Who wins upstate NY?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Defined as everything not NYC proper, Nassau, or Suffolk counties.



2016 Pres: D + 2
2018 Gov: R + 2
2020 Pres: D + 7
2022 Sen: D + 2
2022 AG: R + 3
2022 Gov: R + 6

Biden got quite a favorable swing from 2016 Pres, but Hochul and other NY Dems really struggled here in 2022.

I personally think Biden carries it again by a similar margin to 2020, but we see further urban/rural polarization as well as educational polarization. I expect the Hudson Valley outside Rockland County to largely shift left thanks to transplants.

I think the biggest thing people get wrong about upstate NY is its largely rural farmland. Upstate NY has 4 major cities; Albany, Syracuse, Rochester, and Buffalo, as well as a scattering of smaller cities that help keep it a competative if not D-leaning region. And even for rural areas, a large share of rurals are more secular and liberal, perhaps with some transplants/tourists similar to much of rural New England.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Upstate NY is honestly a bigger issue for Rs than NYC.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Upstate NY is honestly a bigger issue for Rs than NYC.

It would be funny if in the long run Rs actually make the gains in Long Island and NYC to make NY competitive, but D gains in upstate save the state from going R. Honestly not as unlikely as it may sound - in 2022 for instance the rightwards swings in upstate tended to be far more muted than NY and Long Island.

[seskoog]

Biden by a similar margin to 2020

[CosmoKramer]

Upstate leans to the Democrats in pres years.

[Rhode Islander First, American Second]

Biden. If Hillary won it, it's not going to Trump.

[Sir Mohamed]

Biden +5