British Local Elections, May 2024

[JimJamUK]

FWIW, Labour’s polling has not changed since May 2023. The change in Conservative polling has been entirely down to Reform. Given Reform are contesting only a small minority of seats (and it’s unlikely the full swing to them is even real), it’s not clear that the Conservatives will do much worse than last year. 

[Duke of York]

I understand why its being done but it seems many of the local by elections being held May 2nd are in councils where there isn't a regular election.

[CumbrianLefty]

Eh?

That is a completely normal thing every year.

[TheTide]

Presumably there will be the usual 'projected national vote share' by the likes of Curtice, Thrasher/Rallings etc, even though the narrative is almost always firmly set by the time they get around to that.

[Oryxslayer]

Southwest and Hampshire

All Up:

Bristol: 25 Green – 23 Lab – 14 Con – 5 LD – 3 Indies (last in 2021)

Cheltenham: 30 LD – 5 Con – 2 Green – 2 Others – 1 Indie (last in 2022)

Dorset: 43 Con – 27 LD – 5 Green – 2 Lab – 4 Others – 1 Indie (last in 2019)

Gloucester: 21 Con – 14 LD – 2 Lab – 2 Indies (last in 2021)

Stroud: 18 Con – 14 Green – 4 Lab – 3 LD – 12 Indies (last in 2021)

_______________________________________________________________

Fareham: 24 Con – 4 LD – 3 Indies (last in 2022)

Havant: 30 Con – 4 Lab – 2 LD – 1 Green – 1 Indie (5 Con – 2 Lab – 2 LD – 1 Green in 2023)

Partial:

Exeter: 8 Lab – 2 Con – 1 Green – 2 Indies [Council: 24 Lab – 6 Greens – 4 Con – 3 LD – 2 Indies] (7 Lab – 3 Greens – 2 LD – 1 Con in 2023)

Plymouth: 9 Con – 6 Lab – 1 Green – 3 Indies [Council: 33 Lab – 15 Con – 2 Green – 7 Indies] (15 Lab – 1 Con – 3 Indies in 2023)

Swindon: 14 Con – 5 Lab [Council: 32 Lab – 23 Con – 1 LD – 1 Indie] (16 Lab – 2 Con – 1 LD in 2023)

_______________________________________________________________

Basingstoke and Dean: 11 Con - 2 Lab – 2 LD – 2 Others – 1 Indie [Council: 23 Con – 10 Lab – 9 LD – 1 Green – 8 Others – 3 Indies] (6 Con – 5 Lab – 3 LD – 3 Others – 1 Indie in 2023)

Eastleigh: 11 LD – 1 Con – 1 Indie [Council: 35 LD – 1 Con – 3 Indies] (12 LD – 1 Indie in 2023)

Gosport: 9 LD - 4 Con – 1 Lab [Council: 16 LD – 10 Con – 2 Lab] (all up in 2022)

Hart: 6 Con – 3 LD – 2 Others [Council: 11 LD – 11 Con – 10 Others – 1 Indie] (4 LD – 4 Others – 2 Con – 1 Indie in 2023)

Portsmouth: 6 LD – 5 Con – 1 Lab – 2 Indies [Council: 18 LD – 8 Con – 8 Lab – 4 Others – 4 Indies] (7 LD – 2 Lab – 3 Others – 1 Con – 1 Indie in 2023)

Rushmoor: 11 Con – 2 Lab  [Council: 23 Con – 14 Lab – 2 LD] (8 Lab – 4 Con – 1 LD in 2023)

Southampton: 13 Lab – 2 Con – 1 LD – 1 Indie [Council: 37 Lab – 9 Con – 3 LD – 1 Green – 1 Indie] (all up in 2023)

Winchester: 8 LD – 6 Con [Council: 30 LD – 12 Con – 2 Greens – 1 Indie] (13 LD – 2 Con – 1 Green in 2023)

There really isn’t that much up this round in the Southwest, so Hampshire is also getting thrown in to break up the size of the Southeast.





Current councilors Up. When boundary changes force everyone up, the oldest elected councilor is given priority in a ward.



2023 Results in these wards. When all councilors were up, the best performing councilor is given priority in a ward. Additionally, the map looks different cause many of these councils were not up in 2023.

The Biggest prize in the region, perhaps one of the largest in the country this year, is Bristol. But this means more than enough has already been said about the contest, so this will be short. It’s mainly a fight between the Greens and the Labour incumbents. The Greens launched their national campaign here but doing so focused more on housing than the environment. Labour are tarnished by the outgoing (and final) city mayor. On paper though Labour have more upside, with the Greens historically confined to the city centre where they hold most but not all wards. Whereas Labour could maintain power through taking voters and seats from the other groups on the council, like in Brighton last year, while also benefiting from a favorable national environment.

Outside of Bristol, Labour’s three other councils should be safe. Nominally if they lose every councilor than all three councils can fall, but realistically that will not happen. A majority of the Tory councilors are up in all three, previously brought in by the 2021 wave, a wave felt noticeably more in Swindon and Plymouth than Exeter. Labour got their own 2023 wave in Plymouth and Swindon, taking almost every ward and flipping both councils. The former was thanks to poor Conservative greenspace policies wreaking destruction on their caucus and prompting a local backlash, whereas the latter benefited from extreme Labour campaign resource allocation. So, while a repetition of the overwhelming 2023 Labour wave here may be difficult, numerous gains off the overexposed Conservatives are still likely. In Exeter the Greens could make gains of Labour like in 2023, even as Labour makes gains of the Tories and the formerly Labour independents.

Similarly, Cheltenham should be safe for the Liberal Democrats, even though every seat is up cause of minimal boundary changes. One must look back almost two decades to find a time when the Tories had control, 2.5 for a Blue majority. The Lib-Dems won 18 of 21 wards in 2022 when the council last had election, and that was before the total Tory collapse.

Dorset is another (close to) straight fight between the Tories and the Lib-Dems, only this time the Tories are starting with a weak majority of 4 over the combined opposition. The council was last up in 2019, when the region amalgamated from several smaller predecessors. Those predecessors were not the best territory for the Lib-Dems, with the 90s being the last time they held power in most of them. The fragile state of the Conservatives other parts of the southwest, including the more urban but adjacent Bournemouth though suggests this should be an easy Lib-Dem flip.

Gloucester was one of the first stops for Sunak on the local and shadow-GE campaign, even as local Tories fear a wipeout-level disaster. All Councilors were last up in 2021 when the Tories won a wave-boosted majority and reduced Labour to 3 seats. This, complimented by a subsequent defection, made the Lib-Dems the largest opposition. Looking back though the Lib-Dems have traditionally been confined to the wards in their side of the city, with Labour targeting the rest and forming the most recent non-Tory majority 25 years ago. With the current environment being more anti-Tory than pro-Labour how the seats fall remains uncertain. Labour could rebound, the Lib-Dems could advance from their strong initial position, or things could fragment in all directions.

Then there is Stroud. The Tories won a plurality here in 2021, but Labour were able to reforge the coalition with the growing Green group that had been working since 2012. Then almost all their councilors defected: 10 in reaction to a poor choice of GE candidates (imposed?) by the national party here, 1 in further response to Gaza. The new administration would be led by the Greens, with some of the ex-Labourites and Lib-Dems. With the Tory brand in disarray nationally, and Labour brand potentially in chaos locally, this could be an opportunity for big Green gains, as recognized by their statements during the Bristol launch party. A potentially resurgent Labour coming back to their previously held (and additional Tory) wards through the favorable national environment, is the main threat - potentially boosted by local issues surrounding the council’s Local Plan for development.



Now to Hampshire, Labour has only two straight-fight councils here, and they already hold one. Southampton Labour’s position is so dominant, after last year’s all-up boundary change election, that as long as they hold 1 seat up this year they maintain control. One might even say they are very slightly overexposed in this class: these are the third-place finishers from 2023 and therefore the spot most likely to be held by a beneficiary of ticket-splitting.

Rushmoor Labour meanwhile are going offensive for potential control, and maybe even the majority - something they have never won before. After Labour nearly swept the council in 2023 they now hold the most seats the party has had since before Blair. Opposing them this time is the overexposed 2021 Tory wave class, which is why such a flip is possible. If 2023 is repeated Labour make 6 gains for a majority of 1. Labour additionally failed to take St John's and West Heath Wards by 14 and 27 votes respectively, so their target list is theoretically even larger.  But even if they miss this mark the two and potentially a new third Lib-Dem councilor gives them more than enough leeway for minority control. With its early deceleration time during the midnight count, Rushmore may be the council that sets the theme for election results commentary.

The Lib-Dems similarly already hold all the Hampshire straight fight councils between them and the Conservatives. The Lib-Dems have enough councilors to maintain control in both Eastleigh and Winchester before any results are declared. This fact is potentially important in Eastleigh, where a large council debt became apparent this year, and there is the potential for a local backlash in contrast to the national environment. Lib-Dem gains through are still possible in Winchester.

Compared to the previous two, it wouldn’t take much for the Lib-Dem’s to lose control of Gosport. They won a majority by 1 seat when all councilors were up in 2022 under new lines. This majority was built off voters in two wards splitting their tickets and giving the Lib-Dems the second seat, even though the Tories won the first. So in theory control could fall from majority to minority. In practice, since there doesn't appear to be any local controversy, the Lib-Dems should maintain the majority and could make one or two gains through the anti-Tory national environment.  

Portsmouth deserves special mention because of the peculiar situation. There are enough seats up for the Lib-Dems to make their long-standing minority a majority, but that’s unlikely to happen. The Conservatives are still losing seats in droves: they only held 1 and 2 seats in their former northern stronghold during 2023 and 2022 respectively. These losses though are flowing to the localist Portsmouth Independent grouping, and Labour -  who are also making limited gains off the Lib-Dems. The 5 Tory seats up this year is over half their remaining delegation, so the potential losses will be significant. Especially given whose parliamentary seat they are in. But unless the Lib-Dems also lose a significant number of seats they will still lead the minority.

Two councils adjacent to Portsmouth are more friendly to the Tories, or as much as any normal Conservative area can be in this environment. Both Havant and Fareham councils are all up after boundary changes. Both have in recent years returned near-total Tory slates. However, Havant in 2023 offered a peculiar set of results. The lack of opposition meant Tory losses went in every direction, but they still held onto a band of seats in the west of the council. If repeated with every councilor up the Tories would end up with a large minority, but given their overall dominance here a small majority with large losses seems more likely. This is perhaps what could also happen in Fareham, though with a greater Lib-Dem presence. The last Fareham election was in 2022, when the Tories won landslides in both councils, so no direct precedent to look for. And again, the results could have national significance given who the MP for Fareham presently is...something that actually could end up potentially effecting voter behavior like in Stratford-on-Avon in 2023.

Independent groups play a key roll in Hart and Basingstoke councils. In Hart the Community Campaign Localist group is strong in the southeast around Fleet and Crookham, the Lib-Dems strong in the towns north of Farnborough, and the Tories still strong in western wards. This has been the situation since the localist group emerged in 2012, with change only previously happening when the localists switched partners. Despite this impasse, the Tories hold several seats won by the Lib-Dems or CC in 2023, so they could still fall back further. Basingstoke and Dean meanwhile is governed by a Frankenstein coalition of everyone against the Tories, which took over in 2023. The largest opposition group, the Labour contingent from mostly Basingstoke town, however are not formally part of the localist-led mess. This will likely change since it is Labour who have the potential for the most gains off the 2021 Troy wave councilors in said urban town wards, especially since they are looking to build campaign infrastructure here for the GE. A new administration will likely need to be formed, whether that be with a larger Labour and Lib-Dems or with the Independents turning to the Tories.

[icc]

I see no evidence that local Tories fear a wipeout in Gloucester. The local Labour Party is probably the most incompetent in the whole country (in a competitive area).

[Duke of York]

What are the chances the Greens get a majority in Bristol?

[Oryxslayer]

I see no evidence that local Tories fear a wipeout in Gloucester. The local Labour Party is probably the most incompetent in the whole country (in a competitive area).

Well see there's the type of thing that I can't tell from a bids eye view, so thank you. But I will note that the 'wipeout' thing is real: Here's the local source I found of the council fearing the environment will pull them under.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I see no evidence that local Tories fear a wipeout in Gloucester. The local Labour Party is probably the most incompetent in the whole country (in a competitive area).

This is Arfon CLP erasure.

[Coldstream]

What are the chances the Greens get a majority in Bristol?

Decent, certainly more likely than Labour. Will come down to a couple of wards like Ashley, Central, Lawrence Hill, Filwood and maybe Horfield. I’m assuming the Greens will take Eastville/Bedminster’s second seat.

[YL]

What are the chances the Greens get a majority in Bristol?

They currently have 25 seats (including the by-election gain in Hotwells & Harbourside) and need 36. There are five wards (Ashley, Bedminster, Central, Eastville, Lawrence Hill) where they have one or two councillors and Labour have one, so they could get to 30 by winning the remaining seats in these.

Beyond that it becomes a bit harder: the demographically most obvious targets have already been won, and they haven't come close yet in many other wards. They are certainly capable of breaking through in more wards, but they'd need to do so in at least three, so Filwood and Horfield wouldn't be enough.

[MaxQue]

What are the chances the Greens get a majority in Bristol?

They currently have 25 seats (including the by-election gain in Hotwells & Harbourside) and need 36. There are five wards (Ashley, Bedminster, Central, Eastville, Lawrence Hill) where they have one or two councillors and Labour have one, so they could get to 30 by winning the remaining seats in these.

Beyond that it becomes a bit harder: the demographically most obvious targets have already been won, and they haven't come close yet in many other wards. They are certainly capable of breaking through in more wards, but they'd need to do so in at least three, so Filwood and Horfield wouldn't be enough.

A majority probably involves coming in the middle in a three-way race in a place like Avonmouth or Westbury, looking at 2021 results.

[Blair]

I see no evidence that local Tories fear a wipeout in Gloucester. The local Labour Party is probably the most incompetent in the whole country (in a competitive area).

This is Arfon CLP erasure.

Ha pray tell!

[DL]

FWIW, Labour’s polling has not changed since May 2023. The change in Conservative polling has been entirely down to Reform. Given Reform are contesting only a small minority of seats (and it’s unlikely the full swing to them is even real), it’s not clear that the Conservatives will do much worse than last year. 

The seats that are voting this year were last up in 2021 when the Tories had a good year so they will lose a vast number of seats

[YL]

How is the weird east of England mayoral looking? The boundaries really confuse me

Well the boundaries are simple: all the contiguous East Midlands that was willing to join such a deal. Lincolnshire is setting up arrangements for their own combined mayor presently, so they are out. Leicestershire (and Rutland) wanted in, but Leicester city and especially local mayor Sir Peter Soulsby seemingly put his foot down firmly against the deal. Since both the city and the shire needed to join as a pair, they are out. And even if Northamptonshire wanted in they now would be disconnected.

In terms of results...should be strongly for Labour in this environment right? Though that's just a top-down perspective, maybe things are better for Bradley or worse for Ward locally, but nothing comes up under a brief news search.

Yes, it's just Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire (including the unitary cities) and really ought to be called that, not that it really makes much sense as a "metro".

Here's how the area voted last year:
https://twitter.com/Conrad_AML/status/1779614412061458624
(with obvious caveats in the follow up tweet)

[CumbrianLefty]

How is the weird east of England mayoral looking? The boundaries really confuse me

You did mean the "East Midlands" contest, right?

(there is a genuinely weird "Leader (ie NOT mayor) of Suffolk/Norfolk" thing proposed, but that has now been pushed back - likely to next year so as to coincide with the CC elections)

[Duke of York]

Is it possible BBC or Sky News will report results of local by elections in councils where there isn’t a scheduled election?

[YL]

(there is a genuinely weird "Leader (ie NOT mayor) of Suffolk/Norfolk" thing proposed, but that has now been pushed back - likely to next year so as to coincide with the CC elections)

As far as I can tell it's essentially the same idea as having a mayor of a council (as opposed to a combined authority) but for a county council, and for some reason the Government insisted on it as part of the devolution deals in Norfolk and Suffolk. I don't think either has actually been formally approved by the existing council yet.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

West Midlands poll from Redfield.

Richard Parker (Lab) 42%
Andy Street (Cons) 28%
Elaine Williams (Ref) 13%
Siobhan Harper-Nunes (Green) 7%
Sunny Virk (Lib Dem) 7%
Other 2%

Street's approval ratings show him equally positive with Labour and Tory voters, although not particularly well-known. Parker is 10 points behind Lab GE intentions.

[Torrain]

Not the worst set of numbers for Street. Equally positive with Tory/Lab voters is pretty solid, and in an FPTP election, I'm sure the Reform numbers will be squeezed. Not to mention Parker underperforming Labour as a whole.

I'd still rather be Labour in this environment, but given the 2021 polling error in London, you'd need some real ego to rest on your laurels...

[Oryxslayer]

Is it possible BBC or Sky News will report results of local by elections in councils where there isn’t a scheduled election?

Maybe if the result does something important to local power or the national narrative? I don't think so. However,  the twitter reporters which do cover local contests year round (BritainElects for example) will have the results of solitary by-elections in non-participating councils.

[CumbrianLefty]

Not the worst set of numbers for Street. Equally positive with Tory/Lab voters is pretty solid, and in an FPTP election, I'm sure the Reform numbers will be squeezed. Not to mention Parker underperforming Labour as a whole.

I'd still rather be Labour in this environment, but given the 2021 polling error in London, you'd need some real ego to rest on your laurels...

Though he might have more chance under the old system than FPTP!

There are LibDem and Green votes to target as well as Reform, and tbh I wouldn't place too much on the London polls in 2021 being inaccurate given that Covid was still majorly complicating things then.

What we *can* take from this poll is that the strikingly widespread belief (from Labour people as well as Tories) that Street would be "easily" re-elected may not have been that well founded in reality.

[JimJamUK]

I’m not saying it’s wrong, but the ability of Redfield and Wilton to always produce relatively flat polling in the cross tabs (in this case, equal approval by party) is not comforting…

[Blair]

The funny thing is that Labours vote is basically the same as it was in 2017 and 2021 I think- and as CL said Street would have had a good chance under AV to do quite well.

I’d expect it to be closer but it’s a sign of the Times that Street who is a popular, respected and quietly competent figure is treated like a semi god.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Street slightly outperformed what you'd expect from a generic Tory in 2016 and 2021, but only slightly. The idea that he is an electoral juggernaught seems to owe more to London journalists having heard of him than it does to any detailed examination of the political attitudes of Black Country residents.