Georgia is likely within 5 points right now

[dspNY]

Both candidates were there today, and usually that means the race is close. I think Trump leads there but I don't think he leads by upper single digits or double digits. Trump certainly wouldn't be wasting time there if he were up as much as the polls are saying...

[Mr. Third-Wayist]

[CheapDollarEra?]

Yes.
It will be close.
It's a swing state.

[dspNY]

Yes.
It will be close.
It's a swing state.

I agree but the polling would tell you it's virtually off the table. I'll go through the list of polls since the start of 2024

Morning Consult: Trump +6 (49-43)
Emerson: Trump +6 (48-42)
Fox News: Trump +8 (51-43)

[2016]

Both candidates were there today, and usually that means the race is close. I think Trump leads there but I don't think he leads by upper single digits or double digits. Trump certainly wouldn't be wasting time there if he were up as much as the polls are saying...

Trump is there because there is a Primary on Tuesday.

Georgia won't be close unless Biden gets close to a 50 % Job Approval.

I don't get that so many people here on Talk Elections flat out ignoring Biden JA especially in those Sunbelt States like GA, NC, AZ.

The Biden Campaign Strategy is completely wrong. They are overextending themselves instead of focusing squarely on MN, WI, MI and PA.

[Anti-Penguin Tariff Voter]

I would be astonished if it weren’t. It’s a southern swing state. These places are inelastic as hell.

[dspNY]

Both candidates were there today, and usually that means the race is close. I think Trump leads there but I don't think he leads by upper single digits or double digits. Trump certainly wouldn't be wasting time there if he were up as much as the polls are saying...

Trump is there because there is a Primary on Tuesday.

Georgia won't be close unless Biden gets close to a 50 % Job Approval.

I don't get that so many people here on Talk Elections flat out ignoring Biden JA especially in those Sunbelt States like GA, NC, AZ.

The Biden Campaign Strategy is completely wrong. They are overextending themselves instead of focusing squarely on MN, WI, MI and PA.

You're joking, right? Both primaries are effectively over

If I had to guess Trump is up by 3-4 in GA

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

TX, NC, GA and AZ it's coming down to and Trump needs all 4 to win if he loses 1 he is out

[2016]

Both candidates were there today, and usually that means the race is close. I think Trump leads there but I don't think he leads by upper single digits or double digits. Trump certainly wouldn't be wasting time there if he were up as much as the polls are saying...

Trump is there because there is a Primary on Tuesday.

Georgia won't be close unless Biden gets close to a 50 % Job Approval.

I don't get that so many people here on Talk Elections flat out ignoring Biden JA especially in those Sunbelt States like GA, NC, AZ.

The Biden Campaign Strategy is completely wrong. They are overextending themselves instead of focusing squarely on MN, WI, MI and PA.

You're joking, right? Both primaries are effectively over

If I had to guess Trump is up by 3-4 in GA

How can Trump be only be up 3-4 when Biden only has 42 % JA in GA.

The best indicator how an Incumbent President running for Re-Election will do is his JA nationwide and in the Swing States.

Also Trump is in GA to blunt Bidens Momentum from the SOTU. Makes sense to me!

I stand by my Prediction I gave at the beginning of the year that of all the Sunbelt States North Carolina is the most likely to flip not Georgia. And that's because of the insane bad Governor Candidate Republicans have nominated there. Combine Trump & Robinson and you have a perfect wave how D's can win the State.

[Spectator]

Both candidates were there today, and usually that means the race is close. I think Trump leads there but I don't think he leads by upper single digits or double digits. Trump certainly wouldn't be wasting time there if he were up as much as the polls are saying...

Trump is there because there is a Primary on Tuesday.

Georgia won't be close unless Biden gets close to a 50 % Job Approval.

I don't get that so many people here on Talk Elections flat out ignoring Biden JA especially in those Sunbelt States like GA, NC, AZ.

The Biden Campaign Strategy is completely wrong. They are overextending themselves instead of focusing squarely on MN, WI, MI and PA.

You're joking, right? Both primaries are effectively over

If I had to guess Trump is up by 3-4 in GA

How can Trump be only be up 3-4 when Biden only has 42 % JA in GA.

The best indicator how an Incumbent President running for Re-Election will do is his JA nationwide and in the Swing States.

Also Trump is in GA to blunt Bidens Momentum from the SOTU. Makes sense to me!

I stand by my Prediction I gave at the beginning of the year that of all the Sunbelt States North Carolina is the most likely to flip not Georgia. And that's because of the insane bad Governor Candidate Republicans have nominated there. Combine Trump & Robinson and you have a perfect wave how D's can win the State.

Biden had a 40-43% approval rating in the exit polls in all the swing states in 2022 and we all know how that story ended.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Both candidates were there today, and usually that means the race is close. I think Trump leads there but I don't think he leads by upper single digits or double digits. Trump certainly wouldn't be wasting time there if he were up as much as the polls are saying...

Trump is there because there is a Primary on Tuesday.

Georgia won't be close unless Biden gets close to a 50 % Job Approval.

I don't get that so many people here on Talk Elections flat out ignoring Biden JA especially in those Sunbelt States like GA, NC, AZ.

The Biden Campaign Strategy is completely wrong. They are overextending themselves instead of focusing squarely on MN, WI, MI and PA.

You're joking, right? Both primaries are effectively over

If I had to guess Trump is up by 3-4 in GA

How can Trump be only be up 3-4 when Biden only has 42 % JA in GA.

The best indicator how an Incumbent President running for Re-Election will do is his JA nationwide and in the Swing States.

Also Trump is in GA to blunt Bidens Momentum from the SOTU. Makes sense to me!

I stand by my Prediction I gave at the beginning of the year that of all the Sunbelt States North Carolina is the most likely to flip not Georgia. And that's because of the insane bad Governor Candidate Republicans have nominated there. Combine Trump & Robinson and you have a perfect wave how D's can win the State.

Biden had a 40-43% approval rating in the exit polls in all the swing states in 2022 and we all know how that story ended.

Biden is likely at 37 in the swing states now.

[2016]

Both candidates were there today, and usually that means the race is close. I think Trump leads there but I don't think he leads by upper single digits or double digits. Trump certainly wouldn't be wasting time there if he were up as much as the polls are saying...

Trump is there because there is a Primary on Tuesday.

Georgia won't be close unless Biden gets close to a 50 % Job Approval.

I don't get that so many people here on Talk Elections flat out ignoring Biden JA especially in those Sunbelt States like GA, NC, AZ.

The Biden Campaign Strategy is completely wrong. They are overextending themselves instead of focusing squarely on MN, WI, MI and PA.

You're joking, right? Both primaries are effectively over

If I had to guess Trump is up by 3-4 in GA

How can Trump be only be up 3-4 when Biden only has 42 % JA in GA.

The best indicator how an Incumbent President running for Re-Election will do is his JA nationwide and in the Swing States.

Also Trump is in GA to blunt Bidens Momentum from the SOTU. Makes sense to me!

I stand by my Prediction I gave at the beginning of the year that of all the Sunbelt States North Carolina is the most likely to flip not Georgia. And that's because of the insane bad Governor Candidate Republicans have nominated there. Combine Trump & Robinson and you have a perfect wave how D's can win the State.

Biden had a 40-43% approval rating in the exit polls in all the swing states in 2022 and we all know how that story ended.

Biden wasn't on the Ballot in 2022, now he is!

[dspNY]

Both candidates were there today, and usually that means the race is close. I think Trump leads there but I don't think he leads by upper single digits or double digits. Trump certainly wouldn't be wasting time there if he were up as much as the polls are saying...

Trump is there because there is a Primary on Tuesday.

Georgia won't be close unless Biden gets close to a 50 % Job Approval.

I don't get that so many people here on Talk Elections flat out ignoring Biden JA especially in those Sunbelt States like GA, NC, AZ.

The Biden Campaign Strategy is completely wrong. They are overextending themselves instead of focusing squarely on MN, WI, MI and PA.

You're joking, right? Both primaries are effectively over

If I had to guess Trump is up by 3-4 in GA

How can Trump be only be up 3-4 when Biden only has 42 % JA in GA.

The best indicator how an Incumbent President running for Re-Election will do is his JA nationwide and in the Swing States.

Also Trump is in GA to blunt Bidens Momentum from the SOTU. Makes sense to me!

I stand by my Prediction I gave at the beginning of the year that of all the Sunbelt States North Carolina is the most likely to flip not Georgia. And that's because of the insane bad Governor Candidate Republicans have nominated there. Combine Trump & Robinson and you have a perfect wave how D's can win the State.

Biden had a 40-43% approval rating in the exit polls in all the swing states in 2022 and we all know how that story ended.

Biden is likely at 37 in the swing states now.

Biden was at 41% in Ohio according to the exit polls when the abortion referendum was held. Ohio is not really a swing state this time around

[Progressive Pessimist]

Georgia may very well be the closest state in the nation again, unsurprisingly.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I would be astonished if it weren’t. It’s a southern swing state. These places are inelastic as hell.

Funny enough it went from Nixon+50 to Carter+34 in just 4 years.

[CheapDollarEra?]

I would be astonished if it weren’t. It’s a southern swing state. These places are inelastic as hell.

He's maybe thinking about North Carolina and pre 2022 Florida.

Funny enough it went from Nixon+50 to Carter+34 in just 4 years.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Both candidates were there today, and usually that means the race is close. I think Trump leads there but I don't think he leads by upper single digits or double digits. Trump certainly wouldn't be wasting time there if he were up as much as the polls are saying...

Trump is there because there is a Primary on Tuesday.

Georgia won't be close unless Biden gets close to a 50 % Job Approval.

I don't get that so many people here on Talk Elections flat out ignoring Biden JA especially in those Sunbelt States like GA, NC, AZ.

The Biden Campaign Strategy is completely wrong. They are overextending themselves instead of focusing squarely on MN, WI, MI and PA.

You're joking, right? Both primaries are effectively over

If I had to guess Trump is up by 3-4 in GA

How can Trump be only be up 3-4 when Biden only has 42 % JA in GA.

The best indicator how an Incumbent President running for Re-Election will do is his JA nationwide and in the Swing States.

Also Trump is in GA to blunt Bidens Momentum from the SOTU. Makes sense to me!

I stand by my Prediction I gave at the beginning of the year that of all the Sunbelt States North Carolina is the most likely to flip not Georgia. And that's because of the insane bad Governor Candidate Republicans have nominated there. Combine Trump & Robinson and you have a perfect wave how D's can win the State.

Biden had a 40-43% approval rating in the exit polls in all the swing states in 2022 and we all know how that story ended.

Biden is likely at 37 in the swing states now.

Biden was at 41% in Ohio according to the exit polls when the abortion referendum was held. Ohio is not really a swing state this time around

The Ohio abortion referendum electorate was Biden +2 in recalled vote.

[Iowa+3]

Both candidates were there today, and usually that means the race is close. I think Trump leads there but I don't think he leads by upper single digits or double digits. Trump certainly wouldn't be wasting time there if he were up as much as the polls are saying...

Trump is there because there is a Primary on Tuesday.

Georgia won't be close unless Biden gets close to a 50 % Job Approval.

I don't get that so many people here on Talk Elections flat out ignoring Biden JA especially in those Sunbelt States like GA, NC, AZ.

The Biden Campaign Strategy is completely wrong. They are overextending themselves instead of focusing squarely on MN, WI, MI and PA.

Captain obvious strikes again.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yes.
It will be close.
It's a swing state.

I agree but the polling would tell you it's virtually off the table. I'll go through the list of polls since the start of 2024

Morning Consult: Trump +6 (49-43)
Emerson: Trump +6 (48-42)
Fox News: Trump +8 (51-43)

I’m just not sure what a Trump + 8 victory would look like. Atlanta isn’t reverting back to 2016; if anything the metro is likely to shift further left from 2020. Trump could squeeze another 5 points out a rural whites but in many of those places the GOP is approaching a mathematical ceiling. And I don’t see black voters shifting 30 points right after decades of consistently giving Dems ~90% of the vote. We also to remember non-Atlanta “rural” Georgia has a good number of smaller cities like Columbus, Augusta, and Savannah where the trajectory generally hasn’t been so good for the GOP.

Really the only thing I can think of is low black turnout, but it’d take a hugely disproportionate black-white turnout dynamic which I think is unlikely to get Trump + 8.

[DaleCooper]

Both candidates were there today, and usually that means the race is close. I think Trump leads there but I don't think he leads by upper single digits or double digits. Trump certainly wouldn't be wasting time there if he were up as much as the polls are saying...

Trump is there because there is a Primary on Tuesday.

Georgia won't be close unless Biden gets close to a 50 % Job Approval.

I don't get that so many people here on Talk Elections flat out ignoring Biden JA especially in those Sunbelt States like GA, NC, AZ.

The Biden Campaign Strategy is completely wrong. They are overextending themselves instead of focusing squarely on MN, WI, MI and PA.

You're joking, right? Both primaries are effectively over

If I had to guess Trump is up by 3-4 in GA

How can Trump be only be up 3-4 when Biden only has 42 % JA in GA.

The best indicator how an Incumbent President running for Re-Election will do is his JA nationwide and in the Swing States.

Also Trump is in GA to blunt Bidens Momentum from the SOTU. Makes sense to me!

I stand by my Prediction I gave at the beginning of the year that of all the Sunbelt States North Carolina is the most likely to flip not Georgia. And that's because of the insane bad Governor Candidate Republicans have nominated there. Combine Trump & Robinson and you have a perfect wave how D's can win the State.

Biden had a 40-43% approval rating in the exit polls in all the swing states in 2022 and we all know how that story ended.

Didn't both candidates in 2016 have approval ratings in the 30s? People vote for candidates they don't like all the time. Most people are voting for ideologies and platforms right now, not candidates.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Yes.
It will be close.
It's a swing state.

I agree but the polling would tell you it's virtually off the table. I'll go through the list of polls since the start of 2024

Morning Consult: Trump +6 (49-43)
Emerson: Trump +6 (48-42)
Fox News: Trump +8 (51-43)

I’m just not sure what a Trump + 8 victory would look like. Atlanta isn’t reverting back to 2016; if anything the metro is likely to shift further left from 2020. Trump could squeeze another 5 points out a rural whites but in many of those places the GOP is approaching a mathematical ceiling. And I don’t see black voters shifting 30 points right after decades of consistently giving Dems ~90% of the vote. We also to remember non-Atlanta “rural” Georgia has a good number of smaller cities like Columbus, Augusta, and Savannah where the trajectory generally hasn’t been so good for the GOP.

Really the only thing I can think of is low black turnout, but it’d take a hugely disproportionate black-white turnout dynamic which I think is unlikely to get Trump + 8.

Low black turnout and minorities shifting right would shift it right. Atlanta actually shifts right due to lower black turnout, though it does not revert to 2016. Trump probably gets Burt Jones or so margins in the suburbs while doing better in the black belt.

[GAinDC]

As someone stated earlier — the math just isn’t their for either candidate to win Georgia by more than 4 or 5 points.

Trump is very unlikely to improve in metro ATL and Biden is very unlikely to improve in the rural parts of the state.

It will come down to turnout.

[america is tariffied]

As someone stated earlier — the math just isn’t their for either candidate to win Georgia by more than 4 or 5 points.

Trump is very unlikely to improve in metro ATL and Biden is very unlikely to improve in the rural parts of the state.

It will come down to turnout.

Big wins in North Carolina are the same. Southern swing states are extremely inelastic. NC could potentially see more regional shifts than GA (rurals in NC are more Democratic than GA, and the suburbs in NC have a lot of room for growth for Democrats), but the story with those shifts has been one that consistently balances out to "around R+5."

[GeorgiaModerate]

Local article on the dueling Biden and Trump rallies in the state yesterday:

https://www.ajc.com/politics/biden-and-trump-kick-off-rematch-in-georgia-with-rival-rallies/GOLDRBOTMJBGFK2TSFS6I32DCE/

[South Dakota Democrat]

Not necessarily within 5.  Just close to the tipping point.  I.e. if they're behind by like 7-8 everywhere right now and behind by 9 in Georgia, they'd likely still contest Georgia.

I think they are probably down under 5 though, and it will almost certainly narrow more than that by election day.