A comparison: Biden vs. Trump - primary results

[Woke Frenzy]

Now that the candidates of either party are basically unopposed it's interesting to gauge which candidate fares better in his respective primary.
Of course, Nikki Haley will keep on gathering protest votes.
On the other hand, Joe Biden's party arch-rivals, Mr. Palmer and Mr. Uncommitted, are not going to back down.

[Beet]

A better comparison might be who receives more raw votes per state.

[Woke Frenzy]

A better comparison might be who receives more raw votes per state.

I understand what you mean; but sometimes raw votes are hard to compare, for example if one party holds a caucus while the other one holds a primary in the very same state. Even more distorting: If a party only holds caucus without using a straw poll, or even merely a convention, just like in Florida, Missouri, or Delaware.
With that said, the purpose of this map is to show how popular the presumptive nominees are among their own electorates.

Speaking of which: Georgia, Washington, and Hawaii will turn red tonight, while Mississippi becomes blue.

[Woke Frenzy]

Biden:

Georgia
Mississippi
Washington


Trump:

Hawaii


I totally overestimated the uncommitted vote in Washington, while totally underestimating Haley's influence both in Georgia and in the closed (!) Washington primaries.

[Senator Incitatus]

Absolutely no way to spin the Georgia results as a positive for Biden. If he can’t turnout primary voters to even remotely keep pace with Trump, what hope does he have with lower-propensity general election voters, who we know favor Trump by greater margins?

[Sir Mohamed]

A better comparison might be who receives more raw votes per state.

Not really, since incumbents usually just win few raw votes due to lack of contest.

[DrScholl]

Absolutely no way to spin the Georgia results as a positive for Biden. If he can’t turnout primary voters to even remotely keep pace with Trump, what hope does he have with lower-propensity general election voters, who we know favor Trump by greater margins?

The gap is about 300k for what was essentially an uncontested primary for Biden vs. a fairly contested one for Trump where there were votes already locked in before Haley dropped out. Obama had a deficit of over 762k in the 2012 uncontested primary. Going further back Democrats dramatically outpaced George W. Bush in 2024 during a contested primary vs. an uncontested primary where Bush got 161k votes vs. getting over 550k. In short it's not wise to extrapolate based on uncontested races.

Now what it is wise to extrapolate about is Trump's weak performance in some of the most populated counties in the state. That's a huge red flag.

[Woke Frenzy]

Does anybody know when the results of the NMIRP caucuses are coming in?

[Woke Frenzy]

Ha! 😆 Even on the Marianas, Biden is outperforming Trump.
For those tiny caucuses, the following phrases definitely hold true:
Every vote counts; plus, the smallest variance in Pacific elections can set off a tornado in the District of Columbia.

Biden: 93.9%
Trump: 90.1%