Georgia is likely within 5 points right now

[TechbroMBA]

We just making up sh**t now?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yes.
It will be close.
It's a swing state.

I agree but the polling would tell you it's virtually off the table. I'll go through the list of polls since the start of 2024

Morning Consult: Trump +6 (49-43)
Emerson: Trump +6 (48-42)
Fox News: Trump +8 (51-43)

I’m just not sure what a Trump + 8 victory would look like. Atlanta isn’t reverting back to 2016; if anything the metro is likely to shift further left from 2020. Trump could squeeze another 5 points out a rural whites but in many of those places the GOP is approaching a mathematical ceiling. And I don’t see black voters shifting 30 points right after decades of consistently giving Dems ~90% of the vote. We also to remember non-Atlanta “rural” Georgia has a good number of smaller cities like Columbus, Augusta, and Savannah where the trajectory generally hasn’t been so good for the GOP.

Really the only thing I can think of is low black turnout, but it’d take a hugely disproportionate black-white turnout dynamic which I think is unlikely to get Trump + 8.

Low black turnout and minorities shifting right would shift it right. Atlanta actually shifts right due to lower black turnout, though it does not revert to 2016. Trump probably gets Burt Jones or so margins in the suburbs while doing better in the black belt.

Yeah I buy some of these things happening - it's just them happening at the scale required to shift GA 8 points right which I don't see, especially once you factor in Atlanta growth alone probably gives Biden another point or two of buffer all else being equal.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Yes.
It will be close.
It's a swing state.

I agree but the polling would tell you it's virtually off the table. I'll go through the list of polls since the start of 2024

Morning Consult: Trump +6 (49-43)
Emerson: Trump +6 (48-42)
Fox News: Trump +8 (51-43)

I’m just not sure what a Trump + 8 victory would look like. Atlanta isn’t reverting back to 2016; if anything the metro is likely to shift further left from 2020. Trump could squeeze another 5 points out a rural whites but in many of those places the GOP is approaching a mathematical ceiling. And I don’t see black voters shifting 30 points right after decades of consistently giving Dems ~90% of the vote. We also to remember non-Atlanta “rural” Georgia has a good number of smaller cities like Columbus, Augusta, and Savannah where the trajectory generally hasn’t been so good for the GOP.

Really the only thing I can think of is low black turnout, but it’d take a hugely disproportionate black-white turnout dynamic which I think is unlikely to get Trump + 8.

Low black turnout and minorities shifting right would shift it right. Atlanta actually shifts right due to lower black turnout, though it does not revert to 2016. Trump probably gets Burt Jones or so margins in the suburbs while doing better in the black belt.

Yeah I buy some of these things happening - it's just them happening at the scale required to shift GA 8 points right which I don't see, especially once you factor in Atlanta growth alone probably gives Biden another point or two of buffer all else being equal.

The way I see it, even on a bad night I don't see Biden losing Georgia by more than 3 points or so.

[MarkD]

Why "right now"? Wouldn't it be that close for a number of years?

[DS0816]

Both candidates were there today, and usually that means the race is close. I think Trump leads there but I don't think he leads by upper single digits or double digits. Trump certainly wouldn't be wasting time there if he were up as much as the polls are saying...

Given that Democratic incumbent Joe Biden is struggling for 40 percent in job approval … let us suppose Election 2024 ends up a Republican pickup, specifically for Donald Trump, for U.S. President.

Let us also suppose the six states—the “swing states”—consistently polling as Trump leads are won as 2024 Republican pickups. Those six states, according to populations rank, are: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

Let us also suppose, given Biden polls with dramatic underperformances with voting coalitions normally with the Democratic Party (such as the youngest voting-age group of 18–29), a likewise 2024 Republican pickup for U.S. Popular Vote.

If the outcome on the electoral map, for a winning Republican, would be 31 carried states … I would estimate a U.S. Popular Vote with a percentage-points margin of R+3.

Since the 1990s, for winning Democrats and winning Republicans, the former tends to carry +21 or +22 states in excess of each percentage point won in the U.S. Popular Vote. On the Republican side, figure +28 or +29. (Exception: 1992 Bill Clinton won the U.S. Popular Vote by +5.56 and carried 32 states. But this has been the pattern for winning Democrats since 1960 John Kennedy.)

If you look at party-pickup-winning presidents since, say, 2008 Barack Obama … some of what they flipped delivered percentage-points margins above and some below their U.S. Popular Vote; and some were just about right on the number.

In 2008, what Democratic pickup winner Obama—who flipped +9 states—won over with margins above his national result were: New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa, and Colorado.

In 2016, had Republican pickup winner Trump carried the U.S. Popular Vote, I estimate his U.S. Popular Vote margin would have been (whole-number estimate) +2. He carried 30 states. He flipped +6 states, as well as Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, after 2012 Mitt Romney lost the U.S. Popular Vote by –3.86 percentage points. (Figure a net gain of +1 state with each percentage point nationally shifted in Republican and Democratic pickup years.) 2016 pickups for Trump which were over +2.00 were: Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, Iowa, and Ohio.

In 2020, when Biden won a Democratic pickup of the presidency, his U.S. Popular Vote percentage-points margin was +4.45. Biden flipped +5 states from 2016 Republican to 2020 Democratic. Only one of his pickups delivered a higher margin vs. national outcome: Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.

The 2020 outcomes for the Democrats are to an advantage for the 2024 Republicans. The swing states are more easily flippable. And most of them would deliver margins above the national result.

I suspect the following:

2024 REPUBLICAN PICKUPS
• Georgia +8
• Arizona +7
• Wisconsin +6
• Pennsylvania +5
• Michigan +4
— U.S. Popular Vote +3 —
• Nevada +2

Given this topic is about sensing Georgia as within +5 …I can agree that it is within +5 above the national margin for Election 2024.

[Mr. Third-Wayist]

Both candidates were there today, and usually that means the race is close. I think Trump leads there but I don't think he leads by upper single digits or double digits. Trump certainly wouldn't be wasting time there if he were up as much as the polls are saying...

Given that Democratic incumbent Joe Biden is struggling for 40 percent in job approval … let us suppose Election 2024 ends up a Republican pickup, specifically for Donald Trump, for U.S. President.

Let us also suppose the six states—the “swing states”—consistently polling as Trump leads are won as 2024 Republican pickups. Those six states, according to populations rank, are: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

Let us also suppose, given Biden polls with dramatic underperformances with voting coalitions normally with the Democratic Party (such as the youngest voting-age group of 18–29), a likewise 2024 Republican pickup for U.S. Popular Vote.

If the outcome on the electoral map, for a winning Republican, would be 31 carried states … I would estimate a U.S. Popular Vote with a percentage-points margin of R+3.

Since the 1990s, for winning Democrats and winning Republicans, the former tends to carry +21 or +22 states in excess of each percentage point won in the U.S. Popular Vote. On the Republican side, figure +28 or +29. (Exception: 1992 Bill Clinton won the U.S. Popular Vote by +5.56 and carried 32 states. But this has been the pattern for winning Democrats since 1960 John Kennedy.)

If you look at party-pickup-winning presidents since, say, 2008 Barack Obama … some of what they flipped delivered percentage-points margins above and some below their U.S. Popular Vote; and some were just about right on the number.

In 2008, what Democratic pickup winner Obama—who flipped +9 states—won over with margins above his national result were: New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa, and Colorado.

In 2016, had Republican pickup winner Trump carried the U.S. Popular Vote, I estimate his U.S. Popular Vote margin would have been (whole-number estimate) +2. He carried 30 states. He flipped +6 states, as well as Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, after 2012 Mitt Romney lost the U.S. Popular Vote by –3.86 percentage points. (Figure a net gain of +1 state with each percentage point nationally shifted in Republican and Democratic pickup years.) 2016 pickups for Trump which were over +2.00 were: Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, Iowa, and Ohio.

In 2020, when Biden won a Democratic pickup of the presidency, his U.S. Popular Vote percentage-points margin was +4.45. Biden flipped +5 states from 2016 Republican to 2020 Democratic. Only one of his pickups delivered a higher margin vs. national outcome: Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.

The 2020 outcomes for the Democrats are to an advantage for the 2024 Republicans. The swing states are more easily flippable. And most of them would deliver margins above the national result.

I suspect the following:

2024 REPUBLICAN PICKUPS
• Georgia +8
• Arizona +7
• Wisconsin +6
• Pennsylvania +5
• Michigan +4
— U.S. Popular Vote +3 —
• Nevada +2

Given this topic is about sensing Georgia as within +5 …I can agree that it is within +5 above the national margin for Election 2024.

Is it impossible for Biden to win in your mind?

[DS0816]

…

Given that Democratic incumbent Joe Biden is struggling for 40 percent in job approval … let us suppose Election 2024 ends up a Republican pickup, specifically for Donald Trump, for U.S. President.

…

Is it impossible for Biden to win in your mind?

A reminder (and notice its third post):

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=583614.msg9399289#msg9399289

[cg41386]

And a reminder that it's March, not September or October.

[GeorgiaModerate]

We just making up sh**t now?

Emerson has Trump+4 in Georgia in their newest poll.  Are they making it up?

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Trump was never 8 pts ahead in GA, Trump polls will continue to go down until we actually vote

That's why Riverwalk whom is a poll of SL is wrong because eDays are futuristic not now, the user DS has an R nut map, but what if Biden wins

[GeorgiaModerate]

We just making up sh**t now?

Emerson has Trump+4 in Georgia in their newest poll.  Are they making it up?

And:

https://twitter.com/olivialarinaldi/status/1767657389287723354

[ajc0918]

Trump+3 in GA likely means Biden is leading nationwide. Unless Georgia is suddenly several points to the left of the nation, which is plausible.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump+3 in GA likely means Biden is leading nationwide. Unless Georgia is suddenly several points to the left of the nation, which is plausible.

I wouldn't go that far, but it suggests a very close race.

[GAinDC]

Trump+3 in GA likely means Biden is leading nationwide. Unless Georgia is suddenly several points to the left of the nation, which is plausible.

Or Georgia continues to trend left

[President Johnson]

Always has been.

[dspNY]

Trump+3 in GA likely means Biden is leading nationwide. Unless Georgia is suddenly several points to the left of the nation, which is plausible.

Trump +3 or +4 in GA means a tie or +1 either way in the national vote. Georgia isn't several points to the left of the nation, otherwise they would have a Governor Abrams right now