What does the PV margin have to be for Trump to win the Electoral College?

[Woody]

title

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Trump by 1+, safe Trump
Biden by 1 to Trump by 1, likely Trump
Biden by 1-3, lean Trump
Biden by 3-4, tossup
Biden by 4-5, lean Biden
Biden by 5-6, likely Biden
Biden by 6+, safe Biden

[Progressive Pessimist]

Anything less than Biden+3.

[dspNY]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Biden +2 is the cutoff, and anything better than that for Biden is a Trump loss. California and Florida are going to vote at least 5 points further right than they did in 2020 and the swing states won't move nearly as much. That could contribute to a point or two difference closer to parity in the popular vote

The GOP actually won the 2-party 2022 midterm vote by 2% but only narrowly won the House, and lost most of the big races in the swing states. To me that indicates the blue states could move a little right (and now red Florida) but the swing states don't move much

[Mr. Third-Wayist]

As a final result in the PV, not a polling margin.

Trump +3 or more Safe Trump (312 map or more)
Trump +1-3 Likely Trump (around 290-300 EV’s for Trump)
Trump +1-Tie Lean Trump (270-290 EV’s for Trump)
Tie-Biden +1 Tossup (could go either way)
Biden +1-2 Lean Biden (270-280 EV’s for Biden)
Biden +2-4 Likely Biden  (280-300 EV’s for Biden)
Biden +4 or more Safe Biden (303 map or more)

[The Mamdani Virus]

Anywhere from D+2 to D+5, I’ll guess D+3.5

[mjba257]

One possibility that is more plausible than some like to believe is Biden losing the popular vote but winning the electoral college. Remember, in 2022, the GOP won the popular vote by 2%, but only narrowly took the House. If I'm not mistaken, I believe the tipping point district was to the left of the NPV.

In 2024, the formula for such a scenario is such:
- Biden gets annihilated in the red states, with Trump winning several mid-sized states like AL, KY, IN, MO, LA, OK, TN by over 500,000 raw votes

- Trump wins both TX and FL by over a million votes in each. He also gets OH by over 500k and NC by over 300k.

- Biden wins CA by 20%, NY by 15%, IL & WA by 12%, NJ by 10%. MA and MD are around 25-27 point margins for Biden. States like VA, CO, MN, and OR also get closer by raw votes

- Biden pulls off narrow wins in PA, AZ, and MI.

All of that is very plausible

[Arizona Iced Tea]

One possibility that is more plausible than some like to believe is Biden losing the popular vote but winning the electoral college. Remember, in 2022, the GOP won the popular vote by 2%, but only narrowly took the House. If I'm not mistaken, I believe the tipping point district was to the left of the NPV.

In 2024, the formula for such a scenario is such:
- Biden gets annihilated in the red states, with Trump winning several mid-sized states like AL, KY, IN, MO, LA, OK, TN by over 500,000 raw votes

- Trump wins both TX and FL by over a million votes in each. He also gets OH by over 500k and NC by over 300k.

- Biden wins CA by 20%, NY by 15%, IL & WA by 12%, NJ by 10%. MA and MD are around 25-27 point margins for Biden. States like VA, CO, MN, and OR also get closer by raw votes

- Biden pulls off narrow wins in PA, AZ, and MI.

All of that is very plausible

The problem with this is that if Trump is doing that good in Texas, California, Illinois, NY, and Virginia it means he is improving significantly more in the suburbs. I just don't see how DFW, Houston, Austin, Chicago, LA, and NOVA, and NYC swing heavily R but somehow Biden improves in Phoenix, Atlanta, WOW, Philly, and Detroit. Likewise if Trump is improving in Massachusetts, why wouldn't that translate over to NH?

[Joe Biden 2028]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Biden +2 is the cutoff, and anything better than that for Biden is a Trump loss. California and Florida are going to vote at least 5 points further right than they did in 2020 and the swing states won't move nearly as much. That could contribute to a point or two difference closer to parity in the popular vote

The GOP actually won the 2-party 2022 midterm vote by 2% but only narrowly won the House, and lost most of the big races in the swing states. To me that indicates the blue states could move a little right (and now red Florida) but the swing states don't move much

I agree, thats my unorthodix opinion. I think Biden wins the electoral college by a similar margin to 2020, but the popular vote will be closer. 

[mjba257]

One possibility that is more plausible than some like to believe is Biden losing the popular vote but winning the electoral college. Remember, in 2022, the GOP won the popular vote by 2%, but only narrowly took the House. If I'm not mistaken, I believe the tipping point district was to the left of the NPV.

In 2024, the formula for such a scenario is such:
- Biden gets annihilated in the red states, with Trump winning several mid-sized states like AL, KY, IN, MO, LA, OK, TN by over 500,000 raw votes

- Trump wins both TX and FL by over a million votes in each. He also gets OH by over 500k and NC by over 300k.

- Biden wins CA by 20%, NY by 15%, IL & WA by 12%, NJ by 10%. MA and MD are around 25-27 point margins for Biden. States like VA, CO, MN, and OR also get closer by raw votes

- Biden pulls off narrow wins in PA, AZ, and MI.

All of that is very plausible

The problem with this is that if Trump is doing that good in Texas, California, Illinois, NY, and Virginia it means he is improving significantly more in the suburbs. I just don't see how DFW, Houston, Austin, Chicago, LA, and NOVA, and NYC swing heavily R but somehow Biden improves in Phoenix, Atlanta, WOW, Philly, and Detroit. Likewise if Trump is improving in Massachusetts, why wouldn't that translate over to NH?

My theory is the suburbs will stay stagnant from 2020, only shifting marginally to the right. Trump's biggest gains will come from urban cores. Phoenix doesn't really have a true urban core, it's mostly a suburban city, that's why I think AZ will be insanely close this time, perhaps Florida 2000 levels close. However, Georgia I think will flip back to the GOP column thanks to improvement in Atlanta, which has a large urban core. In Pennsylvania, I do predict Trump will improve in Philadelphia, but the suburbs will stagnate, causing another nail-bitter that could go  either way. As for NH, I think it will swing rightward because the state has usually does swing against incumbents. However, I doubt it'll get as close as it did in 2016. Perhaps around a 2-3 point win for Biden, which correlates to around a 25-27 point win in Mass.

[Joe Biden 2028]

One possibility that is more plausible than some like to believe is Biden losing the popular vote but winning the electoral college. Remember, in 2022, the GOP won the popular vote by 2%, but only narrowly took the House. If I'm not mistaken, I believe the tipping point district was to the left of the NPV.

In 2024, the formula for such a scenario is such:
- Biden gets annihilated in the red states, with Trump winning several mid-sized states like AL, KY, IN, MO, LA, OK, TN by over 500,000 raw votes

- Trump wins both TX and FL by over a million votes in each. He also gets OH by over 500k and NC by over 300k.

- Biden wins CA by 20%, NY by 15%, IL & WA by 12%, NJ by 10%. MA and MD are around 25-27 point margins for Biden. States like VA, CO, MN, and OR also get closer by raw votes

- Biden pulls off narrow wins in PA, AZ, and MI.

All of that is very plausible

The problem with this is that if Trump is doing that good in Texas, California, Illinois, NY, and Virginia it means he is improving significantly more in the suburbs. I just don't see how DFW, Houston, Austin, Chicago, LA, and NOVA, and NYC swing heavily R but somehow Biden improves in Phoenix, Atlanta, WOW, Philly, and Detroit. Likewise if Trump is improving in Massachusetts, why wouldn't that translate over to NH?

Didn't that exact scenario happen in 2022? Democrats did poorly in California and especially New York, but largely kept their suburban gains in swing areas.

Special elections in 2023 continue to show Democratic strength in the suburbs

[Arizona Iced Tea]

One possibility that is more plausible than some like to believe is Biden losing the popular vote but winning the electoral college. Remember, in 2022, the GOP won the popular vote by 2%, but only narrowly took the House. If I'm not mistaken, I believe the tipping point district was to the left of the NPV.

In 2024, the formula for such a scenario is such:
- Biden gets annihilated in the red states, with Trump winning several mid-sized states like AL, KY, IN, MO, LA, OK, TN by over 500,000 raw votes

- Trump wins both TX and FL by over a million votes in each. He also gets OH by over 500k and NC by over 300k.

- Biden wins CA by 20%, NY by 15%, IL & WA by 12%, NJ by 10%. MA and MD are around 25-27 point margins for Biden. States like VA, CO, MN, and OR also get closer by raw votes

- Biden pulls off narrow wins in PA, AZ, and MI.

All of that is very plausible

The problem with this is that if Trump is doing that good in Texas, California, Illinois, NY, and Virginia it means he is improving significantly more in the suburbs. I just don't see how DFW, Houston, Austin, Chicago, LA, and NOVA, and NYC swing heavily R but somehow Biden improves in Phoenix, Atlanta, WOW, Philly, and Detroit. Likewise if Trump is improving in Massachusetts, why wouldn't that translate over to NH?

Didn't that exact scenario happen in 2022? Democrats did poorly in California and especially New York, but largely kept their suburban gains in swing areas.

Special elections in 2023 continue to show Democratic strength in the suburbs

Because in 2022 Rs ran better candidates in those states. Compare Mastriano and Zeldin, if you switched the races Zeldin could probably even win PA and Mastriano would get destroyed in NY. 2022 was around 500 seperate races in 500 seperate states/congressional districts. Trump vs Biden is going to be the same consistent matchup in every county.

[Joe Biden 2028]

One possibility that is more plausible than some like to believe is Biden losing the popular vote but winning the electoral college. Remember, in 2022, the GOP won the popular vote by 2%, but only narrowly took the House. If I'm not mistaken, I believe the tipping point district was to the left of the NPV.

In 2024, the formula for such a scenario is such:
- Biden gets annihilated in the red states, with Trump winning several mid-sized states like AL, KY, IN, MO, LA, OK, TN by over 500,000 raw votes

- Trump wins both TX and FL by over a million votes in each. He also gets OH by over 500k and NC by over 300k.

- Biden wins CA by 20%, NY by 15%, IL & WA by 12%, NJ by 10%. MA and MD are around 25-27 point margins for Biden. States like VA, CO, MN, and OR also get closer by raw votes

- Biden pulls off narrow wins in PA, AZ, and MI.

All of that is very plausible

The problem with this is that if Trump is doing that good in Texas, California, Illinois, NY, and Virginia it means he is improving significantly more in the suburbs. I just don't see how DFW, Houston, Austin, Chicago, LA, and NOVA, and NYC swing heavily R but somehow Biden improves in Phoenix, Atlanta, WOW, Philly, and Detroit. Likewise if Trump is improving in Massachusetts, why wouldn't that translate over to NH?

Didn't that exact scenario happen in 2022? Democrats did poorly in California and especially New York, but largely kept their suburban gains in swing areas.

Special elections in 2023 continue to show Democratic strength in the suburbs

Because in 2022 Rs ran better candidates in those states. Compare Mastriano and Zeldin, if you switched the races Zeldin could probably even win PA and Mastriano would get destroyed in NY. 2022 was around 500 seperate races in 500 seperate states/congressional districts. Trump vs Biden is going to be the same consistent matchup in every county.

Your right, candidate quality still matters. Republicans lost a lot of races in AZ/WI/NV/GA they should have won.

[MillennialModerate]

Trump +2 or up • Titanium Trump
Trump +1 • Safe Trump
EVEN • Safe Trump • Where I see it will be
Biden +1 • Safe Trump
Biden +2 • Likely Trump
Biden +3 • Lean Trump
Biden +3.5 • Tossup
Biden +4 • Lean Biden
Biden +5 • Likely Biden
Biden +6 • Safe Biden
Biden +6.5 or up • Titanium Biden

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Biden +1.5 or so is the breakeven point.

[DK_Mo82]

It Depends a lot on what you believe swings will be in NY NJ CA and other safe blue states, if you think Lee Zeldin is repeatable then you can push it all the way to like Trump by 2 still loses electoral