538 launching GE polling averages iminently?
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  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: muon2, GeorgiaModerate, Spiral, 100% pro-life no matter what, Crumpets)
  538 launching GE polling averages iminently? 		« previous next »
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Author Topic: 538 launching GE polling averages iminently?  (Read 741 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: March 13, 2024, 09:50:59 AM »
Thank god, G Elliott is ready to save us from RCP
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The Economy is Getting Worse
riverwalk3
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« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2024, 05:21:34 PM »
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2024, 05:30:07 PM »
Don't believe these crap polls
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2024, 07:25:45 PM »
« Edited: March 13, 2024, 07:32:43 PM by AncestralDemocrat. »
Quote from: The Economy is Getting Worse on March 13, 2024, 05:21:34 PM

lmao, most of these averages are exactly the same as RCP or more slanted in favor of Trump.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2024, 07:27:34 PM »
I'm confused - his table says polling averages, but why do they all add up to 100? It looks more like projected vote share % than a polling average (obv since Trump is not over 50 in most of those states), and then the national one is way lower at 42.9-41.0??
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Cayahougac
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« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2024, 07:32:08 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on March 13, 2024, 07:27:34 PM
I'm confused - his table says polling averages, but why do they all add up to 100? It looks more like projected vote share % than a polling average (obv since Trump is not over 50 in most of those states), and then the national one is way lower at 42.9-41.0??
plus its not going to be a two way race, its hard to say but RCP is more accurate in polling aggregates now than 538 (I guess that's what happens when you fire the only reason the site existed)
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2024, 07:33:39 PM »
"Thank god, G Elliott is ready to save us from RCP.."

Automatically starts picking apart their methodology when it doesn't justify priors.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2024, 07:43:32 PM »
So, by this measure, it looks like the tipping point state is forecasted to be about two points to the right of the nation?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2024, 07:44:13 PM »
Quote from: AncestralDemocrat. on March 13, 2024, 07:33:39 PM
"Thank god, G Elliott is ready to save us from RCP.."

Automatically starts picking apart their methodology when it doesn't justify priors.

Are you dense? What he has there is not a polling average. Do you think the current polls add up to 100 in every single state right now? Like what even is this comment?
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #9 on: March 13, 2024, 07:47:37 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on March 13, 2024, 07:44:13 PM
Quote from: AncestralDemocrat. on March 13, 2024, 07:33:39 PM
"Thank god, G Elliott is ready to save us from RCP.."

Automatically starts picking apart their methodology when it doesn't justify priors.

Are you dense? What he has there is not a polling average. Do you think the current polls add up to 100 in every single state right now? Like what even is this comment?
lmao, I'm not dense enough to create a thread with thinly veiled derision towards RCP.. then immediately whine about what 538 release.  

Hack going to hack.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: March 13, 2024, 07:48:56 PM »
Quote from: AncestralDemocrat. on March 13, 2024, 07:47:37 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on March 13, 2024, 07:44:13 PM
Quote from: AncestralDemocrat. on March 13, 2024, 07:33:39 PM
"Thank god, G Elliott is ready to save us from RCP.."

Automatically starts picking apart their methodology when it doesn't justify priors.

Are you dense? What he has there is not a polling average. Do you think the current polls add up to 100 in every single state right now? Like what even is this comment?
lmao, I'm not dense enough to create a thread with thinly veiled derision towards RCP.. then immediately whine about what 538 release.  

Hack going to hack.

If you're actually going to defend RCP after their 2022 nonsense, then there is no reason for me to even continue this discussion. Always amazed at how many people on this forum refuse to act in normal good faith discussions
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2024, 07:50:41 PM »
« Edited: March 13, 2024, 07:57:14 PM by AncestralDemocrat. »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on March 13, 2024, 07:48:56 PM
Quote from: AncestralDemocrat. on March 13, 2024, 07:47:37 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on March 13, 2024, 07:44:13 PM
Quote from: AncestralDemocrat. on March 13, 2024, 07:33:39 PM
"Thank god, G Elliott is ready to save us from RCP.."

Automatically starts picking apart their methodology when it doesn't justify priors.

Are you dense? What he has there is not a polling average. Do you think the current polls add up to 100 in every single state right now? Like what even is this comment?
lmao, I'm not dense enough to create a thread with thinly veiled derision towards RCP.. then immediately whine about what 538 release.  

Hack going to hack.

If you're actually going to defend RCP after their 2022 nonsense, then there is no reason for me to even continue this discussion. Always amazed at how many people on this forum refuse to act in normal good faith discussions
Ah, because calling others dense is really a example of good faith discussions.

I'm not defending RCP in any substantiative way beyond highlighting they have similar numbers to 538.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #12 on: March 13, 2024, 07:52:27 PM »
Play nice, kids.
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TechbroMBA
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« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2024, 08:10:12 PM »
I dunno, a guy makes a thread and then begoofs himself within less than 24 hours. Seems pretty fair to call him a hack.
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Averroës
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« Reply #14 on: March 13, 2024, 08:19:50 PM »
Say what you want about RCP, but I can go to their website and get to a polling average within two or three clicks. It's always there, in the same place, and I don't need to wait until March of an election year to get a polling average for the general election.
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jfern
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« Reply #15 on: March 13, 2024, 09:17:26 PM »
Quote from: The Economy is Getting Worse on March 13, 2024, 05:21:34 PM


So Trump is up 1.9 nationwide and 3.9 in the tipping point state. That's an electoral college advantage of 2 points.
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