Kaufman County TX

[ProgressiveModerate]

Trump is obviously very likely if not certain to win this County, but curious about the margin both in terms of raw vote totals and %. In 2020, Trump won it by 34% (66.3-32.5) and by about 19k votes (37.6k - 18.4k).

The reason why this County is interesting is because based on ACS estimates, it's by far the County with the largest % population increase since 2020 growing by 28% and adding nearly 40k people. Most of that increase is likely due to the Dallas suburbs spilling over, but I don't have a tract breakdown to 100% confirm.

Another notable thing is this was the only County in the greater Dallas area to swing left from 2020-->2022 Pres, with O' Rourke winning outright more votes than Biden in a few precincts close to the Dallas County border likely because of growth.

Pretty sure the County swings left Presidentially in 2024, and I think it's one of the hardest left-swinging counties in the County, but more curious as to if Trump's net vote margin increases. My guess is it probably decreases to about 13k or so but he gets more raw votes than 2020.

I think what happens will be a good test as to the TX transplant theory - just how strongly do all these suburban TX transplants actually favor Ds?



These precincts are worth roughly half the counties population, and have had some pretty insane swings in recent cycles; Trump + 44 --> Cruz + 27 --> Trump + 20 --> Abbott + 15. Curious if Biden can win them in 2024. Also crazy how O'Rourke in 2022 got double the votes of Hillary Clinton despite much lower turnout statewide.