Trump is getting a substantial protest vote - and a bigger one than Biden.

Biden got ripped for getting 81% in Michigan and 100,000 people voting against him. That happened to Trump in Ohio, Illinois, Arizona and Florida last night - with candidates that have dropped out! And you don't hear a peep about it!

This doesn't even make sense.. of course, he'll do worse in a open primary than when he was a incumbent.

Many of the states listed above Haley was still a declared candidate for much of the mail in vote period.

Even when Haley was still a candidate, she wasn't a viable one. It was still a Trump protest vote in all intents and purposes.

If Trump is so strong as predicted, he should've been able to top his vote # from 2020. It was an uncompetitive primary in which there was no reason for people to come out. This was a "contested" primary and Trump couldn't even top his numbers from that year, which should've been very easily achievable given that this is more of a real primary than that was. It's not just that though - there was less total Republican votes this year than 2020 - when Trump ran essentially unopposed. That doesn't scream "Trump voters are coming out of the woodwork to vote for him"!

Haley was very well funded and had a professional campaign apparatus.. same can not be said for Joe Walsh and Bill Weld.

Its just analytically dishonest to repeatedly lord over Bidens performance as a incumbent president in comparison to his opposition in a open primary.. its the least you expect of him to repeatedly hit 85% against what only be described as token opposition.  

FYI my personal view is that Biden has had a acceptable performance during the primary season and the panic over results such as Michigan was over exaggerated.  

A) by the time Florida started voting (and IL, OH, KS, etc. did), Haley was close to or at least dropping out. Same with Arizona, where even with election day votes, Trump still got <80% of the vote.

The point here is that you can't have it both ways. You can't go on and on about how Trump's supporters have somehow increased from 2020 when the primaries turnout and his own performance have been lower compared to 2020 when he was an incumbent and should've been low turnout anyway. My point isn't against you personally, but the narrative(TM) that Trump somehow has not only kept all of his 2020 voters, but *added* them too this time around, when basically this entire primary has shown he still has serious problems within the Republican base and has major issues with suburban voters and Independents especially.

It's exactly why I don't take polls showing him doing *better* among Independents and Suburban voters among others seriously.

I don't believe that correlating primary performance (especially as a non incumbent) and general performance is a exact science.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Great sign for November that Arizona has still only counted 80% of the vote lol.

[xavier110]

Great sign for November that Arizona has still only counted 80% of the vote lol.

There’s probably about 50-75k vote left (https://apps.arizona.vote/electioninfo/BPS/59/0). So 80% isn’t exactly accurate when a million ballots have already been tabulated. More like 5-10% of total vote is likely outstanding.

The problem remains the idiots who drop off their early ballots at the polls. It’s especially egregious when this ballot had one race on it. I kinda get it when faced with 50+ different races and ballot questions and judges.

The GE will be a sh*tshow regardless.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Great sign for November that Arizona has still only counted 80% of the vote lol.

There’s probably about 50-75k vote left (https://apps.arizona.vote/electioninfo/BPS/59/0). So 80% isn’t exactly accurate when a million ballots have already been tabulated. More like 5-10% of total vote is likely outstanding.

The problem remains the idiots who drop off their early ballots at the polls. It’s especially egregious when this ballot had one race on it. I kinda get it when faced with 50+ different races and ballot questions and judges.

The GE will be a sh*tshow regardless.

Appreciate that clarification.. seems the NYT estimate of whats left is incorrect.

[Skill and Chance]

Great sign for November that Arizona has still only counted 80% of the vote lol.

There’s probably about 50-75k vote left (https://apps.arizona.vote/electioninfo/BPS/59/0). So 80% isn’t exactly accurate when a million ballots have already been tabulated. More like 5-10% of total vote is likely outstanding.

The problem remains the idiots who drop off their early ballots at the polls. It’s especially egregious when this ballot had one race on it. I kinda get it when faced with 50+ different races and ballot questions and judges.

The GE will be a sh*tshow regardless.

Showing up to the precinct on election day with a voted absentee ballot is kind of bizarre behavior all things considered. 

[xavier110]

Great sign for November that Arizona has still only counted 80% of the vote lol.

There’s probably about 50-75k vote left (https://apps.arizona.vote/electioninfo/BPS/59/0). So 80% isn’t exactly accurate when a million ballots have already been tabulated. More like 5-10% of total vote is likely outstanding.

The problem remains the idiots who drop off their early ballots at the polls. It’s especially egregious when this ballot had one race on it. I kinda get it when faced with 50+ different races and ballot questions and judges.

The GE will be a sh*tshow regardless.

Showing up to the precinct on election day with a voted absentee ballot is kind of bizarre behavior all things considered.  

I agree, but a significant portion of AZ voters love doing it, and it’s the primary reason why AZ elections are dragged out. They actually do an excellent job of getting the early and Election Day vote tabulated fast. It’s almost entirely these late/day of “early” ballots that require multiple steps to process. They should really make ballots due before EDay and require those that show up to physically vote. Or have them verify their identity (and expedite processing) at the poll booth when dropping off the ballot.

These conversations, however, devolve into “ban mail in voting” on the GOP side (which is just politically untenable when 80-90% of the state is enrolled and enjoys it) and “voting rights/accessibility” on D side.

[wbrocks67]

I'm still shocked that more people aren't picking up on Kansas' Trump protest vote? Trump only getting 75% there in a state (he won) that voted I think entirely after Haley dropped out seems pretty substantial??

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm still shocked that more people aren't picking up on Kansas' Trump protest vote? Trump only getting 75% there in a state (he won) that voted I think entirely after Haley dropped out seems pretty substantial??

"None of the names shown" created a bunch of it which is hard to make much sense of.

[ralstonfan65]

I'm still shocked that more people aren't picking up on Kansas' Trump protest vote? Trump only getting 75% there in a state (he won) that voted I think entirely after Haley dropped out seems pretty substantial??

In Kansas, a lot of voters who are effectively Democrats are registered as Republicans to influence Republican primaries, especially at the state senate and house level in the suburbs. There were a lot of controversies during the Brownback administration that contributed to this as well as the ancestrally-Republican tilt of Kansas.

[Eraserhead]

I'm still shocked that more people aren't picking up on Kansas' Trump protest vote? Trump only getting 75% there in a state (he won) that voted I think entirely after Haley dropped out seems pretty substantial??

Biden didn't exactly kill it in Kansas either and he was up against nothing. Haley ran a real campaign. What was Bernie pulling against Biden post-dropout? Not that she was ever as serious for Trump as he was for Biden but that might be something interesting to compare it to.

[wbrocks67]

I'm still shocked that more people aren't picking up on Kansas' Trump protest vote? Trump only getting 75% there in a state (he won) that voted I think entirely after Haley dropped out seems pretty substantial??

Biden didn't exactly kill it in Kansas either and he was up against nothing. Haley ran a real campaign. What was Bernie pulling against Biden post-dropout? Not that she was ever as serious for Trump as he was for Biden but that might something interesting to compare it to.

I mean, given its a red state, Biden would theoretically be more likely to face issues in his own primary than Trump. Haley ran a real campaign... but she dropped out weeks ago now and voting started after that.

Even with that being said, Biden got 77% in 2020. Trump did even worse, and its a Trump +16 state.

[DaleCooper]

I'm still shocked that more people aren't picking up on Kansas' Trump protest vote? Trump only getting 75% there in a state (he won) that voted I think entirely after Haley dropped out seems pretty substantial??

It doesn't count.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'm still shocked that more people aren't picking up on Kansas' Trump protest vote? Trump only getting 75% there in a state (he won) that voted I think entirely after Haley dropped out seems pretty substantial??

Biden didn't exactly kill it in Kansas either and he was up against nothing. Haley ran a real campaign. What was Bernie pulling against Biden post-dropout? Not that she was ever as serious for Trump as he was for Biden but that might something interesting to compare it to.

Wot

[White Cloud]

I'm still shocked that more people aren't picking up on Kansas' Trump protest vote? Trump only getting 75% there in a state (he won) that voted I think entirely after Haley dropped out seems pretty substantial??

Early voting for the Kansas primary election started on February 28, a full week before Haley dropped out. She was able to bank many votes during that week that contributed to the 16% she received. If you look at the "protest" vote, on the Dem side 10% of voters voted for "None of the names" and on the Rep side only 5% of voters voted for "None of the names". Voting for none is the definition of a protest vote. And percentage-wise, many more Dems did that than Reps. The only reason Trump didn't receive 80%+ is because Haley banked a lot of votes in the early voting period when she was still an active candidate.

[Holmes]

I'm still shocked that more people aren't picking up on Kansas' Trump protest vote? Trump only getting 75% there in a state (he won) that voted I think entirely after Haley dropped out seems pretty substantial??

Early voting for the Kansas primary election started on February 28, a full week before Haley dropped out. She was able to bank many votes during that week that contributed to the 16% she received. If you look at the "protest" vote, on the Dem side 10% of voters voted for "None of the names" and on the Rep side only 5% of voters voted for "None of the names". Voting for none is the definition of a protest vote. And percentage-wise, many more Dems did that than Reps. The only reason Trump didn't receive 80%+ is because Haley banked a lot of votes in the early voting period when she was still an active candidate.

Who's to say many of those Haley voters wouldn't have voted NOTA?

[DrScholl]

I'm still shocked that more people aren't picking up on Kansas' Trump protest vote? Trump only getting 75% there in a state (he won) that voted I think entirely after Haley dropped out seems pretty substantial??

Biden didn't exactly kill it in Kansas either and he was up against nothing. Haley ran a real campaign. What was Bernie pulling against Biden post-dropout? Not that she was ever as serious for Trump as he was for Biden but that might something interesting to compare it to.

Nobody was talking about Biden, they were talking about Trump's performance. He's supposed to be the most popular presidential candidate in the history of every single presidential election, yet he has dramatically under performed in all primaries in comparison to the most hated President in history (according to Atlas standards, not real life ones).

[White Cloud]

Nobody was talking about Biden, they were talking about Trump's performance. He's supposed to be the most popular presidential candidate in the history of every single presidential election, yet he has dramatically under performed in all primaries in comparison to the most hated President in history (according to Atlas standards, not real life ones).

You can't compare the results of a non-incumbent running in an open, competitive primary with the results of a sitting president running in a primary where he has no serious challenge to his party's nomination. It's not an apples-to-apples comparison. Obviously the leading non-incumbent will get a lower share of the vote in that scenario than the sitting president will. You can't say Trump dramatically underperformed relative to Biden when it's not an apples-to-apples comparison.

What you should be comparing Trump's performance to is previous Republican primaries where the Republicans were the non-incumbent party and it was an open, competitive primary. Compare what Trump did in 2024 with all previous primaries of that nature and see how he compares. He didn't dramatically underperform in that scenario. He crushed it. He skipped all the debates, let the other candidates debate among themselves, and still beat them all by double digits.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1770986399077998662
Did... Arizona actually get their act together with vote counting?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Nobody was talking about Biden, they were talking about Trump's performance. He's supposed to be the most popular presidential candidate in the history of every single presidential election, yet he has dramatically under performed in all primaries in comparison to the most hated President in history (according to Atlas standards, not real life ones).

You can't compare the results of a non-incumbent running in an open, competitive primary with the results of a sitting president running in a primary where he has no serious challenge to his party's nomination. It's not an apples-to-apples comparison. Obviously the leading non-incumbent will get a lower share of the vote in that scenario than the sitting president will. You can't say Trump dramatically underperformed relative to Biden when it's not an apples-to-apples comparison.

What you should be comparing Trump's performance to is previous Republican primaries where the Republicans were the non-incumbent party and it was an open, competitive primary. Compare what Trump did in 2024 with all previous primaries of that nature and see how he compares. He didn't dramatically underperform in that scenario. He crushed it. He skipped all the debates, let the other candidates debate among themselves, and still beat them all by double digits.

Trump is a former president who is running as a semi-incumbent.
To compare his performances with Romney in 2012 or McCain in 2008 is ridiculous.

[2016]

Former Congresswoman Stephanie Murphy absolutely unloaded on the Florida Democratic Party and their Chairwoman Nikki Fried

https://twitter.com/MurphyforFL/status/1771219424621605075

The KEY Point Murphy is making is No 4. Because the FL Dems cancelled their Primary FL Republicans have now a huge Advantage when it comes to VBM Ballot. Reason: Florida Election Law says that if you request a VBM Ballot for the Primary you don't have to request again for the GE. It will be automatically mailed to you. Meanwhile Dems who want to vote by Mail have to request that Ballot again.

[Tekken_Guy]

Former Congresswoman Stephanie Murphy absolutely unloaded on the Florida Democratic Party and their Chairwoman Nikki Fried

https://twitter.com/MurphyforFL/status/1771219424621605075

The KEY Point Murphy is making is No 4. Because the FL Dems cancelled their Primary FL Republicans have now a huge Advantage when it comes to VBM Ballot. Reason: Florida Election Law says that if you request a VBM Ballot for the Primary you don't have to request again for the GE. It will be automatically mailed to you. Meanwhile Dems who want to vote by Mail have to request that Ballot again.

Because Republicans vastly favor Election Day voting their VBM advantage isn’t as large as it looks. They also have the August primaries to make up that gap.